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rush5154

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Forum: Armchair-GM26 avr. 2019 à 11 h 40
Sujet: Leafs Cap Problem Illustrated
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>You are a sparkling example of someone who talks out of their ass. The first half of the comment was pretty accurate. The part where you start going off on which teams will move players... any sources for that? What exactly was wrong with Ozhiganov? He played well. I hope we bring him back next year.

No one is asking anyone to do the leafs any favours. But if you think teams are conspiring together to keep them over the cap you are very much out of contact with reality. Some players will need to be moved and teams will seize the opportunity to add players that might not normally have been moved at more than a fair price.</div></div>

I never said that teams would conspire, but if you have time just go and see how many people have posted arm-chair GM threads with Marleau and Zaitsev traded. Those are the people who are out of touch with reality, because they just assume other GMs will absorb the Leafs cap-related errors. Marleau has a NMC and unless the Leafs eat a portion of Zaitsev's deal it's not likely to be moved.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way - you should be concerned with the people who say Pesce, Slavin or Miller are going to be traded. Who are their sources? Cap-era trades that feature roster-for-roster changes are rare in the NHL - not impossible, but rare. Why would Carolina make one of their strengths weaker? Why would Vegas move Miller a year after re-signing him?

If Ozhiganov played so great, why was he rotated out of the line-up for Holl, Marincin and Rosen in the last 30 games? Yes, they traded for Muzzin but if Martin Marincin is ahead of you on the depth-chart when injuries happen to your team's d-core then that is a telling sign that you're not able to play consistently well in the NHL.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 avr. 2019 à 11 h 55
Sujet: Leafs Cap Problem Illustrated
Teams around the league are not going to do Toronto any favours and allow them to trade Marleau so they can both improve and get cap-relief. Even if Marleau is bought out, his AAV still counts against the cap because he was over 35 years old when they signed him. Zaitsev will be harder to move - possible but not likely - cause his contract length is stupidly long.

Gardiner will walk, because it's mutually beneficial. The Leafs get much needed cap space to help sign players (Marner, Kapanen, Johnnson, Back-Up goalie, and maybe Hainsey for a 1-year deal). Gardiner will walk because teams will overpay him in the open market, he's had enough of the Toronto media, and he can play out his years in a different market and start new. The Leafs will never win with Gardiner in their top 4 - he's Mike Green 2.0. Washington had great success with Mike Green in the regular season, as did Toronto with Gardiner, but he could not play playoff hockey. Gardiner is the same, he's half-forward half-defenceman and his style of play does not suit playoff intensity. He hates physicality, makes terrible defensive zone plays, and cannot rise to big-moment occasions unfortunately.

Brown will be the sacrificial lamb - he makes too much money to be a non-producing 3rd line player. Who the Leafs target on the open market will be interesting. Carolina is not trading Pesce or Slavin, Vegas won't trade Miller, so the Leafs will either have to overpay like crazy or get crafty with another league player (we saw that backfire this year with Ozhiganov).
Forum: Armchair-GM4 mars 2019 à 11 h 35
Sujet: 19 20
Everyone is banking on (no pun intended) Marner signing a contract that starts with a 9. He's not in the business of doing the Leafs any favours for their previous signings. No chance his camp takes a deal where he's 2-3 million dollars less than Matthews, especially when he's shown more durability and consistency than him. If Marner has another playoff season where he's the Leafs best player, like he was last year versus Boston, Marner's camp will ask the Leafs to have them match Matthews' deal plus or minus a year so they don't expire at the same time. And for those who say, "Matthews is a centre, they're worth more" just go and see how many of the past Hart trophy winners in the cap era are actually wingers and not centres. Talented players drive the play, regardless of their position, and I would pay a lot to hear the negotiations between the Leafs and Marner's camp this summer.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 janv. 2019 à 11 h 52
Sujet: Realistic 2019 outlook
Great post - lots of thought went into this, so good job.

