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Leafs 2019-20 what I think will happen

Créé par: Gauss
Équipe: 2019-20 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 28 déc. 2018
Publié: 28 déc. 2018
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
There are going to be no major trades done at the 2019 trade deadline or in the summer 2019. The team is going to be improved internally through the development of prospects. The leafs are going to follow the mindset of Detroit's management over the last 25+ years that saw them make the playoffs for 25 straight years and win 4 cups.

With that said Marleau is not going anywhere. He is a great mentor for the kids and can still play albeit on the third or fourth line next year.
Hainsey is going to be resigned to a 1 year deal and if he ends up as a scratch he is still valuable as a mentor to the kids on defense kids.

Matthews and Marner get signed for a combined 20 million per for 6 years at which time Tavares contract is up and is 11 million can be used to resign Matthews and Marner again. I used 11 and 9 but it could 11.25 and 8.75 etc. but the total will be 20 mil between them.

Rosen will get the promotion to the big team. I think his play with the Marlies has earned it. Ozhiganov continues to improve as he adjusts to the NHL and has earned another contract. Also I think that Sandin and Liljegren can use another year with the Marlies with large minutes to develop their craft.

As much as five million will be allocated to sign Kapanen and Johnsson to two or three year deals. I did 3 years deals at 3 and 2 million per year but again that can be more or less for each as long as the total is 5 million.

Trevor Moore has earned a new contract and a promotion to the big team.

Lindholm is a great utility guy and I think will be resigned but as a UFA it will be for more than a million.

Unfortunately that leaves no money for Gardiner - some team will pay big for him as a UFA and good for him. He deserves a good payday. I would really love for him to be able fit into the plans. Travis Dermott is fully capable of taking over for Gardiner.

The 23 spot will be filled by Marincin or Ennis if they can sign either of them for a million. I am afraid as a UFA someone will pay a bit more for Marincin. I am not sure that Ennis has earned more yet and is good as an extra veteran forward for the leafs and will be the one signed. Also the team has quality defense kids that can be called up to fill in without waiver issues.

The 2020-21 leafs will have Marleau's 6 million plus the increase in cap space to focus on defense improvements if the kids Sandin and Liljegren are still not ready to jump in. Also Dermott will need to be resigned and he will get a nice raise.

Added - Jan 2, 2019 for additional support for Matthews and Marner numbers

My opinion is that Matthews for 8 years at 11 million (13.25% of 83mil) per is fair (4 years RFA at 8.5mil (10.25% of 83mil) and 4 years UFA at 13.5mil (16.26% of 83mil) = 11mil average)
My opinion is that Marner for 8 years at 9 million (10.84% of 83mil) is more than fair (4 years RFA at 7.5 mil (9.03% of 83mil) and 4 years UFA at 10.5 mil (12.65% of 83mil) = 9mil average)

