Getting philosophical on contracts - read description or dont post - CapFriendly

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

This is just getting silly, by the time a contract is announced people on here will be saying that the NHL is creating a new amendment in the CBA called the "M&M effect" and it would allow teams to exceed the maximum contract level only for offer sheets for Matthews or Marner, then both will get offers of 145 billion dollars a year to play for franchises that don't have the money to afford to pay the contracts they are definitely going to offer these players.

This is all just getting dumb. Not meant to be directed at you sir, more the whole community of Matthews and Marner will get 30 million together.

See...my whole point is that...no matter what people post their contracts to be on this site...there's at least an argument to be made for it.

I know you are self-admittedly very stuck in your ways/opinions...and so seeing those numbers sets you off a bit. Just trying to focus more on the 'beauty in the eye of the beholder' concept and, without knowing where the priorities lie for the players themselves (money, where they live, chance to win, team chemistry, etc), there's ways to justify both high and low what each of us think their next contract will be

In no way, shape or form am I suggesting the contracts shown in the lineup are what I think will end up being the case

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11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 3

#3

Banni

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Quoting: Juice

See...my whole point is that...no matter what people post their contracts to be on this site...there's at least an argument to be made for it.

I know you are self-admittedly very stuck in your ways/opinions...and so seeing those numbers sets you off a bit. Just trying to focus more on the 'beauty in the eye of the beholder' concept and, without knowing where the priorities lie for the players themselves (money, where they live, chance to win, team chemistry, etc), there's ways to justify both high and low what each of us think their next contract will be

In no way, shape or form am I suggesting the contracts shown in the lineup are what I think will end up being the case

That is a very dangerous mentality that too many people have now. You can take almost any thought and people will find a way to rationalize it. This is why we have a flat earth society. Rationalizing, irrational things doesn't make them correct.

If anyone wants to offer 1 player 15 million dollars a year, let them and let them take that player because that is just a terrible plan. Unless teams start running 1-3 high paid players and bunch of league minimum deals, that model will never work.

11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 14

#4

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

That is a very dangerous mentality that too many people have now. You can take almost any thought and people will find a way to rationalize it. This is why we have a flat earth society. Rationalizing, irrational things doesn't make them correct.

If anyone wants to offer 1 player 15 million dollars a year, let them and let them take that player because that is just a terrible plan. Unless teams start running 1-3 high paid players and bunch of league minimum deals, that model will never work.

Conversely...I think it's a dangerous mentality to not let others have their own opinion and hear them out so long as they're not harming anyone. You don't have to agree with them...and can draw your own conclusions on their sanity if they think the world is flat...but...

Is it out of the realm of possibility to think that a professional athlete is more concerned about $$ in their pocket over anything else? Especially if the team offering them the moon plays out of the city they grew up in and the player cheered for as a kid? And would it be crazy to think that a team...with tons of cap space and in dire need of finding a way to sell its fan base on a reason to come out and support them...would invest millions in a player that could be the poster boy for them and potentially bring in a stream of revenues that far exceed the contract they are paying him?

There's a difference between possible and probable.

11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 28

#5

Banni

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Quoting: Juice

Conversely...I think it's a dangerous mentality to not let others have their own opinion and hear them out so long as they're not harming anyone. You don't have to agree with them...and can draw your own conclusions on their sanity if they think the world is flat...but...

Is it out of the realm of possibility to think that a professional athlete is more concerned about $$ in their pocket over anything else? Especially if the team offering them the moon plays out of the city they grew up in and the player cheered for as a kid? And would it be crazy to think that a team...with tons of cap space and in dire need of finding a way to sell its fan base on a reason to come out and support them...would invest millions in a player that could be the poster boy for them and potentially bring in a stream of revenues that far exceed the contract they are paying him?

There's a difference between possible and probable.

Of course and you are not wrong, many people are definitely motivated by money and wealth. Still though the business case behind throwing around money like that is beyond short sighted. But whatever happens happens. No use worrying about it.

11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 41

#6

BCAPP

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I've seen a lot of arguments that Marner should be compared to Kucherov and should get that sort of money, but it isn't the right comparable. If Dubas let's their camp use guys like Kucherov (at least his third contract) they've already totally screwed up.

