Am I crazy er than usual

IDK if you're craz"ier" or not lol, jk. You're 100% correct that it VERY much seems like pick #40 is the same as pick #20. It's why I (as a Hawks fan) have been complaining about all these #19 to #14 move up by PIT fans. It's just not that big of a talent gap. It's whomever your team likes, but a couple of picks later...could be just as good a player.

With that said...that's also probably why DET won't do the trade above.

Truthfully, Foligno has no value here for Detroit since Yzerman has said he won't trade picks for a guy that doesn't fit the 18-27 year old window. So essentially this is 3 2nds to move up 20ish spots. Probably a bit too rich considering the depth of the draft, but if this gets Yzerman the specific guy he wants, it's not all that far off.

What is the deal with Addison - isn't he a stud? Why would you trade him to get a better 2nd?

In this particular scenario, I am targeting RHD Maxim Strbak with the Montreal 2nd. He is more the type of dman I want/the Wild needs.
Addison is fine. He’s going to be a very good PP quarterback who will probably need some protected minutes for the next year or two. The Wild already have the smallest RHD corp in the history of the NHL so I want them to get bigger!

If you dismiss Foligno from the DET deal just to simplify, I think you're close on raw value. The closest comp I could find was in 2021 - CAR sends 27 to NSH for picks 40 and 51.

The DET picks here are 41, 42 and 43. MN is 21.

Kinda comes down to what the value delta is between 21 and 27, plus 43 vs 51.

27 to 21 would cost somewhere between late 2nd and mid 3rd, maybe? 51 to 43 is probably into 4th territory.

Based on that, I think MN owes DET a small bit of value still.....probably close to what Foligno returns at TDL, actually. Nice job here - this one is interesting from a value standpoint.