Burakovsky is healthy again, and is about equal to Simmonds, but cheaper, and RFA, so hard pass.

Start over with Bowey and a 4th, or with Jaskin and a 2nd. Either way, Philly has to retain half, to play ball. There's a quarter of a season left, so the actual retained salary comes out to about half a million. Philly can dump in a bust on a one way deal with a year remaining to neutralize cost, if getting younger isn't enough motivation.


Explanation: Burakovsky's peak is 17 goals, all at even strength. Simmonds' best two single season ESG totals are 19 and 17. Same size. Same style. Decent puck carriers with accurate wrist shots, when they get the time and space to use them.

I just like moving Burakovsky for a rental. He's a good player but doesn't have a spot on the roster anymore. Simmonds plays a heavier game which is what the third line on the Caps needs. Change of scenery will be good for both of them. You could make the 3rd rounder into a 4th rounder as well.

You missed January and February. He scored seven even strength points in nine games, starting on the fourth line, and working his way up to the third line. That streak, he was on pace for 64 even strength points. Last year, four NHL players finished with 64 even strength points: McDavid, Giroux, Kucherov, and MacKinnon.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

Now you say: "But he's inconsistent. Lots of guys his age score more points"

Then I say, "he's eighth in his draft class in career goals and eleventh in career points."

Then you say, "Oh. Sorry. I must have been thinking of some other Andre Burakovsky. Washington should keep this one."

9 games is too small of a sample size. Do I think he is inconsistent? Yes. He has had injury problems in the past due to his size. I think he would fit in better with the team if Vrana wan't outperfoming him. The he is playing it is impossible to put burakovsky higher than the third line. He will thrive being a top 6 forward on another team but he cant play a heavy third line game as well as the Caps need him to. Also, moving a $3 million cap hit off the books helps in getting a guy like simmonds

I keep seeing you say "he is 8th in his draft class" and to that I say, maybe it was a very weak draft. This argument doesn't hold water IMO. If you want to argue like that, Simmonds is #4 in his.

I would be very hesitant trading a young question mark like Bura to a division rival, especially at his young age. It could end up really burning us in the future. Especially not for an older rental. I bet the Flyers would be more than happy to do this..

I agree. That's the only part of the equation that makes this a tough sell to the Capitals.

So it'd be a great trade if the age difference were one or two years, instead of six. If we consider their values in terms of redraft positions, you're saying Washington gets one year older for each spot they move up. By career best ESG, though, they get three years older for each one extra even strength goal. Since they're both primarily goal scorers, that's a ridiculously unfair trade.

In playoff goals and points, Burakovsky is 2nd and 3rd in his draft class. Guentzel has had some decent linemates, though. Like, better than Eller and Connolly, I think.

It also wasn't a weak draft class. Burakovsky's got a couple more goals than Domi or Mantha, and way more than Lehkonen. He's got three more even strength points than Drouin, and three fewer than Wennberg, ranking 9th. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20022003&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&draftYear=2013&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

No one will confuse Burakovsky with MacKinnon, Monahan, Horvat, Nurse, or Jones. Elias Lindholm is putting some distance between them this year. Some guys having hot seasons this year who haven't done anything close to Burakovsky, career, include Goldobin, Motte, Morrissey, Pulock, and Duclair. None of them has half of Burakovsky's career points. Because he is actually, in spite of some injuries, incredibly consistent.

So if you won't offer Simmonds for Morrissey, Pulock, Drouin, or Wennberg, maybe take it down the road? The sale ended at New Years.

But, again, the Caps do have a good young player available in Madison Bowey, who was a point a game defenseman for two year in juniors, and has 18 points in his first 84 NHL games. If they're happy with a third defensive pair of Orpik and Djoos, and if they're happy calling up Siegenthaler for depth in the playoffs, then they can afford to possibly deal Bowey for a rental.

Alternatively, the Caps' system is thin on center prospects. If you want to trade Burakovsky for Frost, I'm sure the Caps happily add a 2nd for Simmonds.

Look, I am not arguing the value, I am arguing against your argument. Comparing players to their draft class is meaningless.

Trading a 24 year old with one season of 17 even strength goals for a 30 year old with two is troll-level bad.

Bura for Frost or not at all.

If Philly creates cap space in Washington that way, then sure, Simmer for a 2nd. Great.

I mean, the Caps have great offense and a great power play. They don't need Simmonds. Would they love to have him? Of course! But what's he gonna cost next year?

Again...I am not arguing the value. I wouldn't trade Burakovsky for Simmonds either. I am arguing your argument that he shouldn't be traded based off where he is compared to his draft class. How you do related to your draft class doesn't determine value.

Simmonds should be treated as a pure rental.. no resign. Also, Bura does not play on either PP or PK. simmonds could be used in a PP role on the 2nd PP in place of wilson (grinding in front of the net).

Both teams take care of a need. Wash gets added depth for the 3rd line and possibly the PP. Philly gets a young capable player and a draft pick for the future.

I like Simmonds, sure. Burakovsky is just six years younger and already as good. When you say he hasn't played PK yet, fun fact: check who leads the Caps in 4-on-5 corsi for percentage. Look it up on Natural Stat Trick. You're welcome.

So, again, if the price for a rental on Simmonds is Jaskin and a 2nd, great. If it's Bowey and a 4th, okay. Losing Burakovsky to add Simmonds does not add any skill to the team.

Thanks. Glad we agree.

Yeah... it's tricky to know at what age guys' performance against their peers becomes significant. Certainly, I think, whether they mean to or not, that's what the Hall of Fame voters really see. So at some point in guys' development, comparison to a peer group becomes meaningful. Whether it is by 23, with big differences in ice time? I don't know. But it's the only counterargument to the constant chorus of Caps fans calling every European player this team drafts "inconsistent."

Bowey+2nd = Jensen+5th

Bowey+4th for Simmonds 50% retained... So incredibly far off on player valuation it's barely believable.

Thanks. Yeah. Deadline prices can escalate pretty quickly, but part of the fun of posting here is to try to guess what would be fair, not just how bad it'll get.

But so we're clear, are you saying Simmonds, this year, is better than Jensen? He might be. But it's so rare that you make any statement of your own about player value, that I just want to be sure I heard one. It's a pretty safe bet, sure. But let's get the great biglite on record with finally haveing one opinion?

Also: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1051702

I just recently posted 2 AGMs, that's not enough value opinion of my own for you? Or like in everything else on here are you just vastly off base and talking nonsense.

How come you responded to this one but not the other one where you directly said that Bowey was more valuable than Jensen, yet was obviously proven wrong with the 2nd vs 5th aspect?

Are you ever right about anything?

And yes, Simmonds is considerably more valuable than Jensen.

Your conclusions on this site are probably in the neighborhood of 7 for 2,459,674.

There are 31 teams. 20 or so are within reach of the playoffs at the deadline each year. Five more think they are. Whatever players are available from the five or so teams that decide to sell will get bid on by like five teams. They all go for ridiculously high prices. That doesn't mean that's exactly what they're always worth. Bowey, long term, should turn out better than Jensen, on a team that has time to develop him, but time has value, and the Caps want to win right now. They made a good trade.

Trying to predict trade deadline prices is like trying to guess gas prices during a shortage, in the middle of tourist season. Even the gas station owners sometimes have no idea what they'll be able to charge.

Detroit fans on here were sure they'd trade Jensen for a 3rd in December. Who knows.