Historical Contracts
John Tavares – 5.5 mil as RFA starts 2012-13 (9.16% of 60mil), 11 mil as UFA starts 2018/19 (13.83% of 79.5mil)
Jonathan Toews – 6.3 mil as RFA starts 2010-11 (10.60% of 59.4mil), 10.5 mil as UFA starts 2015-16 (14.70 of 71.4mil)
Patrick Kane – 6.3 mil as RFA starts 2010-11 (10.60% of 59.4mil), 10.5 mil as UFA starts 2015-16 (14.70 of 71.4mil)
Tyler Sequin – 5.75 mil as RFA starts 2013-14 (8.94% of 64.3mil, 9.85 mil as UFA starts 2019-20 (11.86% of 83mil)
Steven Stamkos – 7.5 mil as RFA starts 2011-12 (11.66% of 64.3mil, 8.5 mil as UFA starts 2016-17 (11.64% of 73mil)
Nikita Kutcherov – 4.76 mil as RFA starts 2016-17 (6.52% of 73mil), 9.5mil as UFA starts 2019-20 (11.44% of 83mil)
David Pastrnak – 6.67 million per for 4 years RFA and and 2 years UFA starts 2017/18 contract(8.89% of 75mil)
Nathan Mackinnon – 6.3 million per for 4 years RFA and 3 years UFA starts 2016/17 (8.63% of 73mil)
Mark Scheifele – 6.125 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2016/17 (8.39% of 73mil)
William Nylander – 7.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 2 years UFA starts 2018/19 (9.43% of 79.5mil)
Jack Eichel – 10 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2018/19 (12.57% of 79.5mil)
Vladimir Tarasenko – 7.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2015/16 (10.50% of 71.4mil)
Connor McDavid – 12.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2018/19 (15.72% of 79.5mil)
Leon Draisaitl – 8.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2017/18 (11.33% of 75mil)
Signatures de joueurs autonomes
RFAANSCAP HIT
611 000 000 $
69 000 000 $
21 000 000 $
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33 000 000 $
2900 000 $
22 000 000 $
UFAANSCAP HIT
11 000 000 $
21 250 000 $
11 000 000 $
Rachats de contrats
Transactions impliquant une retenue de salaire
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2020
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2383 000 000 $77 325 699 $0 $0 $5 674 301 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
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UFA - 2
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11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C, AG
NMC
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9 000 000 $9 000 000 $
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UFA - 6
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2 000 000 $2 000 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 4
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11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C
UFA - 5
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3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
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UFA - 3
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700 000 $700 000 $
AG, C
UFA - 1
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
C
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6 962 366 $6 962 366 $
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UFA - 1
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675 000 $675 000 $
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UFA - 1
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
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UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 3
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
DD
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UFA - 5
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5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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863 333 $863 333 $
DG/DD
UFA - 1
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
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675 000 $675 000 $
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UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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5 300 000 $5 300 000 $
AD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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28 déc. 2018 à 8 h 57
#1
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I don't think players like Matthews and Marner would take 6 year deals. They'd probably say We'll either take 8 years at more money or 4 years which brings them right to UFA like Tavares did. I don't think Toronto has any leverage in the situation so they probably have zero chance at getting a 6 year deal on these players unless for some stupid reason the players decide they want that term. I don't see much of an advantage to it, so the best outcomes for the players is probably 8y or 4y.
28 déc. 2018 à 9 h 5
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Quoting: Breakaway
I don't think players like Matthews and Marner would take 6 year deals. They'd probably say We'll either take 8 years at more money or 4 years which brings them right to UFA like Tavares did. I don't think Toronto has any leverage in the situation so they probably have zero chance at getting a 6 year deal on these players unless for some stupid reason the players decide they want that term. I don't see much of an advantage to it, so the best outcomes for the players is probably 8y or 4y.


I agree with your point. I don't see the Leafs doing anything less than 6 years since that will just be a cap issue in 4 years to resign them. I also do not expect them to get any more than 20 million combined per year if signed for 8 years and if they sign for 8 years the leafs will try to keep Tavares contract room for them by not using it in years 7 and 8. The advantage to the players to do 6 years they will get a raise years 7 and 8 but they take the risk of getting hurt and not getting anything for years 7 an 8.
28 déc. 2018 à 9 h 23
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Quoting: Gauss
I agree with your point. I don't see the Leafs doing anything less than 6 years since that will just be a cap issue in 4 years to resign them. I also do not expect them to get any more than 20 million combined per year if signed for 8 years and if they sign for 8 years the leafs will try to keep Tavares contract room for them by not using it in years 7 and 8. The advantage to the players to do 6 years they will get a raise years 7 and 8 but they take the risk of getting hurt and not getting anything for years 7 an 8.


Right, but thats a gamble no player would take. I could see them taking 4 years because they'd make a lot more money, but if they can't take 4, it's pretty much going to be 8.

