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lesage_b4343

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Canadiens de Montréal
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Forum: Armchair-GM12 févr. 2017 à 16 h 56
Sujet: Martin hanzal
F50marco
You're right that a players production is subject to change in different environments, Phoenix isn't the most offensive team and hasn't been for a long time. I don't think you can bolster a players value with the "but with your players he'd be amazing" argument. I'm not saying I don't want to see Hanzal in a Habs uniform but you can't trade based on what his "perceived ceiling" might be, for all we know he won't have chemistry in Montreal or won't be able to handle the markets pressure (or whatever else). He is for sure a 40 point guy who for the merits you mentioned is valuable to Montreal - the value Montreal gets from his production isn't fairly Phoenix's to use, Montreal has that with or without Hanzal and more so stands to lose it if they jump in bed on a bad deal (Chucky/Radulov to resign if they get caught with Hanzal having paid so much that they need to resign him then they have cap problems as he asks 4.5-5+). If Hanzal is more gifted than he has shown due to lowly producing linemates then that "loss" is Phoenix's to bear not whoever trades for him (if he ends up being another Anisimov in Chi so be it).
The thing that isn't being mentioned here to lower his value is the fact that Phoenix stands to lose him for nothing if they don't move him, so a deal like: DD and McCarron with conditional 2nd (if he resigns) might be a closer to fair deal with all this considered.
Forum: Armchair-GM18 janv. 2017 à 23 h 45
Sujet: Vanek 2.0
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaptainFlynnt</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lesage_b4343</b></div><div><i>

So they were already getting a 2017 2nd and you're saying that they'd prefer a 3rd/2nd over two roster prospects who together aren't signed for more than 1.5 mil ( on top of the prospect that if Vanek signed they get that 2nd also)? I feel like we're talking about way too small a margin here if one even actually exists.</i></div></div> If Vanek doesn't resign, which is most likely, they don't get any picks so it's a bad trade for detroit... did you change the trade? Could've sworn it was only a conditional pick originally</i></div></div>

Nah I changed nothing, partially why I was so confused with the margin of disagreement - One second rounder being so much more than two roster players. I get what you're saying but Detroit just signed him this off season and if they have a reason to say they don't want to resign him then they need to trade him. The way I see it they'd rather have a mixed return of pick and players.
Forum: Armchair-GM8 janv. 2017 à 0 h 41
Sujet: Next year
Palhal: Fair enough on Enstrom I didn't realize NMC kept them from being moved down also, I'd still consider a trade with salary retained (same situation on that as with Bishop) but you're right it really doesn't change much if they retain him (as the thread shows there's plenty of cap to spare). I just honestly hate his play and feel if they would/could commit to giving a guy like Beau the spot and time they'd be better for it in the long run, otherwise Enstrom is used as a crutch that takes reps from the others.
As far as Bishop being traded, I should clarify that it has not been lost on me that Bishop wouldn't chose to be traded if that was given as a reasonable offer. IF TB decides that they'd rather keep him and move Vasilevski then it's moot and tbf we've not seen a trade yet because it's not an easy situation. Plenty of talk happened with Dallas but as a Cap strapped team nothing came to fruition.
In a Fantasy sense and more so within the realm of possibility: Bishop could see Winnipeg as a team that has a bright future and has the cap flexibility to offer him what he deserves in term and $$$. Maybe he says he'd rather take one last run with TB and then LV is going to be home for his career, no one knows.
I was never meaning that YOU were specifically responsible for the Trouba rhetoric but in these threads waves of rhetoric form in the same way as that non-sense did. There's far more weight to be given to the Bishop situation because he is a UFA on NMC but the fact remains that we have to recognize "speculation" for what it is.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 janv. 2017 à 16 h 55
Sujet: Next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lesage_b4343</b></div><div><i>
Also the whole him being a UFA - I just assume people understand when a trade for a UFA is made by a team that's not driving at Playoffs that there is dialogue and understood UFA negotiation that they're interested in re-signing.</i></div></div>

Gee, I think if Winnipeg traded for Bishop, Bishop would understand that Winnipeg would be interested in signing him. Yes, I had that figured out, and you did too. And Bishop has a NMC, would he would to uproot from Tampa to go to Winnipeg in January, February, March of 2017. Most sane people wouldn't.</i></div></div>

