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Some Leafs Fan logic

Créé par: Broad93
Équipe: 2018-19 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 11 déc. 2018
Publié: 11 déc. 2018
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Transactions
STL
  1. Kapanen, Kasperi
  2. Liljegren, Timothy
  3. Zaitsev, Nikita
  4. Choix de 1e ronde en 2019 (TOR)
  5. Choix de 2e ronde en 2019 (TOR)
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2021
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2379 500 000 $77 772 778 $2 550 000 $5 400 000 $1 727 222 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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6 250 000 $6 250 000 $
AG, C
NMC
UFA - 2
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11 000 000 $11 000 000 $
C, AG
NMC
UFA - 7
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10 277 778 $10 277 778 $
AD
UFA - 6
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2 250 000 $2 250 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 3
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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5 300 000 $5 300 000 $
AD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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787 500 $787 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance2 850 000 $$3M)
C
UFA - 1
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2 100 000 $2 100 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AG, C
UFA - 1
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894 167 $894 167 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
AD
UFA - 1
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675 000 $675 000 $
C
UFA - 2
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650 000 $650 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
DG
UFA - 4
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
5 000 000 $5 000 000 $
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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4 050 000 $4 050 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
3 000 000 $3 000 000 $
DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
675 000 $675 000 $
G
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance850 000 $$850K)
DD
UFA - 1
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
675 000 $675 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
863 333 $863 333 $
DG/DD
UFA - 2
Logo de Maple Leafs de Toronto
800 000 $800 000 $
DG
UFA - 1
Logo de Blues de St-Louis
6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
DD
NTC
UFA - 2

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11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 34
#1
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
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So? Whats your point?
11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 36
#2
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SeminStains
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Quoting: SammyT_51
So? Whats your point?


You don't trade away the farm to acquire a defenceman with a large salary cap in a year where the offseason you're going into cap hell.
11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 49
#3
Banni
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Quoting: Broad93
You don't trade away the farm to acquire a defenceman with a large salary cap in a year where the offseason you're going into cap hell.


I agree with you in part. Although I'd more say, you don't sell the farm ever. Acquiring talent is never a bad idea but if the cost is 3 high value future pieces, the player you are obtaining better have at least 5-6 years worth of high end play ahead of him. A 28 year does not have that, by the time Liljegren is reaching his potential, Pietrangelo will be a declining asset. This is a short sighted and poorly thought out idea.
11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 49
#4
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
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Quoting: Broad93
You don't trade away the farm to acquire a defenceman with a large salary cap in a year where the offseason you're going into cap hell.


Actually.. this would help with cap crunch since Zaitsev, Kapanen and Liljegren would make circa 8.9mil. in 19/20 when we would likely be in cap hell
11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 49
#5
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Quoting: Broad93
You don't trade away the farm to acquire a defenceman with a large salary cap in a year where the offseason you're going into cap hell.


How much cap are they really taking on? Let's say Kapanen gets $3m next year. Zaits stays at 4.5m for an eternity. Petro at 6.5m for this year and next. And let's say that Pietrangelo makes the team better than having Kapanen for the next 2 years... It's not really adding cap, it's using quality assets to upgrade a position of weakness to a premier player. Not saying it's the approach that the Leafs have to take, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.
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11 déc. 2018 à 11 h 59
#6
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Quoting: Broad93
You don't trade away the farm to acquire a defenceman with a large salary cap in a year where the offseason you're going into cap hell.


Quoting: SammyT_51
So? Whats your point?


That seems to be the price according to some "insiders"
11 déc. 2018 à 12 h 6
#7
Banni
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Actually.. this would help with cap crunch since Zaitsev, Kapanen and Liljegren would make circa 8.9mil. in 19/20 when we would likely be in cap hell


Its way too much for a short term upgrade that doesn't in the slightest guarantee a cup.
11 déc. 2018 à 12 h 9
#8
Banni
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Quoting: A_K
How much cap are they really taking on? Let's say Kapanen gets $3m next year. Zaits stays at 4.5m for an eternity. Petro at 6.5m for this year and next. And let's say that Pietrangelo makes the team better than having Kapanen for the next 2 years... It's not really adding cap, it's using quality assets to upgrade a position of weakness to a premier player. Not saying it's the approach that the Leafs have to take, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.