Marner is a 22 year old signing his second contract as an RFA with four more years of RFA. Kucherov did sign as an RFA but he had arbitration eligibility and just 1 year left as an RFA. He could have just done as Stone or Trouba did and got a 1 year contract and gone UFA.

The top wingers to have signed RFA contracts in this CBA are Johnny Gaudreau at just under 7 million and Tarasenko at 7.5 million. Those are his best comparables.

Draisatl and Eichel are both centres so are really in a different conversation.

I get there is cap inflation and Marner is that damn good and I expect him to come in in the 9s. But Dubas and Leafs management need to be firm who his comparables are. You don't compare an RFA at 22 with UFA contracts at least not for his RFA years (ie an 8 year contract means 4 years of that contract can be compared to UFA numbers)

11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 42

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

That is a very dangerous mentality that too many people have now. You can take almost any thought and people will find a way to rationalize it. This is why we have a flat earth society. Rationalizing, irrational things doesn't make them correct.

If anyone wants to offer 1 player 15 million dollars a year, let them and let them take that player because that is just a terrible plan. Unless teams start running 1-3 high paid players and bunch of league minimum deals, that model will never work.

I don’t think that anybody can be dogmatic on what Marner/Matthews/Kapanen/Johnsson will make. If we’re honest, Matthews is worth 14 million, and Marner is worth 12. Those are realistic numbers. Johnsson is worth 3 million and Kapanen is worth 5. Those numbers aren’t over statements, it’s just their market value. How much of a discount do you really think they’ll take to play in Toronto? I really think highly of those guys, but let’s be honest. Matthews and Marner hold all the cards and I’d not be surprised if a team actually offer sheeted Kapanen. The only thing that would hold him to Toronto is that they are a contender. Matthews and Marner can make whatever they want. Why would they take a 3 million dollar discount? Nobody has taken that much less before, not even Kuch. He took 3 less than McDavid, which was around a 1-2 million discount. The cheapest that I could possibly see Marner and Matthews taking is 10 for Marner and 12 for Matthews. Marner might take 9.5 if you’re lucky. There is no justification for either to take the 8.5 and 11 million trash that I see all the time.

11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 50

#8

Banni

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Quoting: NucksFanForLife

I don’t think that anybody can be dogmatic on what Marner/Matthews/Kapanen/Johnsson will make. If we’re honest, Matthews is worth 14 million, and Marner is worth 12. Those are realistic numbers. Johnsson is worth 3 million and Kapanen is worth 5. Those numbers aren’t over statements, it’s just their market value. How much of a discount do you really think they’ll take to play in Toronto? I really think highly of those guys, but let’s be honest. Matthews and Marner hold all the cards and I’d not be surprised if a team actually offer sheeted Kapanen. The only thing that would hold him to Toronto is that they are a contender. Matthews and Marner can make whatever they want. Why would they take a 3 million dollar discount? Nobody has taken that much less before, not even Kuch. He took 3 less than McDavid, which was around a 1-2 million discount. The cheapest that I could possibly see Marner and Matthews taking is 10 for Marner and 12 for Matthews. Marner might take 9.5 if you’re lucky. There is no justification for either to take the 8.5 and 11 million trash that I see all the time.

I literally have no words.

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11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 52

#9

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Quoting: BCAPP

I've seen a lot of arguments that Marner should be compared to Kucherov and should get that sort of money, but it isn't the right comparable. If Dubas let's their camp use guys like Kucherov (at least his third contract) they've already totally screwed up.

Marner is a 22 year old signing his second contract as an RFA with four more years of RFA. Kucherov did sign as an RFA but he had arbitration eligibility and just 1 year left as an RFA. He could have just done as Stone or Trouba did and got a 1 year contract and gone UFA.

The top wingers to have signed RFA contracts in this CBA are Johnny Gaudreau at just under 7 million and Tarasenko at 7.5 million. Those are his best comparables.

Draisatl and Eichel are both centres so are really in a different conversation.

