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Panarin deal that doesnt wreck the Caps

Créé par: Eli
Équipe: 2018-19 Capitals de Washington
Date de création initiale: 13 févr. 2019
Publié: 13 févr. 2019
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Or does it? Niskanen and Burakovsky are way tougher than the guys coming back. Panarin has half as many hits and blocks as Burakovsky. Murray has a tenth as many as Niskanen. But Panarin's pretty good at offense, if his teammates can get him the puck. I started out trying to put Panarin on the top line, but it just isn't realistic. They'd never get the puck.

Is Panarin going to add enough on line 2 and power play 2 to make up for Niskanen's leadership and Burakovsky's potential?
Transactions
WSH
  1. Murray, Ryan
  2. Panarin, Artemi
Détails additionnels:
Caps' total cap hit goes up 75k. So they end up having to just bridge Vrana to be able to extend both of these guys. Is that worth it?
CBJ
  1. Burakovsky, André
  2. Niskanen, Matt
Détails additionnels:
Would Niskanen waive for a bubble team with an established #1RHD? Maybe not, although he is from the Midwest, so maybe he likes the idea of a small town atmosphere, closer to home?
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 12
#1
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The jackets laugh at you. I am all for panarin but this definitely feels like a troll post. It would take at least Burk, Johansen, and a 1st
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 15
#2
Islanders Fan
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Dead serious not even sure that lands you Ryan Murray
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 17
#3
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That's not close to what they'd want for Panarin. The Jackets have no need for Niskanen, and Burakovsky would be behind a ton of other guys on the depth chart. The Jackets say that they want Samsonov in this deal honestly, or at the very least Vrana + a bunch. And there's no way the Caps will give that up for a rental in Panarin.
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 29
#4
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
The jackets laugh at you. I am all for panarin but this definitely feels like a troll post. It would take at least Burk, Johansen, and a 1st


Quoting: joshelkin
Dead serious not even sure that lands you Ryan Murray


Burakovsky has as many even strength goals as Bjorkstrand and Duclair put together: 50. Same draft, same round. As good as both. He's 8th in the draft in goals, between Drouin and Mantha. He's 2nd in playoff goals, behind just Guentzel. A lot of the guys behind him have more top six experience.

Burakovsky has seven even strenght points in his last ten games on third and fourth lines, and would re-sign with Columbus below $4M aav. Panarin has nine even strength points in his last ten games on a top line, and publicly announced he is not re-signing in Columbus without testing free agency. Burakovsky is younger.

Niskanen has more points, both even strength and total, than Murray, every year, ever. He's older.

These moves balance each other out. Everybody loves to hate on Niskanen but he's the Caps' leader in defensive zone starts and SHTOI this year. He's playing top minutes against top competition just like he did to help them win the Cup. He's also better on offense than Murray, and way, way tougher.

On average, the two guys the Jackets get are two years older, and 50% more likely to stick around next year.

@krakowitz can you think of any reason the Caps would give up two guys the Caps can afford next year for one guy they can't? The only way they take on Panarin is if they get a fair value offer on Niskanen, that clears cap space. Ryan Murray is that offer that lets the Caps trade Burakovsky for Panarin. Maybe at that point they throw in a 2nd? I don't know. But with most CBJ posts trying to rent Panarin out to non-playoff teams in Florida and Chicago, I don't put much weight in what CBJ fans hope to get for someone who just publicly announced he's leaving.
13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 38
#5
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I don't think Panarin is going to get a king's ransom. But geez, that's a horrendous offer. You can accumulate stats all you want, Burakovsky is not a tough player. It doesn't matter if he's tougher than Panarin. Panarin is a superstar winger. If you compare their offensive output it's not even the same stratosphere.

Columbus doesn't need Niskanen. They have shutdown guys and their D is fine as is. Why add Niskanen's salary?
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 38
#6
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Quoting: Eli
Burakovsky has as many even strength goals as Bjorkstrand and Duclair put together: 50. Same draft, same round. As good as both. He's 8th in the draft in goals, between Drouin and Mantha. He's 2nd in playoff goals, behind just Guentzel. A lot of the guys behind him have more top six experience.

Burakovsky has seven even strenght points in his last ten games on third and fourth lines, and would re-sign with Columbus below $4M aav. Panarin has nine even strength points in his last ten games on a top line, and publicly announced he is not re-signing in Columbus without testing free agency. Burakovsky is younger.

Niskanen has more points, both even strength and total, than Murray, every year, ever. He's older.

These moves balance each other out. Everybody loves to hate on Niskanen but he's the Caps' leader in defensive zone starts and SHTOI this year. He's playing top minutes against top competition just like he did to help them win the Cup. He's also better on offense than Murray, and way, way tougher.

On average, the two guys the Jackets get are two years older, and 50% more likely to stick around next year.