St Louis fans are so adamant that the Leafs need to pay such a high price for Pietrangelo, (WAYYYYYY TOO much in my opinion, not saying it isn't fair its just short sighted). The biggest issue for me in this, is all St Louis fans seem to unanimously want to move Pietrangelo because he's a bad leader, I have heard that from several Blues Fans. Why would I want to pay a premium for someone you guys are all unhappy with and someone who is 28 turning 29 and will require a massive contract at the age of 30? A trade like this is old school thinking. Pay a huge price to become a stronger contender and the only thing you can guarantee for sure is that your future isn't half as bright since you lost 3 pieces that will be important contributers for cheap in the coming years.
11 déc. 2018 à 12 h 18
#9
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
St Louis fans are so adamant that the Leafs need to pay such a high price for Pietrangelo, (WAYYYYYY TOO much in my opinion, not saying it isn't fair its just short sighted). The biggest issue for me in this, is all St Louis fans seem to unanimously want to move Pietrangelo because he's a bad leader, I have heard that from several Blues Fans. Why would I want to pay a premium for someone you guys are all unhappy with and someone who is 28 turning 29 and will require a massive contract at the age of 30? A trade like this is old school thinking. Pay a huge price to become a stronger contender and the only thing you can guarantee for sure is that your future isn't half as bright since you lost 3 pieces that will be important contributers for cheap in the coming years.


He doesn't have to be a leader on the Leafs, I think that's the appeal. He's struggling to lead the Blues because he's just not a good captain. Hell of a hockey player though, so when there is speculation about trading him, it shouldn't be surprising that Blues fans would want a lot of value coming back. He's 28, he'll be 30 to start his next deal, but he's not a guy that relies on his speed/physicality. He rarely hits/gets hit. He's not going to hit some crazy decline at 30. I think of him like Ryan Suter. He's almost 34 and still a 50-pt, 2-way, 25+ min defenseman.

I'm not going to tell you what the Leafs should do. They obviously have a good plan in place for the future if they can manage the cap. But if the rumor is that they want Pietrangelo, the Blues aren't just going to toss him over for nothing when they could easily keep him around. We would need a couple young players and a pick. One of Johnsson/Kapanen, one of Sandin/Liljegren, and if we're taking Zaitsev, a conditional pick based on Leafs playoffs outcome. It's not a huge cost when you break down the incremental improvements, cap relief, probability of replacing a top 6 forward, probability of draft pick success, etc.
11 déc. 2018 à 12 h 22
#10
Banni
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Quoting: A_K
How much cap are they really taking on? Let's say Kapanen gets $3m next year. Zaits stays at 4.5m for an eternity. Petro at 6.5m for this year and next. And let's say that Pietrangelo makes the team better than having Kapanen for the next 2 years... It's not really adding cap, it's using quality assets to upgrade a position of weakness to a premier player. Not saying it's the approach that the Leafs have to take, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.


Toronto can't afford to make trades that don't lower their cap exposure. Breaking even is simply bad news for them.
AM is gonna break the bank. Marner is gonna ask for his too because why wouldn't he? You think he's gonna sit there and watch AM get paid and take nothing? Not that I think he deserves 10 million a year. Not on his play so far. All he does is rack up assist points. Who cares, find the back of the net and come talk to me. Especially as a winger. They are gonna have issues next year. Staying flat on the cap isn't a solution for them. The real issue is any good young player at a low cap hit is gonna cost 2 to 3 times as much in talent level as they are going to have to cough up. And they frankly don't have that. Given their pressing cap issues players will probably be traded for virtually nothing, or they will have to cough up to get rid of them. As sad as that seems. Because every team looking at them is gonna say the same thing. "well I don't know if we can take that cap hit......" knowing Toronto is up **** creek.
11 déc. 2018 à 12 h 50
#11
Banni
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Quoting: A_K
He doesn't have to be a leader on the Leafs, I think that's the appeal. He's struggling to lead the Blues because he's just not a good captain. Hell of a hockey player though, so when there is speculation about trading him, it shouldn't be surprising that Blues fans would want a lot of value coming back. He's 28, he'll be 30 to start his next deal, but he's not a guy that relies on his speed/physicality. He rarely hits/gets hit. He's not going to hit some crazy decline at 30. I think of him like Ryan Suter. He's almost 34 and still a 50-pt, 2-way, 25+ min defenseman.