I get there is cap inflation and Marner is that damn good and I expect him to come in in the 9s. But Dubas and Leafs management need to be firm who his comparables are. You don't compare an RFA at 22 with UFA contracts at least not for his RFA years (ie an 8 year contract means 4 years of that contract can be compared to UFA numbers)

This is a perfect example of how there's a reasonable argument for Marner coming in at a lower number.

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 2

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

I literally have no words.

Why? Marner on a Gaudreau contract is 9.5 and on a Taresenko contract is 11.5. Matthews on a McDavid contract is 13, on an Eichel deal is 13.5, and on a Crosby deal is 12. So Marner at a 9.5-11.5 and Matthews at a 12-13.5 window makes sense. I just don't see either taking a 25% discount. Do you?

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 2

#11

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Quoting: NucksFanForLife

I don’t think that anybody can be dogmatic on what Marner/Matthews/Kapanen/Johnsson will make. If we’re honest, Matthews is worth 14 million, and Marner is worth 12. Those are realistic numbers. Johnsson is worth 3 million and Kapanen is worth 5. Those numbers aren’t over statements, it’s just their market value. How much of a discount do you really think they’ll take to play in Toronto? I really think highly of those guys, but let’s be honest. Matthews and Marner hold all the cards and I’d not be surprised if a team actually offer sheeted Kapanen. The only thing that would hold him to Toronto is that they are a contender. Matthews and Marner can make whatever they want. Why would they take a 3 million dollar discount? Nobody has taken that much less before, not even Kuch. He took 3 less than McDavid, which was around a 1-2 million discount. The cheapest that I could possibly see Marner and Matthews taking is 10 for Marner and 12 for Matthews. Marner might take 9.5 if you’re lucky. There is no justification for either to take the 8.5 and 11 million trash that I see all the time.

And this is a good example of how there's a reasonable argument for Matthews and Marner coming in at a higher number.

To say there's 'no justification' however...is wrong. Don't get me wrong, I agree $11m and $8.5m will be too low...but they can be justified. You see this happen more often in NBA where championships can be bought more easily...but why did DeMarcus Cousins sign for $1m with Golden State?

What if a conversation with Matthews' camp already took place this past summer about an $11m figure identical to Tavares? (I don't think this happened..but possible).

What if the leafs have a chance to add Pietrangelo at a reasonable price in the off season and they have conversations with Matthews and Marner about adding him. Let's say Matthews has already agreed at around $12 and Marner at $9. They're told if they're each willing to knock another $1m off the AAV, they can add Pietrangelo. How commited are each of them to helping the team build a winner? What if those deals are over 6 years instead of 8?

Again...probable? No. Possible? Yes.

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 2

#12

F50marco

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I keep saying this every time I see it:

Players don't HAVE to sign offer sheets. He can decline their offer and continue to negotiate with TO. They can still negotiate a 12M contract that ticks all the other boxes for Matthews after being offered an offer sheet.

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 3

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Quoting: Juice

This is a perfect example of how there's a reasonable argument for Marner coming in at a lower number.

But even Gaudreau and Taresenko's contracts adjusted by points and cap ceiling is still 9.5-11.5 based on Marner slowing down and scoring 45 points over the next 40 games.

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 6

#14

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Quoting: F50marco

I keep saying this every time I see it:

Players don't HAVE to sign offer sheets. He can decline their offer and continue to negotiate with TO. They can still negotiate a 12M contract that ticks all the other boxes for Matthews after being offered an offer sheet.

This is and isn't part of my point that I'm making. I've argued the exact same thing that a player receiving and offer sheet and him actually signing it are very different beasts...depends entirely on what the priorities of the player are...something we have no idea about. Entirely possible..maybe even likely...that Matthews has 0 interest in playing for Arizona...but signing a $15m offer sheet with them isn't impossible

The purpose of the thread and my description is that an argument can be made for high and low figures.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 10

#15

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Quoting: NucksFanForLife

But even Gaudreau and Taresenko's contracts adjusted by points and cap ceiling is still 9.5-11.5 based on Marner slowing down and scoring 45 points over the next 40 games.