@krakowitz can you think of any reason the Caps would give up two guys the Caps can afford next year for one guy they can't? The only way they take on Panarin is if they get a fair value offer on Niskanen, that clears cap space. Ryan Murray is that offer that lets the Caps trade Burakovsky for Panarin. Maybe at that point they throw in a 2nd? I don't know. But with most CBJ posts trying to rent Panarin out to non-playoff teams in Florida and Chicago, I don't put much weight in what CBJ fans hope to get for someone who just publicly announced he's leaving.


Stop peddling Burakovsky. The dude has 16 points on the season. 16! The Jackets don't need Sampsonov. So to even make a respectable offer it would have to be Vrana, Siegenthaler, Johansen, and a 1st.
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13 févr. 2019 à 12 h 59
#7
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
The jackets laugh at you. I am all for panarin but this definitely feels like a troll post. It would take at least Burk, Johansen, and a 1st


... he then replies by seriously trying to defend the trade suggestion. What is it called when you misplace your clue?

Like the Islanders guy said, Niskanen and Burakovsky potentially don't even get you Murray alone.

But hey... Panaran is older than Burakovsky, while Niskanen is older than Murray... so the trade evens out.

flushed cheeks
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13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 0
#8
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Quoting: Jacketsman61
Stop peddling Burakovsky. The dude has 16 points on the season. 16! The Jackets don't need Sampsonov. So to even make a respectable offer it would have to be Vrana, Siegenthaler, Johansen, and a 1st.


The above trade comes from a Blue Jackets fan. Burakovsky would have more points this year if some thug from Columbus hadn't broken his wrist in the playoffs, and I see no reason the Caps should trade him.
13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 2
#9
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Quoting: Jacketsman61
Stop peddling Burakovsky. The dude has 16 points on the season. 16! The Jackets don't need Sampsonov. So to even make a respectable offer it would have to be Vrana, Siegenthaler, Johansen, and a 1st.


You're going to let Panarin walk for nothing. Good luck with that.
13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 5
#10
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Not even close to fair, I understand Niskanen has been valuable for the caps however he has little trade value especially with his age. Both panarin and Murray are worth way more than Burakovsky and Niskanen. No deal
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13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 9
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Quoting: Candyman16
Not even close to fair, I understand Niskanen has been valuable for the caps however he has little trade value especially with his age. Both panarin and Murray are worth way more than Burakovsky and Niskanen. No deal


Okay. I don't see the Caps stressing about whether or not Burakovsky or Niskanen will show up in the playoffs, or about whether they'll be around next year, so that's fine. Thanks.
13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 16
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Quoting: Eli
Okay. I don't see the Caps stressing about whether or not Burakovsky or Niskanen will show up in the playoffs, or about whether they'll be around next year, so that's fine. Thanks.


Yea I get that big time, I think Burakovsky gets moved for a second rounder just so you guys get something off of him
13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 25
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Quoting: Candyman16
Yea I get that big time, I think Burakovsky gets moved for a second rounder just so you guys get something off of him


Maybe this summer, depending how much term they decide on with Vrana. He's got four points in his last four games. He finished last year's playoffs with six points in six games, including two goals in game seven against the Lightning. I don't think they'll trade him for a 2nd pick right now. Possibly a 1st, if they have cheaper rentals lined up, who they feel provide similar offense?

I think in the last week, most Caps fans on here decided Burakovsky gets a Q.O.
13 févr. 2019 à 13 h 51
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You forgot to add DSP and Boyd, but I guess that could wreck the Caps given that DSP scored all those goals in the playoffs and Boyd could be a top line player. Might sweeten the deal for Lumbus.
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13 févr. 2019 à 14 h 7
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Quoting: Boush
You forgot to add DSP and Boyd, but I guess that could wreck the Caps given that DSP scored all those goals in the playoffs and Boyd could be a top line player. Might sweeten the deal for Lumbus.


Orpik is the greatest D since sliced bread... It could be a 1-for-1 for the bread man.
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13 févr. 2019 à 14 h 11
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are you forgetting to throw in two first rounders or something? you aren't sending them very much at all. Enough to get murray but not Panarin
13 févr. 2019 à 14 h 18
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Quoting: Eli
You're going to let Panarin walk for nothing. Good luck with that.


I didn't realize that a poo offer for the Caps was the only offer that would be on the table. So you are saying that no other team will make any kind of offer. That's a bold statement. Nearly as grounded in reality as this AGM.
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13 févr. 2019 à 14 h 24
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I still think Columbus should keep Panarin. Treat him like a rental only he already has chemistry.

Jackets are DEEP from a development standpoint. Go hard after Stone with Panarin's money. I would not stress myself unless someone offers an absurd amount.
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13 févr. 2019 à 14 h 53
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Quoting: CharlieFoxtrot
I still think Columbus should keep Panarin. Treat him like a rental only he already has chemistry.

