I've already made a team where MTL matches and to be honest it made thing's a real headache for MTL... and it only works if you make the following assumptions:
- KK progresses and has a good year (40 - 50 pts)
- KK's demands for a long term contract are reasonable... (I don't believe the claim that KK would sign a lesser deal than $6.1M unless he has a poor season, in which case MTL would be better taking the picks).
- The cap rises to $82.5M
To be honest KK was very replaceable last season, at least in MTL management's eyes. So replaceable that even Eric Staal was seen as an upgrade, Jake Evans was more trusted by the coaching staff, and Kotkaniemi was a scratch in the Stanley Cup finals (the team is only going with what they believe is the best lineup in that situation and they believed at the time KK was not deserving of a spot - no politics there). Despite this, MTL still seen long term potential in KK obviously otherwise they wouldn't have let Danault go... unless they were just planning to trade KK which is a theory I've heard (KK signing the offersheet negates the possibility that he gets traded somewhere he doesn't want to play).
Anyways, back to the point, KK is very easily replaceable, in the short term at least, therefore MTL should just take the wait and see approach.
- TAKE THE PICKS
Do not trade them away in a package for a C like Dvorak (Evans and Poehling can be C's in the mold of Dvorak), I would only trade the picks for a legit top 6 C, a C with talents that MTL doesn't already have in the system. Even then, I would not trade the picks before the season starts and you know how Carolina is performing, this pick could range anywhere from 1st overall to 32nd so wait and see... right now it is generally assumed that the pick will be late so waiting would not really hurt the value of the pick although it could potentially become very valuable.
- SHORT TERM PATCH
Kotkaniemi P/60 last year was 1.4, his career high came as a rookie when he had 1.9. There are numerous free agent options out there that would be an upgrade over Kotkaniemi with respect to P/60:
Galchenyuk's lowest P/60 of his career came last season when he put up 1.8 (2.0 with TOR), his highest was 2.7 as a rookie with MTL and again with MTL as a 22 year old. I don't know if Galchenyuk would ever be given another chance by MTL or if Galchenyuk would be interested, but he did play the best hockey of his career for them... I'd take a chance on him for sure, why not? It doesn't necessarily have to be Galchenyuk, he's just one player I'm aware of but I'd take a chance on any tweener who has the potential to suprise.
If Galchenyuk is the risky option, Tyler Bozak would be the safe choice. He put up a P/60 of 2.2 last season and that's including time spent shorthanded (KK doesn't kill penalties) so Bozak would arguably be an immediate upgrade over KK in the short term. For reference, Dvorak's P/60 was 1.8 last year and his career high is 2.0, so this is my point... why are there so many armchair GM teams with MTL paying a big price for Dvorak when there are options in free agency? Bozak would be an excellent one year patch and gives MTL time to assess the situation, which leads me to my next point.
- REPLACE KK FROM WITHIN
Jonathan Drouin recently said in an interview that he is willing and ready to play C and I believe him. I bet he is crazy hungry to return and show he belongs and KK leaving opens up an opportunity for Drouin. Drouin's worst P/60 of his career came last season and it was 1.9... identical to KK's career high and a definitive upgrade over him last season. His only season at C with MTL he had a 2.0, and I would not entirely blame Drouin for what happened that season (MTL was a terrible team that year). This time around MTL has way better wingers, some solid defensive defenseman, and Suzuki is the #1C not Drouin. If people are willing to give Kotkaniemi the chance to be top 6 C then I don't see how you could argue against giving Drouin the chance. Hoffman - Drouin - Anderson would make for a good offensive line.
Jake Evans is already expected to replace Danault, but Ryan Poehling is also a dark horse for MTL. With Kotkaniemi leaving, there's an opportunity for Poehling in camp to prove he deserves a spot in the NHL.
- ASSESS THE SITUATION, MAKE YOUR MOVE
Once you know exactly what you have in Evans, Poehling, Drouin and potentially Bozak and/or Galchenyuk you can make your move. There's the possibility that MTL are out of the playoffs and they are sellers at the deadline (Bozak, Chiarot, Kulak, Galchenyuk etc... all pending UFA's)... in which case I would argue they would have found themselves in the same spot with KK anyways (KK is not a difference maker yet), at least then they would have two firsts in a strong draft and a potential lottery pick.
There's also the chance that someone steps up and claims the 2C spot, or at the very least plays well enough to give MTL a chance to add at the deadline when more C options become available.
If all else fails there is always free agency, and MTL's young C's Suzuki, Poehling, and Evans should only to continue to get better each year.
To be clear I'm fine with either outcome, it all depends on if you see KK becoming an impact player or not. I always did, but there's a good chance he doesn't ever become that player and I don't know if I'd risk blowing up the salary cap situation to take it.