I'm not challenging you on your opinion that they deserve higher contracts. Is it not possible that...if when Tarasenko and Gaudreau signed...the Blues/Flames had star-studded rosters and considered to be a cup contender...would either guy be willing to accept a bit lower to help the team either add (or prevent from losing) key pieces?

Again...probable? Maybe not. Possible?....

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 11

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Quoting: Juice

And this is a good example of how there's a reasonable argument for Matthews and Marner coming in at a higher number.

To say there's 'no justification' however...is wrong. Don't get me wrong, I agree $11m and $8.5m will be too low...but they can be justified. You see this happen more often in NBA where championships can be bought more easily...but why did DeMarcus Cousins sign for $1m with Golden State?

What if a conversation with Matthews' camp already took place this past summer about an $11m figure identical to Tavares? (I don't think this happened..but possible).

What if the leafs have a chance to add Pietrangelo at a reasonable price in the off season and they have conversations with Matthews and Marner about adding him. Let's say Matthews has already agreed at around $12 and Marner at $9. They're told if they're each willing to knock another $1m off the AAV, they can add Pietrangelo. How commited are each of them to helping the team build a winner? What if those deals are over 6 years instead of 8?

Again...probable? No. Possible? Yes.

I agree, but it's never happened in the NHL. Not at a 25% discount anyways. Guys will take less, but Matthews won't take less than Toews and Marner won't take less than Stone. Yes I think that they will take a discount, and probably even up to 2 million off what they could make. Marner and Matthews could have a legit shot at the cup in Colorado (though I don't think that anyone will offer sheet them) and make 3-4 million more. They know that whatever team they're on will do well, so I guess it's a question of money versus winning. In which case most choose money and a semi-contender, but some do choose winning. Being dogmatic about a maximum isn't right, but we can definitely set a basement. 9 and 11.5 million is a basement IMO.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 12

#17

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Quoting: Juice

I'm not challenging you on your opinion that they deserve higher contracts. Is it not possible that...if when Tarasenko and Gaudreau signed...the Blues/Flames had star-studded rosters and considered to be a cup contender...would either guy be willing to accept a bit lower to help the team either add (or prevent from losing) key pieces?

Again...probable? Maybe not. Possible?....

It's possible, but certainly not probable.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 12

#18

Banni

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Quoting: NucksFanForLife

Why? Marner on a Gaudreau contract is 9.5 and on a Taresenko contract is 11.5. Matthews on a McDavid contract is 13, on an Eichel deal is 13.5, and on a Crosby deal is 12. So Marner at a 9.5-11.5 and Matthews at a 12-13.5 window makes sense. I just don't see either taking a 25% discount. Do you?

This whole percentages argument is just dumb. GM's aren't going to say, okay yeah Matthews is defintely worth more than McDavid, here's a blank cheque. Matthews will fall between Eichel and McDavid, that is the market. Marner if we are using comparables should be getting closer to Pastrnak money than Kucherov money. So look at around 7.5 - 8 million not 12. That is just silly. I understand what you are saying but its just not reality. If I was a GM and an agent came to me saying that, I'd just tell him to leave and come back when he wants to discuss this reasonably.

11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 15

#19

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Quoting: NucksFanForLife

I agree, but it's never happened in the NHL. Not at a 25% discount anyways. Guys will take less, but Matthews won't take less than Toews and Marner won't take less than Stone. Yes I think that they will take a discount, and probably even up to 2 million off what they could make. Marner and Matthews could have a legit shot at the cup in Colorado (though I don't think that anyone will offer sheet them) and make 3-4 million more. They know that whatever team they're on will do well, so I guess it's a question of money versus winning. In which case most choose money and a semi-contender, but some do choose winning. Being dogmatic about a maximum isn't right, but we can definitely set a basement. 9 and 11.5 million is a basement IMO.