Jackets are DEEP from a development standpoint. Go hard after Stone with Panarin's money. I would not stress myself unless someone offers an absurd amount.


That's one good option. Another is that they trade Bobrovsky for a good player who isn't trying to relive "The Decision" and Panarin for the same, and keep building.

Can other teams outbid this offer? Sure. Of the point/game rentals available, is there anyone who hits less? I mean, Burakovsky has 62 more career hits than Panarin.

Jackets fans have targeted all the Caps' top prospects all year, on the grounds that Panarin speaks Russian. Dimitrij Jaskin speaks Russian. So does Anisimov. So might Kreider.

Can Washington afford to sweeten this? Sure. Do they particularly need to?
14 févr. 2019 à 11 h 44
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@Candyman16 @Jacketsman61 I don't know if you know, but three of the comments on here are from Penguins fans, who would have to play both of us in the playoffs. If they hate this trade that much, it might be win-win. In another thread, I started analyzing a comparison between Niskanen and Pietrangelo, to explain why I think Niskanen is a pretty valuable defenseman:

Pietrangelo's much better at second assists, on ice corsi, and XGF%, which reflect the number of times the crease gets cleared by Edmundson, and number of shots that get deflected on net by Maroon and Schenn--stuff Pietrangelo doesn't affect.

Niskanen blows him away in primary points, zone starts, and shooting percentage--stuff he actually goes out on the ice and does, by himself, with his big boy pants on.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1

The simpler explanation is that over the last two and a half seasons, he's among the top thirty defensemen in minutes, defensive zone starts, and even strength points. He's a big part of how the Caps won the Cup, and two President's trophies in three years. I think a #1 defenseman with term remaining is worth Panarin, so then the question is just whether Burakovsky is worth Ryan Murray.

Penguins fans clearly hope this doesn't happen. Maybe it makes both teams better?
14 févr. 2019 à 13 h 3
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Quoting: Eli
@Candyman16 @Jacketsman61 I don't know if you know, but three of the comments on here are from Penguins fans, who would have to play both of us in the playoffs. If they hate this trade that much, it might be win-win. In another thread, I started analyzing a comparison between Niskanen and Pietrangelo, to explain why I think Niskanen is a pretty valuable defenseman:

Pietrangelo's much better at second assists, on ice corsi, and XGF%, which reflect the number of times the crease gets cleared by Edmundson, and number of shots that get deflected on net by Maroon and Schenn--stuff Pietrangelo doesn't affect.

Niskanen blows him away in primary points, zone starts, and shooting percentage--stuff he actually goes out on the ice and does, by himself, with his big boy pants on.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1

The simpler explanation is that over the last two and a half seasons, he's among the top thirty defensemen in minutes, defensive zone starts, and even strength points. He's a big part of how the Caps won the Cup, and two President's trophies in three years. I think a #1 defenseman with term remaining is worth Panarin, so then the question is just whether Burakovsky is worth Ryan Murray.

Penguins fans clearly hope this doesn't happen. Maybe it makes both teams better?


Pens window is closing rapidly. They have not drafted high enough recently to fill in the gaps they have created in their roster by trying to remain contenders. So any small change in a positive direction would give the Pens fans problems. Not trying to dog on them but pointing out a truth. Jarmo is a smart and savvy GM. He is not going to trade a player like Panarin and receive less than maximum value. While you view Burakovsky as a good player, his points don't seem to indicate that. I am just saying the Jackets would have no interest in him if it means giving Panarin to a division rival in which we are battling for a playoff spot against.
14 févr. 2019 à 13 h 40
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Quoting: Jacketsman61
Pens window is closing rapidly. They have not drafted high enough recently to fill in the gaps they have created in their roster by trying to remain contenders. So any small change in a positive direction would give the Pens fans problems. Not trying to dog on them but pointing out a truth. Jarmo is a smart and savvy GM. He is not going to trade a player like Panarin and receive less than maximum value. While you view Burakovsky as a good player, his points don't seem to indicate that. I am just saying the Jackets would have no interest in him if it means giving Panarin to a division rival in which we are battling for a playoff spot against.


Then we'd better make sure it's win-win. smile https://www.nhl.com/standings/2018/wildcard

A couple days ago I checked even strength points over their last ten games, and Panarin was ahead of Burakovsky 9 to 7. Given the difference in icetime and linemates, I don't think that's a big difference.

