No trade, ever, is going to 'guarantee a cup'...GM's simply have to decide on if the trade makes the team better. Most need to determine if making the team better in the short run outweighs the cost of removing future potential. The trade above puts the Leafs in a better cap situation over the next two years since Kap and Zaitsev will carry higher hits than AP + a replacement winger.
Fellow leaf fans...now is when you need to look at this from both a micro and macro level....
Let's assume this deal gets done close to the deadline when Nylander is expected to be back up to speed and contributing on the first line (And assume AP comes back from his hand injury and looks like is usual self). That would then assume that Kapanen has been on the 3rd line and Brown is on the 4th.
As a GM, you'd have to decide which lineup you like better:
Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Tavares - Marner Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Ennis - Lindholm - Brown Ennis - Gauthier - Lindholm
vs
Rielly - Hainsey Rielly - Pietrangelo
Gardiner - Zaitzev Gardiner - Hainsey
Dermott - Ozhiganov Dermott - Ozhiganov
If you think the lineup on the right looks better heading into the playoffs, a GM still needs to decide:
- is Liljegren, a 1st and a 2nd worth the upgrade?
- If it still worth the upgrade if you can't afford/don't want to re-sign Pietrangelo in 2 years?
- What trickle down impact does adding a legit top line defender have on the defensive core as a whole when everyone else slots down?
- What trickle down impact does removing Kapanen have on how effective our forward group is?
- If a forward or d-man goes down to injury, which lineup is our depth better suited to respond to?
- What will Kapanen cost to re-sign?
- What will AP cost (and what term) to re-sign in 2 years?
- if you don't make the trade, is it easier to find another top-2 defenceman or another 3rd line winger?
- With Gardiner and Hainsey likely leaving to UFA after the first year, are you better off replacing from the Marlies (Rosen/Liljegren) and dealing with the growing pains (but benefitting from cap savings) or are you better off knowing your top 3 are set in Rielly-Pietrangelo-Dermott and finding cheaper replacements in UFA or overseas?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost less but still improve the lineup?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost more but fit in better long term?
We can all have different opinions on how we personally answer some of those questions and what conclusions we ulimately draw...and unless this trade actually goes down and can be assessed in real life, no one can claim their opinion is the correct one.
Me, personally, I think the above trade is a little too rich...but not by much...assuming Pietrangelo is 100% healthy when the alleged trade goes down. Would I pull the trigger? If
@A_K 's suggestion of Johnsson/Kap + Liljegren/Sandin + Conditional pick based on leafs playoff successs (let's just say a 1st)....ya...I probably pull the trigger on that....mostly because I think Hainsey's play will continue to deteriorate as the season/minutes go on + the fact it's easier to find a skilled winger rental if we need to replace any offense + there is some cap savings while improving the overall roster.