Matthews will get 11.5m-13m and Marner somewhere between 10M-11.5M. Matthews compares to McDavid and Marner to Patrick Kane. Adjust for inflation and cap going up and you're looking at probably having to do the higher end of those ranges. Kane and Toews didn't take any discount and Matthews and Marner are better players. If you think they'll take a discount because Toronto "needs them to" they should just turn around and say "well, I'm not taking a discount. If you're so worried about money why did you spend 11M on Tavares less than a year ago? Oh, you think you're giving him some of the money that should have been allotted to me? I'll hold out." If Marner and Matthews hold out Toronto would be one of the worst teams in the league so management would literally be bent over and forced to give in. The only way this doesn't happen is if Matthews and Marner decide to take team friendly deals to win, but that typically doesn't happen much so it's a long shot.
28 déc. 2018 à 9 h 49
#4
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Modifié 28 déc. 2018 à 9 h 59
Quoting: Breakaway
Right, but thats a gamble no player would take. I could see them taking 4 years because they'd make a lot more money, but if they can't take 4, it's pretty much going to be 8.

Matthews will get 11.5m-13m and Marner somewhere between 10M-11.5M. Matthews compares to McDavid and Marner to Patrick Kane. Adjust for inflation and cap going up and you're looking at probably having to do the higher end of those ranges. Kane and Toews didn't take any discount and Matthews and Marner are better players. If you think they'll take a discount because Toronto "needs them to" they should just turn around and say "well, I'm not taking a discount. If you're so worried about money why did you spend 11M on Tavares less than a year ago? Oh, you think you're giving him some of the money that should have been allotted to me? I'll hold out." If Marner and Matthews hold out Toronto would be one of the worst teams in the league so management would literally be bent over and forced to give in. The only way this doesn't happen is if Matthews and Marner decide to take team friendly deals to win, but that typically doesn't happen much so it's a long shot.


Kane and Toews signed UFA deals and if that is where Marner and Matthews were at this point I would agree with you but that is not the case, If they sign a 8 year deal then that's 4 years of RFA and 4 years of UFA the leafs are paying for. Matthews 4 years RFA at 8.5 million and 4 years UFA at 13.5 million = 11 million average. Marner 4 years RFA at 7.0 million and 4 years UFA at 11 million = 9 million average (Kane and Toews were 6.3 mil RFA and 10.5 Mil UFA - Tavares was 5.5 mil RFA and 11 mill UFA - Kucherov 4.76 mil RFA and 9.5 mil UFA)

McDavid in my opinion is just overpaid for a RFA/UFA contract coverage.
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28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 8
#5
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Quoting: Breakaway
Right, but thats a gamble no player would take. I could see them taking 4 years because they'd make a lot more money, but if they can't take 4, it's pretty much going to be 8.

Matthews will get 11.5m-13m and Marner somewhere between 10M-11.5M. Matthews compares to McDavid and Marner to Patrick Kane. Adjust for inflation and cap going up and you're looking at probably having to do the higher end of those ranges. Kane and Toews didn't take any discount and Matthews and Marner are better players. If you think they'll take a discount because Toronto "needs them to" they should just turn around and say "well, I'm not taking a discount. If you're so worried about money why did you spend 11M on Tavares less than a year ago? Oh, you think you're giving him some of the money that should have been allotted to me? I'll hold out." If Marner and Matthews hold out Toronto would be one of the worst teams in the league so management would literally be bent over and forced to give in. The only way this doesn't happen is if Matthews and Marner decide to take team friendly deals to win, but that typically doesn't happen much so it's a long shot.


I agree with you regarding Matthews and I agree with @Gauss that it will be a $20 MIL split. Where I disagree is Marner being worth so much. He is on pace for another typical 20 to 25 goals which he has done his whole career. His huge point total increase is his assists and playing with an elite super star line mate who has a current shooting percentage of 17.6 %. Put him back with Bozak and JVR then you would see Marner's point totals take a huge hit.

