Obviously the new hotness on ACGM is Mitch Marner trades and I've seen a few of my fellow Islander fans throw them out there, with varying levels of vitriol thrown between two fan bases that clearly *love* each other.
Here's the honest truth: Mitch Marner is an excellent player, one I would argue is in the top 10 forwards in the league. Toronto is in no position to -need- to trade him, seeing as they have a team that is currently under the cap and, while underperforming, is still a prohibitive favorite to make the playoffs. As such, they're not going to be trading a star player without a suitable return - a roster player that fixes a need for them, a young roster player to potentially replace the star they are trading, and a few other picks and prospects to pry him out of Toronto. The Isles have the pieces to do that - Semyon Varlamov would be an upgrade for their goalie situation; Oliver Wahlstrom can hopefully grow into the 35-goal scorer he was projected to be while skating with Auston Matthews; and William Dufour has shot well above his draft stock to look like a player with solid middle-6 potential. The Isles also own all of their picks (minus their 2023 3rd potentially) so they have assets to send up north for Marner.
But, while he is truly a top forward in the game, he's also paid like a top forward - meaning there is a limit to his market unless Toronto is willing to take a cap hit back. Josh Bailey would be the most obvious player to send back - while he's an acceptable middle-6 guy, he's also in the decline years of his career (freshly 33!) and paid $5M this year and next. His cap hit has to be moved to make this work, so he gets reunited with old pal John Tavares. Toronto also sends Erik Kallgren back to give the Isles a warm body to replace Varlamov with.
And that's why it's unlikely to happen. While Marner on the top line with Barzal is certainly something to drool over, look at the rest of this team. You're now going to bank on Sorokin staying healthy and starting 55-60 games because there's really nothing behind him in the system. You're going to be throwing someone relatively unproven into a middle-6 winger spot - I picked Simon Holmstrom here, but you could make a case for Aatu Raty or Ruslan Iskhakov. All great prospects with a combined -zero- games of NHL experience between them. And do yourself a favor and look at the team's depth & long-term outlook - summer 2025 is going to be a lot of fun, with $65M tied up in 8F / 4D - no goalies, barely a bottom 6, and no bottom pair, with only $22M to re-sign Sorokin and fill in all those other holes - oh, and you've traded a pair of high picks that could've been players on their ELCs that could've filled those holes cheap instead of having to pay up for established free agents (or trading even more assets for young players, ie the Alex Romanov deal). Yikes!!
I get it, I'd love Marner on Barzal's wing. It's the stuff dreams are made of. But it guts the depth of a team that's already not super deep - and all we have to do is look at the team that's potentially shopping Marner to see where that would get us.
I appreciate the level of though and research you put into your explanation, more ACGM's need to follow your lead.
I will say though, if Toronto moves Marner to do a culture shakeup, they will loose the trade, and likely badly. At best they can expect an Eichel like return.
Leafs need D, I think you could add either Pelech or Pulock in there and not ruin your prospects pool as much.
80 year old Lou Lamoriello trading for Mitch Marner would be the ultimate "win now" move - I don't think he'd care as much about the prospect pool if he was doing a trade like this. The Isles' prospect pool is also pretty thin at D - if you swap out Pelech you're running a depth chart that's Alex Romanov - Robin Salo - Sebastian Aho; if you send out Pulock your depth chart turns into Dobson-Mayfield-Grant Hutton. I'd rather sacrifice extra capital in terms of picks/prospects than completely sabotage the D corps if I was making a Marner trade
I appreciate the level of though and research you put into your explanation, more ACGM's need to follow your lead.
I will say though, if Toronto moves Marner to do a culture shakeup, they will loose the trade, and likely badly. At best they can expect an Eichel like return.
It feels like every time a team moves a superstar for multiple assets, they lose the deal. It's like trading a dollar bill for a pocketful of change - sure, there might be a quarter or two in there, but the likelihood that it all adds up to a buck is low.
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