I'm not going to tell you what the Leafs should do. They obviously have a good plan in place for the future if they can manage the cap. But if the rumor is that they want Pietrangelo, the Blues aren't just going to toss him over for nothing when they could easily keep him around. We would need a couple young players and a pick. One of Johnsson/Kapanen, one of Sandin/Liljegren, and if we're taking Zaitsev, a conditional pick based on Leafs playoffs outcome. It's not a huge cost when you break down the incremental improvements, cap relief, probability of replacing a top 6 forward, probability of draft pick success, etc.


Suter is and has always been a terrific skater and Pietrangelo is average. Suter doesn't look like he has lost a step yet but if you aren't fast to begin with, the evolution and increased speed of the game will leave you behind. You need speed and with how the Leafs play, its utterly paramount to have good skaters on the back end. They need their defence to get back fast, retrieve the puck and turn it back up ice. Pietrangelo isn't the right fit for TO. Also the reports suggesting TO is interested are speculative guesses based of comantators own opinions of what is needed, its not at all from the team. Dubas has a very clear vision of what he wants his team to play like and that is based on speed and skill. Pietrangelo has talent, but not enough speed. He'd come in and be the slowest guy on the team and I would be worried that he wouldn't be able to handle the style of play the team would require him to play at.

On top of those concerns, the age is a major concern. So many good veterans are having a tonne of trouble extending their careers into their 30's and I don't see Pietrangelo being an elite player at 32 let a lone 36. So if he is going to demand a huge 8 year deal next year, he's not worth it and he'll be out the door. I have no thirst for Pietrangelo. If I could get him cheap, well that changes everything but the price St Louis wants is way too high for what he's going to bring to the table. 2 Roster players, a highly touted 1st round drafted player and a 1st rounder is an insane price for 1 player who isn't going to be around for more than a season and a half. Pietrangelo is essentially a prolonged rental and rentals are not worth half this price.
11 déc. 2018 à 13 h 4
#12
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Modifié 11 déc. 2018 à 13 h 12
Quoting: LoganOllivier
Suter is and has always been a terrific skater and Pietrangelo is average. Suter doesn't look like he has lost a step yet but if you aren't fast to begin with, the evolution and increased speed of the game will leave you behind. You need speed and with how the Leafs play, its utterly paramount to have good skaters on the back end. They need their defence to get back fast, retrieve the puck and turn it back up ice. Pietrangelo isn't the right fit for TO. Also the reports suggesting TO is interested are speculative guesses based of comantators own opinions of what is needed, its not at all from the team. Dubas has a very clear vision of what he wants his team to play like and that is based on speed and skill. Pietrangelo has talent, but not enough speed. He'd come in and be the slowest guy on the team and I would be worried that he wouldn't be able to handle the style of play the team would require him to play at.

On top of those concerns, the age is a major concern. So many good veterans are having a tonne of trouble extending their careers into their 30's and I don't see Pietrangelo being an elite player at 32 let a lone 36. So if he is going to demand a huge 8 year deal next year, he's not worth it and he'll be out the door. I have no thirst for Pietrangelo. If I could get him cheap, well that changes everything but the price St Louis wants is way too high for what he's going to bring to the table. 2 Roster players, a highly touted 1st round drafted player and a 1st rounder is an insane price for 1 player who isn't going to be around for more than a season and a half. Pietrangelo is essentially a prolonged rental and rentals are not worth half this price.


Fair assessment (but I don't think Suter is fast haha). So if the Leafs add defense, they can elect to find a cheaper option that would be a better fit stylistically. But if they are ever serious about Pietrangelo, the cost is going to be high.

Trust me, I understand your logic about keeping the farm. Last year every Blues trade on here was "[player with 1-2 yrs left on contract] for Thomas/Kyrou/1st" and every other fan base told me that "the Blues window is closing and they have to go all-in". I don't believe any of that - that's not how you build a team. Thomas and a 1st for Pacioretty would've looked pretty dumb when we missed the playoffs. WRT Pietrangelo, I'm just trying to provide what I think is good enough value for the Blues to trade him. If that's not Toronto wants to do, that's fine.
11 déc. 2018 à 13 h 24
#13
Banni
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Quoting: A_K
Fair assessment (but I don't think Suter is fast haha). So if the Leafs add defense, they can elect to find a cheaper option that would be a better fit stylistically. But if they are ever serious about Pietrangelo, the cost is going to be high.