The Caps don't bid Burakovsky for Panarin if they can't extend Panarin. So it's a question of giving fair value for Niskanen so they can afford Panarin, without retention. If I' a little off on the total value, I'd welcome suggestions, but looking at Burakovsky's point totals after the Jackets slashed his wrist causing multiple fractures in game two of the playoffs is just ridiculous. Look at how good he is now that he's healed and rebuilt some strength in his arm. He's almost as good as Panarin, and will be an RFA. So that's a pretty good return.
14 févr. 2019 à 13 h 52
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Quoting: Eli
@Candyman16 @Jacketsman61 I don't know if you know, but three of the comments on here are from Penguins fans, who would have to play both of us in the playoffs. If they hate this trade that much, it might be win-win. In another thread, I started analyzing a comparison between Niskanen and Pietrangelo, to explain why I think Niskanen is a pretty valuable defenseman:

Pietrangelo's much better at second assists, on ice corsi, and XGF%, which reflect the number of times the crease gets cleared by Edmundson, and number of shots that get deflected on net by Maroon and Schenn--stuff Pietrangelo doesn't affect.

Niskanen blows him away in primary points, zone starts, and shooting percentage--stuff he actually goes out on the ice and does, by himself, with his big boy pants on.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1

The simpler explanation is that over the last two and a half seasons, he's among the top thirty defensemen in minutes, defensive zone starts, and even strength points. He's a big part of how the Caps won the Cup, and two President's trophies in three years. I think a #1 defenseman with term remaining is worth Panarin, so then the question is just whether Burakovsky is worth Ryan Murray.

Penguins fans clearly hope this doesn't happen. Maybe it makes both teams better?


haha you think Niskanin equals Panarin? lmfao that is hilarious. I have seen some ludicrous claims on here, some were just troll attempts, the funny and sad part is you seriously think that.

maybe we think the trade is dumb cause we are viewing it as unbiased rather than trying to scam a team out of their best player for mediocre players?
This trade makes the jackets significantly worse, to the fact they might not make the playoffs if they unload. Even if they do it would guarantee they don't make it out of the first round, either to the caps(who would be their first round opponent right now...) or to the islanders, penguins, or lightning.
14 févr. 2019 à 14 h 55
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Keep proving my point, Pittsburgh. smile
3 déc. 2019 à 8 h 53
#25
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
The jackets laugh at you. I am all for panarin but this definitely feels like a troll post. It would take at least Burk, Johansen, and a 1st


Quoting: joshelkin
Dead serious not even sure that lands you Ryan Murray


Quoting: CharlieFoxtrot
I don't think Panarin is going to get a king's ransom. But geez, that's a horrendous offer. You can accumulate stats all you want, Burakovsky is not a tough player. It doesn't matter if he's tougher than Panarin. Panarin is a superstar winger. If you compare their offensive output it's not even the same stratosphere.

Columbus doesn't need Niskanen. They have shutdown guys and their D is fine as is. Why add Niskanen's salary?


Looking back at this Spring 2019 post, on December 3rd, 2019.

Panarin has 33 points. Burakovsky and Niskanen together have 33 points. Murray has four points, just two more than Kukan or Nutivaara. I wouldn't trade DJoos for him.

Quoting: Yojimbo
I didn't realize that a poo offer for the Caps was the only offer that would be on the table. So you are saying that no other team will make any kind of offer. That's a bold statement. Nearly as grounded in reality as this AGM.


Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!

Quoting: awesome
haha you think Niskanin equals Panarin? lmfao that is hilarious. I have seen some ludicrous claims on here, some were just troll attempts, the funny and sad part is you seriously think that.


Philly is in the playoff hunt with Niskanen's tough, two-way play leading the way. Columbus without Panarin, Niskanen, or Burakovsky, is in the hunt for Lafreniere. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Quoting: krakowitz
That's not close to what they'd want for Panarin. The Jackets have no need for Niskanen, and Burakovsky would be behind a ton of other guys on the depth chart. The Jackets say that they want Samsonov in this deal honestly, or at the very least Vrana + a bunch. And there's no way the Caps will give that up for a rental in Panarin.


Quoting: Jacketsman61
Stop peddling Burakovsky. The dude has 16 points on the season. 16! The Jackets don't need Sampsonov. So to even make a respectable offer it would have to be Vrana, Siegenthaler, Johansen, and a 1st.


Siegenthaler is already looking better than Murray. Playing 50% more PK. Scoring more. Just needs to get his endurance up to play those big #4 minutes Murray's earned (I'm kidding. He can play 19 minutes a night, but the Caps have Orlov and Kempny, and don't need him to). Vrana has 23 points and is 23. Burakovsky has 21 points and is almost 24. They're improving. Panarin has 33 points and is 28, likely at his peak and most of the extra points above these guys are due to more power play time. At evens he has five more points than Vrana, and seven more than Burakovsky this year, now that all three play in at least top-six roles. But what I really love here, and I'm going to quote it again, is this:

Quoting: Jacketsman61
The Jackets don't need Sampsonov.


I love when I'm not the craziest guy in my own thread. Like, I may have a screw or two loose, but you? You're brave. Well played, sir. Carry on!
 
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