So Bishop won't come to Winnipeg because it's too cold for him... so a city like Winnipeg can't hope to garner the interest of any UFA and will be doomed to get what they draft and can keep until those players reach UFA status. I doubt Bishop wants to uproot period but Tampa is in a spot where they would need to do something to not lose Vasilevsky or Bishop so him traded for a good value back makes sense, if Bishop says not Winterpeg then so be it but I have to say there's not really anything supporting that at all. IT's the same nonsense rhetoric that was floating saying Trouba wouldn't go anywhere except for Detroit, It may be true but for the sake of Fantasy I'd say until it's actually got any degree of proof It's not worth factoring in.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 janv. 2017 à 15 h 39
Sujet: Next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i>What's this foolishness about giving up Trouba for soon to be UFA in Bishop? You could argue that Hellbuyck is just a good goalie as Bishop at this time in their careers. A lot better value out there than Bishop at 7m.</i></div></div>

I see Trouba as a liability to hold onto past his bridge deal and since it's such an ideal cap to most teams while he's performing well I place impetus on trading him sooner than later. Bishop I believe is top 15 in goalies in NHL, whereas from what Hellebuyck has shown,I have no confidence that he will be. This isn't a firesale, we're getting a prime aged Goalie whose put up numbers to support superiority.
If you're of the opinion that Trouba is worth significantly more than Bishop then suggest an alternative trade that is closer to the fair value with Bishop.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 janv. 2017 à 15 h 31
Sujet: Next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs1212</b></div><div><i>Bishop deal makes no sense. Why bring in a guy at 7 mil per over 5 years when you have Connor Hellebuyck in the wings? You're better off keeping Trouba and having Hellebuyck as your #1</i></div></div>

If from Hellebuycks play you believe he can be a #1 in the next few years then MAYBE but I'm of the opinion that he won't be a #1 (at least of the caliber that we need/want) and Trouba is ideal to move while he's performing and on a great contract (He doesn't want to be here). We get a goalie who's prime aged and has demonstrated a league top 10-15 pedigree. Also, Jets have Comrie "in the wing" coming up in a few years (3 maybe) and at that point they'll be able to determine through competition who's the best fit. This makes the Jets WAY better now while moving a player playing at there ceiling, getting Spooner back for Hellebuyck adds offensive depth to our center core when/if Little has bad luck in the future staying healthy.
I think it makes alot of sense, Byfulgien and Wheeler aren't getting younger and the former especially can't be relied on as a factor in the 2-3 years it'll take for Helle to develope.
Forum: Armchair-GM31 déc. 2016 à 14 h 23
Sujet: thoughts?...
You're going to have to do better for value in the Beau - Morrissey trade: I doubt they'd want to trade Morrissey away at all (he's looking good and the team is a year or two from being ready to stab at a cup) Also realize that in this trade you have two 1st rounders (Morrissey and Logan, 13th and 18th overall respectively) for Beaulieu and a couple picks. Admittedly a 1st and 2nd add value but this trade doesn't add for the Jets (they don't need more picks and Beau for Morrissey just keeps the same problem of being weak on the left side) &amp; it really isn't fair. I love Beau and think he's great but in reality you're not going to say he's much better if at all than Morrissey, they'd probable do a move for Beau - Lowry with picks coming to Montreal but it all depends on expansion.
I like Iggy for the reason you mentioned, really not sure how the value lands on that: retained cap shouldn't be a huge deal considering Colorado isn't strapped for it past this year. Basically if Iggy wanted to go I think the picks are close to fair.
DD i'd say just send down to AHL because no team will take that cap dump anyways - best case he is waived and can be used in playoffs if injuries occur.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 déc. 2016 à 13 h 45
Sujet: Gallagher fowler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaptainFlynnt</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lesage_b4343</b></div><div><i>
I agree he should get another go with Weber - I really do like Beau (I really would love to see him getting the chance with someone, that's why the Jets made sense to me). What he does is move the puck well (through N-zone) and has heart (willingness to fight, unlike emelin hip checking with 1 minute to go and then hiding because his face can't handle a punch).</i></div></div>
Hey I love emelin too, especially this year, and those hits he does (no matter what the score) are the exact things I love him for lol. I understand why he can't fight and that doesn't bother me one bit that he throws massive hits and he can't defend himself after.