I think we are very much on the same page. I really do like Pietrangelo and would love to see him in TO but personally would never pay the price it would take to make that happen. Unless he decides to hit the market and takes a 1 year deal to try to win one in TO, I think the price is too much acquire him. #1 Stud defence are almost impossible to trade for, much in the same way that trading for McDavid is almost impossible. The number of pieces that it would take to get McDavid would gut any teams for years, sure you get the best player in the world, but hockey is a team game and 1 player just can't make as big an impact as one can in Basketball.
11 déc. 2018 à 13 h 31
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Quoting: A_K
He doesn't have to be a leader on the Leafs, I think that's the appeal. He's struggling to lead the Blues because he's just not a good captain. Hell of a hockey player though, so when there is speculation about trading him, it shouldn't be surprising that Blues fans would want a lot of value coming back. He's 28, he'll be 30 to start his next deal, but he's not a guy that relies on his speed/physicality. He rarely hits/gets hit. He's not going to hit some crazy decline at 30. I think of him like Ryan Suter. He's almost 34 and still a 50-pt, 2-way, 25+ min defenseman.

I'm not going to tell you what the Leafs should do. They obviously have a good plan in place for the future if they can manage the cap. But if the rumor is that they want Pietrangelo, the Blues aren't just going to toss him over for nothing when they could easily keep him around. We would need a couple young players and a pick. One of Johnsson/Kapanen, one of Sandin/Liljegren, and if we're taking Zaitsev, a conditional pick based on Leafs playoffs outcome. It's not a huge cost when you break down the incremental improvements, cap relief, probability of replacing a top 6 forward, probability of draft pick success, etc.


I think you're spot on again AK. And I agree, I think the leafs do have a good plan in place from what we've seen over the last few years. We're just not privvy to it, that's all. I don't think they've made any glaring mistakes in over the last few years, and they continue to trend in the right direction.

There might be something legitimate to the Petro rumours. Or maybe its just the media spinning a hornets nest - that's kinda thier job. But I agree with your comments on how to build a team. The leafs window isn't closing anytime soon. They'll need to manage their cap, and they might lose some good young palyers as a result, but it's not a bad thing to have too many good players. Like you said, if that becomes an issue because of cap reasons, then you trade some of the talent from your position of strength to address an area of weakness. The leafs might try to beef up their D this year for a cup run. Or they might think they'll have a better opportunity in a couple years. But I don't think you'll see them make a panic trade to sort it out.
11 déc. 2018 à 14 h 31
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Quoting: A_K
How much cap are they really taking on? Let's say Kapanen gets $3m next year. Zaits stays at 4.5m for an eternity. Petro at 6.5m for this year and next. And let's say that Pietrangelo makes the team better than having Kapanen for the next 2 years... It's not really adding cap, it's using quality assets to upgrade a position of weakness to a premier player. Not saying it's the approach that the Leafs have to take, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.


I'm not saying I like this trade...but the above comment is bang-on.
11 déc. 2018 à 14 h 45
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Modifié 11 déc. 2018 à 15 h 25
No trade, ever, is going to 'guarantee a cup'...GM's simply have to decide on if the trade makes the team better. Most need to determine if making the team better in the short run outweighs the cost of removing future potential. The trade above puts the Leafs in a better cap situation over the next two years since Kap and Zaitsev will carry higher hits than AP + a replacement winger.

Fellow leaf fans...now is when you need to look at this from both a micro and macro level....

Let's assume this deal gets done close to the deadline when Nylander is expected to be back up to speed and contributing on the first line (And assume AP comes back from his hand injury and looks like is usual self). That would then assume that Kapanen has been on the 3rd line and Brown is on the 4th.

As a GM, you'd have to decide which lineup you like better:

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Ennis - Lindholm - Brown

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitzev
Dermott - Ozhiganov

vs

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Ennis - Gauthier - Lindholm

Rielly - Pietrangelo
Gardiner - Hainsey
Dermott - Ozhiganov

If you think the 2nd lineup looks better heading into the playoffs, a GM still needs to decide:
- is Liljegren, a 1st and a 2nd worth the upgrade?
- Is it still worth the upgrade if you can't afford/don't want to re-sign Pietrangelo in 2 years?
- What trickle down impact does adding a legit top line defender have on the defensive core as a whole when everyone else slots down?
- What trickle down impact does removing Kapanen have on how effective our forward group is?
- If a forward or d-man goes down to injury, which lineup is our depth better suited to respond to?
- What will Kapanen cost to re-sign?
- What will AP cost (and what term) to re-sign in 2 years?
- if you don't make the trade, is it easier to find another top-2 defenceman or another 3rd line winger?
- With Gardiner and Hainsey likely leaving to UFA after the first year, are you better off replacing from the Marlies (Rosen/Liljegren) and dealing with the growing pains (but benefitting from cap savings) or are you better off knowing your top 3 are set in Rielly-Pietrangelo-Dermott and finding cheaper replacements in UFA or overseas?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost less but still improve the lineup?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost more but fit in better long term?

We can all have different opinions on how we personally answer some of those questions and what conclusions we ulimately draw...and unless this trade actually goes down and can be assessed in real life, no one can claim their opinion is the correct one.

Me, personally, I think the above trade is a little too rich...but not by much...assuming Pietrangelo is 100% healthy when the alleged trade goes down. Would I pull the trigger? If @A_K 's suggestion of Johnsson/Kap + Liljegren/Sandin + Conditional pick based on leafs playoff successs (let's just say a 1st)....ya...I probably pull the trigger on that....mostly because I think Hainsey's play will continue to deteriorate as the season/minutes go on + the fact it's easier to find a skilled winger rental if we need to replace any offense + there is some cap savings while improving the overall roster.
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11 déc. 2018 à 15 h 2
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Quoting: Juice
No trade, ever, is going to 'guarantee a cup'...GM's simply have to decide on if the trade makes the team better. Most need to determine if making the team better in the short run outweighs the cost of removing future potential. The trade above puts the Leafs in a better cap situation over the next two years since Kap and Zaitsev will carry higher hits than AP + a replacement winger.

Fellow leaf fans...now is when you need to look at this from both a micro and macro level....

Let's assume this deal gets done close to the deadline when Nylander is expected to be back up to speed and contributing on the first line (And assume AP comes back from his hand injury and looks like is usual self). That would then assume that Kapanen has been on the 3rd line and Brown is on the 4th.

As a GM, you'd have to decide which lineup you like better:

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Tavares - Marner Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen Marleau - Kadri - Brown
Ennis - Lindholm - Brown Ennis - Gauthier - Lindholm
vs
Rielly - Hainsey Rielly - Pietrangelo
Gardiner - Zaitzev Gardiner - Hainsey
Dermott - Ozhiganov Dermott - Ozhiganov

If you think the lineup on the right looks better heading into the playoffs, a GM still needs to decide:
- is Liljegren, a 1st and a 2nd worth the upgrade?
- If it still worth the upgrade if you can't afford/don't want to re-sign Pietrangelo in 2 years?
- What trickle down impact does adding a legit top line defender have on the defensive core as a whole when everyone else slots down?
- What trickle down impact does removing Kapanen have on how effective our forward group is?
- If a forward or d-man goes down to injury, which lineup is our depth better suited to respond to?
- What will Kapanen cost to re-sign?
- What will AP cost (and what term) to re-sign in 2 years?
- if you don't make the trade, is it easier to find another top-2 defenceman or another 3rd line winger?
- With Gardiner and Hainsey likely leaving to UFA after the first year, are you better off replacing from the Marlies (Rosen/Liljegren) and dealing with the growing pains (but benefitting from cap savings) or are you better off knowing your top 3 are set in Rielly-Pietrangelo-Dermott and finding cheaper replacements in UFA or overseas?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost less but still improve the lineup?
- Are there other D-men available that will cost more but fit in better long term?

We can all have different opinions on how we personally answer some of those questions and what conclusions we ulimately draw...and unless this trade actually goes down and can be assessed in real life, no one can claim their opinion is the correct one.

Me, personally, I think the above trade is a little too rich...but not by much...assuming Pietrangelo is 100% healthy when the alleged trade goes down. Would I pull the trigger? If @A_K 's suggestion of Johnsson/Kap + Liljegren/Sandin + Conditional pick based on leafs playoff successs (let's just say a 1st)....ya...I probably pull the trigger on that....mostly because I think Hainsey's play will continue to deteriorate as the season/minutes go on + the fact it's easier to find a skilled winger rental if we need to replace any offense + there is some cap savings while improving the overall roster.


Awesome post. Well done, Juice!
Juice a aimé ceci.
 
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