The only thing I would critique is the difference between Marner's and Matthews' contracts for AAV. Do people really think Matthews is worth 3 more million dollars AAV than Marner? As impactful as Matthews is, he does have a history of slumping and can disappear at times (last year playoffs versus Boston). I don't think Marner and Matthews will sign identical contracts (i.e., Toews and Kane in CHI), but Marner literally makes everyone around him better and helps get them career years. He's been the best and most consistent Leaf all season, and I would be shocked if there's more than 2 million dollars separating him and Matthews. In other words, don't expect an Edmonton situation where McDavid gets 4 million more than Draisaitl...
Forum: Armchair-GM14 janv. 2019 à 9 h 38
Sujet: Worst case scenario for the cap everyone is offer sheeted and matched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I'd be shocked if Marner got 10 million, anything less and I won't be surprised. I think 9 million should be the ceiling for Marner. He's strictly a winger which should lower his value a bit.</div></div>

I think long-term for the franchise the Leafs should do all that they can to get Marner under 10 million AAV. According to Nick Kypreos (take that for what it's worth) this past Saturday night when the Leafs played the Bruins, apparently Marner's camp asked for 8 years at 9 million AAV before the season started. Dubas said that was way too rich at the time, and said the discussions would continue in the future. Marner's camp is holding pat and saying they will not negotiate in season. Marner is betting on himself, and right now he's winning that bet. We'll see how Dubas handles it.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 janv. 2019 à 15 h 51
Sujet: Worst case scenario for the cap everyone is offer sheeted and matched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>One funny thing that many on here gloss over constantly but they give a huge double standard when talking about all this stuff.

For the Leafs they have been saying this.

Nylander doesn't deserve more than 6 million because he's a 60 point guy and isn't as good as Pastrnak or Gudreau etc. Then in the same thread will say that Marner deserves 10+ million and set a new bar for salary for wingers.

People just say whatever they want and then throw a bunch of garbage up to support their claim whether it makes any sense or not.</div></div>

I'm on record, and I can dig up my post from the summer of 2018, when I say that Nylander should get Ehlers' deal plus cap inflation, which worked out to 6.5 million AAV. I think that it was a reasonable proposition, given what Nylander had done in his entry level contract: two, consistent 60 point seasons.

Marner is going to out-point Nylander's best year by 30 points (maybe more) pending he stays healthy. That is a substantial difference between Nylander's best year, and Marner will continue to prove that he is the more valuable player to the franchise. As I mentioned earlier, if the cap goes up (projected to reach 82-83 million) so do player salaries accordingly. So would you really be that surprised if Marner gets 9.5-10.5 million AAV after a 90-100 point season, knowing that Nylander effectively got 7 million for a 60 point season? I wouldn't be shocked and most realistic fans - Leafs or not - wouldn't be either.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 janv. 2019 à 11 h 46
Sujet: Worst case scenario for the cap everyone is offer sheeted and matched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>You have it all figured out don't you.

Here is the thing and that is happening.

Young high end talent, of which Nylander absolutely is that, aren't settling for below market value coming out of their ELC's. No one had a problem with JVR or Evander Kane getting 7 mill a season and Nylander is better than either of those players. But Nylander is only so he gets the "you haven't paid your dues" nonsense that many people have. I am so sick of people looking for every possible reason to make Nylander look like crap. Compare him to Pastrnak or Gudreau or whoever, you are missing the point and are just looking for a reason to crap on the Leafs.

The reality is Gudreau is underpaid, so is Pastrnak. So is McKinnon and many other star players. There is going to be a very big swing in how secondary and depth players get paid. Top end talent will get paid top end money and secondary and depth guys (guys who can't put up big numbers on their own) will get paid way less than they currently do. Why? Because teams won't be able to afford to through bad money at depth guys who are easier to find and replace with young talent.

Watch what happens in Colorado soon. McKinnon is by far the best player on his team, its not even close, and yet, Rantanen is going go get a 10 million dollar a year max deal thrown at him. Then in a few years when McKinnon's contract is up for renewal he'll get a massive deal that'll pay him for his prime years that he will soon be exiting and then Colorado is going to have a huge problem on their hands.

A players prime runs from 23is - about 30 before they start sliding. Its a young mans game in this era and that is becoming more and more real each year. So if your best hockey occurs in your mid 20's, why would young players leave money on the table leaving their ELC's? It just doesn't which is why McDavid, Eichel, Pastrnak, etc got term, they see that a shift is coming. Guys like Doughty, Tavares, Seguin etc getting huge 8 year deals in their late 20's will soon be a thing of the past because its not a good plan. These guys got huge deals for what they did in their best years and they'll never live up to the contracts. Look at Chicago and Anaheim as proof. Term and high cap hits for guys who are declining.</div></div>

I don't have it all figured out - if I did I wouldn't be commenting on an AGM post lol.

I think you're partly right. Young players "used" to have to settle in their RFA years because they held little leverage, but that mindset was kept alive by the NHLPA and older players telling them "wait till you become a UFA, then you'll cash in." The old model saw players in their early to mid thirties get monster deals, because high-end players played for more than 12 seasons and the style of play kept/encouraged older players to play longer. In the last 5 years, there's been a massive shift to get young, talented, and fast players which - by osmosis - pushed out the older and slower players, not even to mention the enforcers being pushed out with the knowledge we now have on CTE. So you're right, why wait until your 27 to get a big contract when - on average - you'll be out of the league when you're 30-31 years old.

