This is likely what the Leafs roster will look like to start the season. Two first lines look really solid and should have the ability to once again carry the Leafs to the playoffs. 3rd line is put together to be the Leafs version of a shutdown line. I think someone like Semyonov will get a chance playing on this line as well. He is an excellent defensive center and has played such a role in the KHL. He has good experience and is excellent on draws. 60% last year on 817 draws and 59% two seasons ago on 953 draws in the KHL. Hopefully that 4th line can give the Leafs some good secondary scoring. Spezza has provided that for 2 seasons and Simmonds looked really good playing that role before he hurt his wrist. Bunting can work his way up the lineup, but I like the fit here with Spezza and Simmonds to start the season. Our defense is pretty much the same with the exception of Bogosian leaving. I think Liljegren will get his chances this year and hopefully he can take them. His play has matured so much since he came over and he now has an NHL body. He looks like a beast, I would love if he could play on that 3rd pair with Sandin. I really like our goaltending situation. Two really good goalies that should give us the chance to win every night. If both stay healthy, we won't need to ride anyone until the playoffs, meaning that we can have two good fresh goaltenders next postseason. They are not going to win the Vezina, but they should at least provide us league average goaltending.
On to the elephant in the room, a 21 man roster. I don't think it is ideal at all, but without any further trades, this is likely what the Leafs are faced with. Sandin, Robertson, Semyonov and Liljegren are all waiver exempt thus why I put the three latter on the taxi squad to show that the likely will be called up and down like a yoyo to get reps in with the big club. Guys like Brooks, Amadio, Anderson, Gabriel, Dahlström, Biega and Menell and Hutchinson who all are NHL calibre players will likely be put on waivers before opening night. Hopefully all of them can pass. All teams in the league are in the exact same situation with players that are bordering an NHL roster spot. I don't think you should be too worried about losing these players, but there always is a risk.
What I would do if I were Dubas? I think I definitely would look to move both Engvall and Dermott's salary for an upgrade on defense on that 3rd pair. This is something the Leafs can do in-season after a month or closer to the deadline. I just think they need one more solid defenseman to make this team look really good (On paper at least). Dermott and Engvall combine for a salary of $2.75M which means that the Leafs could target someone at $5.5M and below at 50% retained to secure the backend. As for Morgan Rielly, I think the ship for trading him has sailed. They should have done it before July 28th or tried to extend him right around when Heiskanen got his deal. He is now likely going to be our own rental this year. Hopefully we have enough success in the post season to convince him to stay on a team friendly deal. I am thinking somewhere around the $7M-$7.75M range. I don't think the Leafs can go higher than that. Time will tell with this one. There will be other free agents next summer that can replace Rielly. I think someone like Ekholm coming in on a cheaper AAV next summer could have a similar impact as Brodie had. That wouldn't be the worst replacement although he stylistically is different from Rielly. Parayko, Lindholm and Murphy are other top 4 defenseman I think the Leafs could look at next summer. Klingberg would be cool, but he will likely be in the Morgan Rielly price bracket. There also is the possibility of a trade for a replacement. It would be very interesting to see who they target.
Side Note
I just wanted to touch on the Leafs prospect situation. I see a lot of people saying that we don't have any prospects etc. That is just simply not true. I am not going to name drop every single prospect, but since Dubas took over as GM on May 11th 2018. He has had 4 drafts. in 2018 he drafted 9 players, in 2019 he drafted 6 players, in 2020 he drafted 12 players and this past draft he added 3 players. In total, that is 30 prospects added while an average team that has 7 selections per draft would have added 28 prospects. Our prospect pool isn't the best in the league, but it also isn't the worst. I don't think Sandin is classed as a prospect anymore due to his experience in the NHL already, but we have really good prospects like Robertson, Amirov, Niemälä, Hirvonen, Abruzzese, Knies, Miettinen and Abramov that Dubas has added, as well as Liljegren who was drafted in 2017 before he was appointed GM. This upcoming draft we only have 3 picks, but this could change very quickly. We might trade the 1st round pick for an NHL player this season, but we are likely to add more mid to high round picks. I think Dubas has got a lot of unfair criticism for having our prospect pool ''empty'' which is such a casual take from someone who only think prospects are players taken in the first or second round.
Anyway, what are your thoughts? I love having discussions with you guys.
For me, I think the top line will be Ritchie-Matthews-Marner to start the year. Ritchie can play, and in looking at his development as a power forward, follows the same trajectory as Todd Bertuzzi (not making a comparison, but an observation). Having never played with talent remotely close to what the Leafs have in the top six, I think he has a 50 point season..... a la Hyman.