I personally agree that those are absolute basement numbers too and anyone that believes otherwise is being overly optimistic. It's still not impossible for them to sign for lower tho.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 20

#20

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

This whole percentages argument is just dumb. GM's aren't going to say, okay yeah Matthews is defintely worth more than McDavid, here's a blank cheque. Matthews will fall between Eichel and McDavid, that is the market. Marner if we are using comparables should be getting closer to Pastrnak money than Kucherov money. So look at around 7.5 - 8 million not 12. That is just silly. I understand what you are saying but its just not reality. If I was a GM and an agent came to me saying that, I'd just tell him to leave and come back when he wants to discuss this reasonably.

I don't get how you can be so certain when you just saw what played out with Nylander.

Yes. The leafs would be wise to use your comparables in contract negotiations. I am highly doubtful your 'put my foot down' mentality will get either player to sign for the number you want.

IMO....If Matthews signs for $11.5 and Marner for $8m...it won't be because the M&M camps gave in and accepted those comparables...it will be because Dubas appealed to their sense of building a winner (aka. begged them)

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 34

#21

Banni

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Quoting: Juice

I don't get how you can be so certain when you just saw what played out with Nylander.

Yes. The leafs would be wise to use your comparables in contract negotiations. I am highly doubtful your 'put my foot down' mentality will get either player to sign for the number you want.

IMO....If Matthews signs for $11.5 and Marner for $8m...it won't be because the M&M camps gave in and accepted those comparables...it will be because Dubas appealed to their sense of building a winner (aka. begged them)

You are right, I can't be certain. I do believe though that most of the high end salary discussion comes from the media and fans of other teams who want to see the Leafs fail more than their own team succeed. There are people on here who think Matthews will absolutely get 14 million and Marner 12 million. That is just insane. How can teams possibly handle that sort of inflation?

Perhaps the middle class of NHL players will disappear and you'll either be a star making star money, or you'll be a depth guy making 3 million a year tops.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 40

#22

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

This whole percentages argument is just dumb. GM's aren't going to say, okay yeah Matthews is defintely worth more than McDavid, here's a blank cheque. Matthews will fall between Eichel and McDavid, that is the market. Marner if we are using comparables should be getting closer to Pastrnak money than Kucherov money. So look at around 7.5 - 8 million not 12. That is just silly. I understand what you are saying but its just not reality. If I was a GM and an agent came to me saying that, I'd just tell him to leave and come back when he wants to discuss this reasonably.

And why did Eichel take more than Crosby, Bergeron, Stamkos, and Malkin? Why did Evander Kane take more than Gaudreau, Marchand, Hall, Forsberg, and Panarin? Why did Ekblad take more than Letang, Doughty, Karlsson and Pietrangelo? I'm not criticizing you, it's just a question. First, 108 per 82 point scorer Backstrom takes 16.12 PPM (points per million), then 81 point equivalent Duchene takes 13.5 PPM, 70 point Scheifele takes 11.43 PPM, 61 point Johansen takes 7.63, and 78 point Eichel takes 7.77 PPM. Contracts just go up with the cap rise. Precisely? No. But McDavid would have made more if he was signing this offseason after Tavares took 11 million and we know that the Sharks offered him much more. Two years prior, Stamkos took 8.5. I don't either Marner or Matthew does the math and says according to the cap rise that they are worth X amount of dollars, but they'll be able to say that if Tavares was worth over 11 million last offseason as a 27 year old, then they are worth more than that. The same goes for Marner with Kane.

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 40

#23

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Quoting: LoganOllivier

You are right, I can't be certain. I do believe though that most of the high end salary discussion comes from the media and fans of other teams who want to see the Leafs fail more than their own team succeed. There are people on here who think Matthews will absolutely get 14 million and Marner 12 million. That is just insane. How can teams possibly handle that sort of inflation?

Perhaps the middle class of NHL players will disappear and you'll either be a star making star money, or you'll be a depth guy making 3 million a year tops.

The league is already heading in that direction, I think...where you have star players and ELC's/vet's signing for cheap to keep the dream alive.

Again though...the people who say they will "absolutely get 14 million and 12 million' are just as wrong as the people who claim they will 'absolutely sign for $11.5 and $8.5'....Someone's opinion is bound to turn out to be true...it still doesn't make their opinion today 'absolute'

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11 janv. 2019 à 12 h 46

#24