The difference between Nylander and Gaudreau and Pastrnak is that Nylander produced two good replicate seasons before he signed his RFA contract. He did not show growth, but showed consistency. Granted, he should be paid for that but not to the same extent than that of Gaudreau and Pastrnak. Both of them had career years leading up to their RFA contracts and deserved what they signed for. These two guys are outperforming their contracts now, which looks great for their respective GMs. Nylander is not living up to his contract right now (he has 3 points in 15 games FFS) and most people agree he was overpaid to begin with (hence Dubas literally waiting to the last moment to sign him) so I think - at best - Nylander performs at the level of his contract which is fine. But to sell the idea that this contract will look amazing for the Leafs in the future is a pipe dream. And I don't think anyone is comparing Nylander to Kane or JVR - it's a false equivalency - since those two were UFA's and had the entire NHL market to exploit and teams overpaid to get them. That being said, from 2014-2015 to 2017-2018 there wasn't as much cap growth and HRR that the league expected their to be. As a result, GM's and players alike could not ask for massive deals because the cap wouldn't allow it and thus a market was set. Is Gaudreau underpaid now - yes. Was he underpaid two years ago when he signed - probably not, no because that was the market then. Same with MacKinnon - and now Sheiffle - and by all means if you can find articles at the time these players signed showing uproar that they were underpaid then please provide them and I'll dismiss this whole thing.

At the end of the day, markets evolve over time and more HRR is being brought in so players salaries will rise accordingly. It's a linear relationship seeing as the owners and the NHLPA split revenues 50/50. Rantanen will deserve what he gets, he's performing at a ridiculous pace and the market will allow him to be compensated accordingly. MacKinnon will lap him in a few years - like you said - because he's the better player and will deserve a big UFA contract. But you can't not pay your best players in the league, what message does that send? You can be sensible, and avoid the brutal signings that happened with Backes, Lucic, Eriksson, Laad, deals etc., and I hated those contracts then and everyone hates them more now, but the agents and NHLPA will not allow it's superstars to be undercut by fears of the GMs and Owners not wanting to pay them in their UFA years. It's a business at the end of the day. Toews and Kane brought the Blackhawks millions of dollars in revenue between 2009-2015 - not to mention 3 cups - and they were paid for what they did. Should they have settled for less? Why would they? They achieved the ultimate goal, and Toews has won literally everything you can win in hockey except a Memorial Cup because he played in the NCAA. Players should get paid when they can, period. The GM's have to find the balance to kept the team competitive, that's their job, but players have one career and they should get as much money as they can.
Forum: Armchair-GM11 janv. 2019 à 10 h 16
Sujet: Worst case scenario for the cap everyone is offer sheeted and matched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I don't think they really overpaid Nylander. I think he'll be a point a game player once he's up to full speed, he hasn't hit his prime yet, probably won't until next season or the year after.</div></div>

If what you're saying is true, then Nylander's agent might be the best of all time. How do you convince a GM to pay that amount of money on a 60 point player - who disappears in the playoffs - only for him to be potentially worth it for 4 of the 6 years?

I know the cap has inflated, so dollar for dollar comparisons aren't really that helpful, but percentage of cap when signed is usually the best equalizer when comparing players. The fact is, Nylander's deal in 2018-2019 represented the same percentage of the Leafs' cap (0.9%) that Pastrnak's did in the 2017-2018 season for Boston (0.9%) and that Gaudreau's did (0.9%) in 2016-2017 for Calgary. No one could/should ever argue that Nylander is on par with either Gaudreau or Patsrnak - he's a level below them and I don't want to hear the "we'll he could be as good as them" argument. No - he won't because he's not that type of player. He can be invisible at times and has the benefit of playing with a generational player (Matthews). When he doesn't play with Matthews, he barely produces. Gaudreau and Pastrnak play with elite players, but I think we can all agree that Matthews is going to have a more impactful career (except maybe Bergeron, but Bergeron is a 2-way forward so comparing them is pointless) than those guys and Nylander gets to benefit from it. Marner - on the other hand - is capable of taking good players and getting them career years (JVR, Bozak, even the fourth line got points from him last year) and is worth every dollar he gets. Nylander is still young, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt to prove me wrong, but for those who think this guy will be a perennial 80 point player you're dreaming.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2019 à 16 h 53
Sujet: Worst case scenario for the cap everyone is offer sheeted and matched
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Because Dubas just decides not to do his job ever again?</div></div>