I am a Leaf fan so maybe I have a negative bias after seeing inflated contracts given to Phaneuf, Kessel, Clarkson, etc. I look at players like Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Sheifele, Monahan, Landeskog, MacKinnon at the $6 - $7 MIL window and would trade Marner for any of them 1 for 1. Hearing Marner being expected to make over $10 MIL sounds like Darren Dreger, Craig Button, etc or a horribly managed team like the Oilers not a successful GM like Yzerman, etc.
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 11
#6
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I agree with the 6 year contracts, I think it will be a trend in the league, players will bet on themselves and go for a mega 3rd contract.

Matthews 11 x 6 is 66 million - 13.25 % of the cap
Marner 9 x 6 is 54 million - 10.84 % of the cap

Assuming the cap continues to grow by about 3 million per year the cap will be 101 million when their deals are done. They will probably sign for more percentage of the cap too because it will be ufa years at that point and their stock will also probably go up, but even if they sign at the same percentages, their next contracts could be

Matthews 13.4 x 8 is 107 million
Marner 11 x 8 is 88 million

And thats just the low side of the spectrum, if they both go up 2% of the cap it could be 15.15 x 8 for Matthews and 13.13 x 8 for Marner. They'd finish these contracts at 35 and life would be grand. 6 years is the perfect in between for having financial certainty but also betting on yourself for an even bigger 3rd contract when you are 27 in your prime
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28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 15
#7
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Quoting: Gauss
Kane and Toews signed UFA deals and if that is where Marner and Matthews were at this point I would agree with you but that is not the case, If they sign a 8 year deal then that's 4 years of RFA and 4 years of UFA the leafs are paying for. Matthews 4 years RFA at 8.5 million and 4 years UFA at 13.5 million = 11 million average. Marner 4 years RFA at 7.0 million and 4 years UFA at 11 million = 9 million average (Kane and Toews were 6.3 mil RFA and 10.5 Mil UFA - Tavares was 5.5 mil RFA and 11 mill UFA - Kucherov 4.76 mil RFA and 9.5 mil UFA)

McDavid in my opinion is just overpaid for a RFA/UFA contract coverage.


This is EXACTLY how I think.

...and using Edmonton as a business model to set your salaries is ludicrous. It is like copying a bankrupted business and expecting success. Chiarelli has so badly mismanaged his payroll that even McDavid knew it and gave $8 MIL back before signing. Some NHL GMs are their own worst enemy in trying to build a competitive team. Let's not use them for the Leafs template.
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28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 25
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Quoting: Britishbulldog
I agree with you regarding Matthews and I agree with @Gauss that it will be a $20 MIL split. Where I disagree is Marner being worth so much. He is on pace for another typical 20 to 25 goals which he has done his whole career. His huge point total increase is his assists and playing with an elite super star line mate who has a current shooting percentage of 17.6 %. Put him back with Bozak and JVR then you would see Marner's point totals take a huge hit.

I am a Leaf fan so maybe I have a negative bias after seeing inflated contracts given to Phaneuf, Kessel, Clarkson, etc. I look at players like Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Sheifele, Monahan, Landeskog, MacKinnon at the $6 - $7 MIL window and would trade Marner for any of them 1 for 1. Hearing Marner being expected to make over $10 MIL sounds like Darren Dreger, Craig Button, etc or a horribly managed team like the Oilers not a successful GM like Yzerman, etc.


The thing is that Nylander got a better deal than what Toronto fan were claiming was fair by holding out. If Marner held out the team wouldn't have the 2nd best record in the league right now. Nylander is <<<< Marner so that'd give Marner a lot more leverage. So the fact that Nylander held out and Toronto really didn't miss him at all, yet he still gets paid more than 6M and also gets shorter term at only 6 years when most toronto fan were saying he deserves 6.5 @ 8 means it's setup for you to be disappointed again. I think this, like the Nylander Saga, is not going to end up anything close to whats being suggested by Toronto fan. These are better players who will have more leverage. The only thing keeping this from turning out worse than Nylanders situation would be if the 2 players took it upon themselves to take less on purpose to help the team.
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28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 27
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Forgot to rate the team you made....