2nd line, Kerfoot-JT-Nylander. As it sits, Kerfoot is the proven player to take the role. I don't think it finishes that way, but that is up to Bunting. He does need to play up the line up.
3rd line, Bunting-Kämpf-Kase (if ready)/flavour.of the week. Bunting starting here makes sense. He is hard on the puck. Kämpf is 100% a shut down centre. And, if Kase is ready to go - between He and Bunting can give this line a bit of offensive teeth.
4th Simmonds-Brooks-Spezza. The topic here is Brooks, who when called up does produce. I can see him.working his way to the third line, but having a young centre on the 4th line, where a Spezza can teach him or spell him in the circle can make a lot.of sense long term.
Blueline: like it the way it is. Dermott is quite solid, and the contract is pretty decent. Liligren will get his cups.of coffee, but, for the first time in a while, there is depth on the back end, whereby Sandin, Liligren and Dermott will have to perform for ice time. Buena as a #8 is equally solid.
Goaltending: flat out better.
Prospects: the best prospects have clearly graduated. The next wave is a at least a year away. Robertson looks like top 6 material. SAD jumped into the AHL and produced immediately.... so at the very least, there is a 3C (wondering if Roberston and SAD have the same chemistry in the AHL as they did in Peterborough). Overall some solid forward prospects that need to marinate.
Defensively, finally starting to see results. Still, there is gonna be a 2 year wait minimum. Beyond the Leafs top 7, there is a gap. But the depth is there. Kral, Niemana..... just time.
If Robertson makes it out of camp I think Engvall is traded, and there will be split time between Sandin/Liljegren/Dermott. I think Sandin and Liljegren have the most upside because of their skating and age, and Liljegren needs an opportunity, which makes Dermott the odd man out. However, if Rielly is indeed a rental, Dermott might be needed in the future and kept on the third with Liljgren. I think Kerfoot is the third line centre, with Bunting as a scratch over Robertson. He might even be in the top 6 with Kase moved to the 3rd line (Mikeyev-Kerfoot-Kase) and (Spezza-Kampf-Simmons) on the 4th. Time to trade Rielly now, or sign him before camp starts. If trading, maybe get a 1st and 2nd round prospect on a competitive team? Foglino fetched a 1st from Leafs at deadline, so Rielly should get alot more. Once Spezza leaves, Semyonov might be a good replacement next year. And all this without mentioning Brooks
For me, I think the top line will be Ritchie-Matthews-Marner to start the year. Ritchie can play, and in looking at his development as a power forward, follows the same trajectory as Todd Bertuzzi (not making a comparison, but an observation). Having never played with talent remotely close to what the Leafs have in the top six, I think he has a 50 point season..... a la Hyman.
2nd line, Kerfoot-JT-Nylander. As it sits, Kerfoot is the proven player to take the role. I don't think it finishes that way, but that is up to Bunting. He does need to play up the line up.
3rd line, Bunting-Kämpf-Kase (if ready)/flavour.of the week. Bunting starting here makes sense. He is hard on the puck. Kämpf is 100% a shut down centre. And, if Kase is ready to go - between He and Bunting can give this line a bit of offensive teeth.
4th Simmonds-Brooks-Spezza. The topic here is Brooks, who when called up does produce. I can see him.working his way to the third line, but having a young centre on the 4th line, where a Spezza can teach him or spell him in the circle can make a lot.of sense long term.
Blueline: like it the way it is. Dermott is quite solid, and the contract is pretty decent. Liligren will get his cups.of coffee, but, for the first time in a while, there is depth on the back end, whereby Sandin, Liligren and Dermott will have to perform for ice time. Buena as a #8 is equally solid.
Goaltending: flat out better.
Prospects: the best prospects have clearly graduated. The next wave is a at least a year away. Robertson looks like top 6 material. SAD jumped into the AHL and produced immediately.... so at the very least, there is a 3C (wondering if Roberston and SAD have the same chemistry in the AHL as they did in Peterborough). Overall some solid forward prospects that need to marinate.
Defensively, finally starting to see results. Still, there is gonna be a 2 year wait minimum. Beyond the Leafs top 7, there is a gap. But the depth is there. Kral, Niemana..... just time.
I think Kokkonen has more upside than Kral, and Gogolev can be a diamond in the rough as he was fantastic in limited games for the AHL last season. He might be ready for next season.
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