I know what you're saying, but I did not expect the Leaf's front office to capitulate to Nylander's camp - especially when they held all of the leverage - and they did just that. They over paid Nylander, and set the precedent for Marner's and Matthew's camps that they can hold out to the 11th hour should they wish. Dubas is on record saying he's going to learn from the Nylander process and get Matthews' and Marner's contracts signed way earlier than Nylander's, but at what cost? Will he be less stern? More stern? The AAV difference between Matthews' contract and Marner's contract has shrunk substantially since day 1 of the season, so it'll be a juicy summer/fall for sure.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2019 à 11 h 59
Sujet: The only TDL trade we should make
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>Agreed. I hated the Plekanec deal last year. Boyle I didn't mind as much and he filled more holes. And I agree with the LAK trade assessment too.

I think where Dubas is in the biggest bind is Marner. I love the kid but he's likely handcuffing the Leafs right now. He's pretty much refusing to sign an extension in-season and everything I know about him and his camp tells me that they want Matthews to sign first so they can piggyback off his number the way Draisatl did with McDavid. On the other hand...I think Matthews' camp is sitting there waiting for the leafs to offer a deal as they care much less about what number Marner comes in at.

This is significant because I don't think Dubas wants to sacrifice any major futures for a deadline rental. If M&amp;M numbers come in on the high end...those futures will be more valuable as you need bodies that can contribute on ELC's. I think Dubas would love to get in on talks for Pietrangelo...and probably has already done so...but without knowing the cap hit for M&amp;M, can't take on the risk of adding another contract for next season. That's why I think it's safer to stay away from bigger trade deals this TDL...take your lumps next year with what will probably be a lower skilled d-group, and re-group the following year. Marner getting signed to a reasonable contract before this year's TDL would change everything, IMO</div></div>

You're right - I think the Leafs thought Marner would be good, but not this good so early in his career. Marner's camp may also wait and see what Rantanen and Laine sign for, as they're both right wingers. Last summer my mindset was, Nylander will sign for 6-6.5 million AAV, Marner 7-7.5 AAV, and Matthews 11 AAV. Well lol - I highly doubt that is going to happen. Nylander signed for 7 (essentially), Matthews will get 11.5-12 AAV and Marner will probably look for 10 million. So, as you said, that extra 2-3 million that Marner is asking for - and may likely get - handcuffs the Leafs ability to be aggressive on the trade and free agent markets. They'll have to subtract some pieces - yes Marleau gone after next season helps - but then Reilly will be up, so will Kadri and Freddie Andersen, and then the problem restarts. Not an envious position to be in if you're Dubas.
Forum: Armchair-GM10 janv. 2019 à 10 h 22
Sujet: The only TDL trade we should make
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>Every year in hockey, there’s at least 5-6 teams who are considered cup contenders. A lot of times any of the 16 teams that qualify have a punchers chance.

Would it be overly surprising to anyone if Nashville, San Jose, Winnipeg, Tampa, Vegas, Washington, Pittsburgh or Toronto won?

All have great teams, all have some warts.

In a hypothetical universe, let’s say San Jose puts Karlsson on the block and the Leafs can pick him up for a first, Sandin and Kapanen (troll disclaimer: no, I don’t think EK is available nor would that offer be near enough.). Would the leafs adding EK to their blue line guarantee anything?

Would it make them head and shoulders above Tampa who they’d have to get past in the 2nd round at the earliest?

No. There’s never any guarantees. I’m hard pressed to think of any MAJOR deadline acquisition that catapulted a team from ‘one of the contenders’ to Cup champs.

Maybe Bourque to Colorado? Avalanche were already a cup favourite but that’s the only example that comes to mind.

IMO, deadline is best for adding complimentary and depth pieces to an already good team, or for restructuring teams to offload vets for futures. Not for contending teams to sell the farm to add a stud in hopes the few weeks you have him for get you a ring.</div></div>

All great points you've raised here.

You're right, there's no guarantee and the current playoff format will - again - eliminate a top 6 team in the second round.

In terms of previous adds that may have put a contending team over the top, Carter and Gaborik to LA gave them some finishing abilities and speed, respectively, in addition to their heavy play style. Other than that - I think you're right modernly speaking. Martin St.Louis to NYR didn't guarantee a win, neither did adding Eric Staal a few years later. Rick Nash to Boston didn't guarantee a win. Iginla to Pittsburgh didn't guarantee a win.