I see emelin being a great mentor for sergachev in the future. A guy who can cover up for sergachev when he want to take some risks. Similar to how Subban had gorges and gill.</i></div></div>

Fair enough, when I watch him play I see him throw those hits once every 5-7 games and it looks to me like his "strength" isn't where we need it. Hitting is fine but he doesn't rub people off the puck behind net (when standing still) very often and seems to just hawk hits and otherwise play a middle pack shutdown. Not bad by any means but I'm just not in love with his play and yeah the fighting thing is fair enough but when you've got no one who will fight it's especially hard to stomach the only guy who hits not being able to fight.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 déc. 2016 à 13 h 42
Sujet: Gallagher fowler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i>lesage: If points mean anything, Silverberg has had 39 points a year for the past two years. Gallagher is marginally better. Silverberg is having his best year this year...well ahead of Gallagher.
Really the issue is # 1 Dman for a 3rd line winger....
Would # 1 LWer Patches for # 3 LHD Stoner be fair?</i></div></div>

Obviously no to the above:
So my bad IDK how I saw 32 as the top production on Silverberg - I mean to answer that firstly: frame out what the players actual value is here.
Gallagher has NOT historically played 3rd line wing and his production is pretty well = to Silverberg so I woudn't concede him as a 3rd liner. (Habs have Emelin on the top line but that's not what he is)
With that in mind I'd say what we have is maybe a #2 winger for a #1 LHD (But you have to recognize that Fowler having a good year isn't the same as him being a #1 defender - I'd say his value is closer to that of a Petry or Myers) - Assuming it was YES absolutely you don't make that trade one-one but if you're a team that can't afford to keep a player (Chicago every damn year) or Expansion vulnerable you have a different situation.
Our disconnect is based on where we see Gally (I've seen heart/grit and production through team slumps from him as well as a superb contract) and our perceived Anaheim Narrative. If I'm a GM that has a surplus of Defense I consider selling, It may not be Fowler. If it is Gallagher offers them a near fair value, the difference IMO is subject to when he's moved and how the two fair up to March.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 déc. 2016 à 13 h 30
Sujet: Gallagher fowler
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaptainFlynnt</b></div><div><i>I still think the answer to weber's parter can be solved internally with Beaulieu. He makes some stupid plays sometimes but if we were patient with him I'm sure he'd become a staple in our top 4 for the next 6 years on a reasonable contract. The latest game I watched was that 4-2 loss to San Jose and I thought beaulieu played a big role in starting that comeback with his breakout ability.

Weber with beaulieu get an additional goal/60 than weber wth emelin. They also got scored on slightly less for a GF% of 80% vs. 66%
<a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=265&amp;withagainst=true&amp;season=2016-17&amp;sit=5v5" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=265&amp;withagainst=true&amp;season=2016-17&amp;sit=5v5</a></i></div></div>

I agree he should get another go with Weber - I really do like Beau (I really would love to see him getting the chance with someone, that's why the Jets made sense to me). What he does is move the puck well (through N-zone) and has heart (willingness to fight, unlike emelin hip checking with 1 minute to go and then hiding because his face can't handle a punch).
Forum: Armchair-GM19 déc. 2016 à 13 h 27
Sujet: Gallagher fowler
Palhal: I'd also say that the whole narrative has to be right - You can't make a reasonable trade for Fowler if the team is taking the perspective of, he's our best defender and we don't move him. It's not unfair to say but they have too many defense and will lose one to expansion if they don't deal (just resigned Lindholm).
Now they may say forget it and we'll take our chances but that's not the perspective this trade is based on (IT IS A TRADE). What they've done is make a sound move long term (better contract and freedom from too many defense contracts) and one that keeps them competitive short term (they could continue into playoffs with Gally on the 2nd line and be better in that way).
Fowler is likely traded in March leaving a few games left in the season and playoffs - otherwise he's on the final year of his contact making him a UFA who will want IMO 5-5.5.