This is well thought out. I am guilty of wanting Mtl to get a shiny new toy like Eichel, Dvorak (meh) or something else, but your process is probably closer to what most GMs do. The only thing that makes me think Mtl should be more aggressive is the thought of building on last year with a big improvement on the roster. Mtl is not a top 10 Cup contender as it stands right now, but if they could add a shiny new toy (impact center) AND CATCH LIGHTNING IN A BOTTLE AGAIN (because that would be what is necessary for them to get through teh Eastern Conference, even with an Eichel on the team) it could be worth swinging big. Price is not getting younger
This is well thought out. I am guilty of wanting Mtl to get a shiny new toy like Eichel, Dvorak (meh) or something else, but your process is probably closer to what most GMs do. The only thing that makes me think Mtl should be more aggressive is the thought of building on last year with a big improvement on the roster. Mtl is not a top 10 Cup contender as it stands right now, but if they could add a shiny new toy (impact center) AND CATCH LIGHTNING IN A BOTTLE AGAIN (because that would be what is necessary for them to get through teh Eastern Conference, even with an Eichel on the team) it could be worth swinging big. Price is not getting younger
Thanks,
Agreed, and there is theory maybe MTL was already planning on trying to trade Kotkaniemi in a package for a top C who knows. I could see it, because I don't think bergevin was very confident with KK as the 2C, but he can't be happy with the offersheet. Buffalo would probably be more interested in Kotkaniemi than a 1st + 3rd, so maybe this offersheet blows that up, and it also puts MTL in weak negotiating position because they NEED to add a center now as opposed to just trying to upgrade at center.
That's why I think the best choice right now is the wait and see approach, they can always circle back to the trade market during the season if they need to. If there is a good trade partner right now I'd do it but I think everyone is generally OK with entering the season with their current rosters (except for Eichel... but he needs a surgery anyways).
FFS Drouin is NOT a center, we tried to force that once and it went extremely bad! Can we please use a little logic and realize that the only thing that makes sense is to match the OS. Even if you think KK wants out, he will need to raise his value with the QO waiting for him at the end of the season. With matching the OS we have 4 scenarios that could play out 1. KK explodes and becomes our 2C and signs and extension. 2. KK wants out and is forced to play well enough to prove that his 6.1 Mil QO is not an overpayment and we trade him later in the season or offseason. 3. KK just stays on the same track or slightly better and he signs his QO cause he does not have enough value to move at that cap hit. 4. We send KK his QO to keep his rights then he turns it down and we file for arbitration and get his cap hit reduced to 85% of his current salary (5.185 Mil) and he again must either prove his value to be traded later or the cycle continues until he is 27 and walks in FA. Montreal holds all of the cards right now on the KK front, by letting him walk we weaken the team and get next to nothing back for it.
i read the whole thing (which is something i dont do very often) and it makes sense. I like the idea of signing Bozak, but then the problem with that is what we do when Byron returns. someone needs to be traded, not sent down. we gotta get something from losing a player. I'd say trade paquette/perreault, but they just signed with MTL
FFS Drouin is NOT a center, we tried to force that once and it went extremely bad! Can we please use a little logic and realize that the only thing that makes sense is to match the OS. Even if you think KK wants out, he will need to raise his value with the QO waiting for him at the end of the season. With matching the OS we have 4 scenarios that could play out 1. KK explodes and becomes our 2C and signs and extension. 2. KK wants out and is forced to play well enough to prove that his 6.1 Mil QO is not an overpayment and we trade him later in the season or offseason. 3. KK just stays on the same track or slightly better and he signs his QO cause he does not have enough value to move at that cap hit. 4. We send KK his QO to keep his rights then he turns it down and we file for arbitration and get his cap hit reduced to 85% of his current salary (5.185 Mil) and he again must either prove his value to be traded later or the cycle continues until he is 27 and walks in FA. Montreal holds all of the cards right now on the KK front, by letting him walk we weaken the team and get next to nothing back for it.
I do not see Jesperi coming back at this point. When Aho was given the offer sheet a few years ago Carolina came out and almost immediately said "We will match". To date there has been nothing from Montreal management close to such a statement. I think that the decision to sit him at different points in the playoffs and the lack of a public vote of confidence (i.e. "We believe in Kotkaniemi..he is a part of our future... there is nothing a team could do to take him away from us") speaks volumes about how they view him. I think the Habs are shopping the picks or taking the wait and see position mentioned in this post.
It would be tough to say to Kotkaniemi: "Yes, we benched you in the playoffs and yes we took our sweet time matching the offer sheet (relatively speaking), but welcome back! You're our future building block, forget the other stuff".
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