My only critique would be that the Leafs have done this small, depth adds for two years in a row now. First with Boyle, then with Pleckanec. Neither of these moves addressed the defense and neither of these moves allowed them to get out of the first round. Maybe if Carolina falls out of the playoff race (they've won 5 in a row however) the Leafs can meet somewhere in the middle. Acquire a 3-4 defenceman on cap certainty for picks, prospects and maybe one roster player. But, even that may be unattainable if the Leafs have to sacrifice winger depth like Johnsson or Kapanen.
Forum: Armchair-GM9 janv. 2019 à 16 h 23
Sujet: The only TDL trade we should make
The Leafs are in a bit of a predicament. On the one hand, the fan base and analysts have been calling for a upgrade to be made on the defensive core for two years now. It hasn't been addressed - to date - and we all know what happened against Boston last year in the playoffs.

On the other hand, Tampa made a huge swing last year acquiring JT Miller and Ryan McDonaugh, and it got them within one game of the Cup finals but not all the way there. Granted - they are an absolutely wagon this year and are more experienced for another run with those pieces added.

So what does Toronto do? They need to get out of the first round of the playoffs to start, and I think that will happen. However, without a significant add or two by the TDL I don't see Toronto beating Tampa unless a key injury occurs to Tampa (Vasilevsky or Hedman or Kucherov, etc.). Should Toronto be patient like Tampa has been and keep adding and have continued regular season and some playoff season success (but no cups since 2003-2004) or do they show the fan base they can make a run with the cap space they have? It'll be interesting to see what transpires...
Forum: Armchair-GM2 janv. 2019 à 14 h 36
Sujet: 2019-20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Very good points and I do agree. I think it would be wise to wait till the off season and maybe even after preseason to address the defence. Think we will have a better idea then what we will be looking for.

As far as getting by Tampa it’s a tall order for sure. With the very small sample size of one game against them so far I think we out performed them but vasilevskiy stole that game. When playoffs come I have no doubt that the games will be much tighter. I just think any sort of big move now will hurt us in the future.</div></div>

They'll play each other three more times, but even then I'm not sure if season record is a strong predictor when it comes to playoff round success. I think most people intuitively know that on paper Tampa's defence is much better than Toronto's. Again, on paper, the offence's offset each other and so do the goalies. So if there is a theoretical advantage then obviously it favours Tampa Bay. I don't think Toronto would get swept by Tampa in a 7 game series, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended for Tampa in 5 or 6 games either. Going to 7 games against Boston is not a comparable IMO, as they're - for the most part - a one line team with a young d-core (except Chara). I think if Toronto is going to do anything, it'll be to get a good #3 or #4 defenceman from a team not in the playoff hunt, who is on a team-friendly contract (i.e., &lt;4.5 million) that can push Hainsey down the line-up and reduce his minutes.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 janv. 2019 à 11 h 58
Sujet: 2019-20
The way things are trending, what you proposed for your RFA signings of Marner, Matthews, Kapanen and Johnsson seem to be in the ball park of what they'll end up signing for. However, each signed contract has massive downstream implications. Regardless of what people say, the Leafs caved and gave Nylander more than he deserved (he's a 6.5 million dollar player max, which includes cap inflation when compared to Ehlers, Patrnak, etc.). But if the Leafs "cave" again and give Matthews more than 11.5 million and Marner more than 9 million then I don't know how this team addresses their number one concern = defence. Gardiner is gone as of July 1st, but all that newly gained cap space will go into Matthews' and Marner's contracts. The only way to augment the defence is to trade for one because they can't afford to sign a big name UFA. So is the casualty someone like Connor Brown and picks and prospects - we'll have to see. The current Leafs defence can't go far in the playoffs (they can't defend Tampa's offense and they'll inevitably meet in Round 2 - this year or next year), and if it's the same recipe for 2019-2020 I can't see them going far in the playoffs then either.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 déc. 2018 à 10 h 22
Sujet: If We Had Nick THE LEGEND Kypreos As GM
Great post!

I'm not going to pretend that I have the ratings in front of me, but my feeling is that Sportsnet is desperate for hockey numbers compared to TSN. For NHL Trade deadline, I'm 99% sure significantly more people watch TSN's coverage compared to Sportnet's - same with July 1st too. Other than Saturday nights, when CBC has the coverage rights, TSN 's viewership must be higher than Sportsnet despite them only having regional game rights. I just find TSN has more credibility and better presentation compared to Sportsnet, but I could be biased. Yes, TSN does do some gimmicky things at times, but for the most part their content is sound and not as inflammatory. I don't mind Marek and I like Elliott Friedmann a lot, but Kyper is there to *try* and boost ratings by throwing out garbage takes.