I feel the salaries are spot on except for maybe Kapanen. I think Johnsson isn't re-signed and another Marlies who is making under $1 MIL (like Grundstrom) takes his spot. That savings could be given to Kapanen.
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 29
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Quoting: Breakaway
The thing is that Nylander got a better deal than what Toronto fan were claiming was fair by holding out. If Marner held out the team wouldn't have the 2nd best record in the league right now. Nylander is <<<< Marner so that'd give Marner a lot more leverage. So the fact that Nylander held out and Toronto really didn't miss him at all, yet he still gets paid more than 6M and also gets shorter term at only 6 years when most toronto fan were saying he deserves 6.5 @ 8 means it's setup for you to be disappointed again. I think this, like the Nylander Saga, is not going to end up anything close to whats being suggested by Toronto fan. These are better players who will have more leverage. The only thing keeping this from turning out worse than Nylanders situation would be if the 2 players took it upon themselves to take less on purpose to help the team.


That's a fair point.

I will be holding my breath until June 2019....
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 31
#11
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D core serious problem no budget in place for it!!! Leafs will have to make serious decision in order to have a balance roster.
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 33
#12
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Quoting: Breakaway
The thing is that Nylander got a better deal than what Toronto fan were claiming was fair by holding out. If Marner held out the team wouldn't have the 2nd best record in the league right now. Nylander is <<<< Marner so that'd give Marner a lot more leverage. So the fact that Nylander held out and Toronto really didn't miss him at all, yet he still gets paid more than 6M and also gets shorter term at only 6 years when most toronto fan were saying he deserves 6.5 @ 8 means it's setup for you to be disappointed again. I think this, like the Nylander Saga, is not going to end up anything close to whats being suggested by Toronto fan. These are better players who will have more leverage. The only thing keeping this from turning out worse than Nylanders situation would be if the 2 players took it upon themselves to take less on purpose to help the team.


If you break Nylander's 45 mil six year contract down between RFA and UFA years you can argue that it is something like 6.5 mil for 4 years RFA and 9.5 mil for 2 years UFA = 7.5 mil average.
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 33
#13
BuckRogers
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Forgot your stars!!!
28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 36
#14
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Quoting: BuckRogers
D core serious problem no budget in place for it!!! Leafs will have to make serious decision in order to have a balance roster.


Yes D core will suffer for a year. But in 2020-21 the leafs will have Marleau's money to address that if they can not fix it with the quality kids in the system.
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28 déc. 2018 à 10 h 36
#15
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Quoting: Britishbulldog
This is EXACTLY how I think.

...and using Edmonton as a business model to set your salaries is ludicrous. It is like copying a bankrupted business and expecting success. Chiarelli has so badly mismanaged his payroll that even McDavid knew it and gave $8 MIL back before signing. Some NHL GMs are their own worst enemy in trying to build a competitive team. Let's not use them for the Leafs template.


I agree Edmonton sucks at trades and signings because I got to see it first hand when Peter Chiarelli (present oilers GM) was with the Bruins, but Austen Matthews is .02 PPG behind McDavid and has the same number of goals (19 total) in 13 less games lol. I think 12M is a reasonable number if thats what he wants. I think it depends on what he's asking for because I think he'll get close to what he wants because the team doesn't really have much leverage on him at all. You can't withstand making the face of the franchise disgruntled, especially when he's one of the top 4 or 5 players in the league.
28 déc. 2018 à 11 h 1
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Quoting: Britishbulldog
Forgot to rate the team you made....

I feel the salaries are spot on except for maybe Kapanen. I think Johnsson isn't re-signed and another Marlies who is making under $1 MIL (like Grundstrom) takes his spot. That savings could be given to Kapanen.


As I said in my team description Kapanen and Johnsson will split 5 million of budget for 2 or 3 years deals until more cap space is available and yes if that is not made to happen then I agree Kapanen will be signed it will be Johnsson who will have his rights traded.
 
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