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dgibb10
I Love J Boqvist
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Devils du New Jersey
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ÉQUIPES VIA FAUTEUIL-DG
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mer. à 12 h 34
Sujet:
Young Talent That Hughes Could Target
NJD isn’t moving Mercer for that. Maybe we’d move holtz but still probably not
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mer. à 11 h 13
Sujet:
One more try with Ovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MyTeamsSuck</b></div><div>Crazier thing have happened</div></div>
Meh the only comparable would be Jared McCanns 40 on 20 expected goals. But again banking on a player to shoot double their expectation is wild, even the best shooters in the NHL do that once in a blue moon. And while Yegor has a good shot, he certainly isn’t one of the best shooters in the NHL
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mer. à 10 h 54
Sujet:
One more try with Ovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MyTeamsSuck</b></div><div>I think he could’ve hit 40 this year. For a good portion of the season he was placed at C, which in hindsight was a bad idea, he’s clearly not built for it. That harmed his numbers. It at least costed him 10 goals. Put him with a playmaker and a play driver and I think he could.</div></div>
There’s no way he could hit 40 unless he suddenly massively improves his entire game at age 26. He generated 21 expected goals and that’s with PP1 time. Let’s be very realistic
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 23 h 56
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>So that dismisses it?
He also followed it up by having better numbers this year than all but one of Schneider’s years throughout his career for whatever that means</div></div>
10-11: 8th in GSAx (0.789 GSAx/60 1st)
11-12: 6th in GSAx (0.547 GSAx/60 2nd behind Henrik)
12-13: 9th in GSAx (0.29 GSAx/60 7th)
Overall: 43.11 total, 4th in total GSAx, 0.524 GSAx/60 (2nd)
The rankings in GSAx over that time (minimum 45 games):
Henrik: 0.562
Schneider:0.524
Dubnyk: 0.380
Ward: 0.310
Luongo: 0.217
Rask: 0.214
Halak: 0.205
No other goalie was above 0.200
Swayman over the last 3 years is at
39.47 GSAx (9th), 0.340 GSAx/60 (7th if you don't count Stolarz, Varlamov, or Ingram)
Over the last 2 years he is 6th in total GSAx with 43.78, 1 spot ahead of Samuel Montembault.
And 3rd in GSAx/60.
In that time frame (minimum 45 games and this is a HARDER minimum to reach considering it's 2 years instead of 3):
Ullmark: 0.680
Stolarz: 0.617
Helle: 0.596
Swayman: 0.5737
Sorokin: 0.519
Varlamov: 0.453
Montembault: 0.443
Saros: 0.428
Rittich: 0.418
Shesty: 0.401
Andersen: 0.381
Ingram: 0.364
Skinner: 0.301
Daccord: 0.300
Markstrom: 0.293
Demko: 0.286
Pyotr: 0.286
Adin Hill: 0.266
Vasy: 0.227
Gustafsson: 0.211
Oetter: 0.206
Binnington: 0.205
So Swayman has a 0.574 in a time frame where 21 other goalies are above 0.200. Luongo was 5th over that time frame, he'd rank 20th in this time frame
Schneider has his 0.524 in a time frame where 6 other goalies are above 0.200
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 22 h 55
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>Filter by 30 starts. Showing people without scale seems like a reach. There are some anomaly years on there, but overall the leaders above .300
2024 - 6 leader at .557
2021 - 5 leader at .500
2018 - 9 leader at .695
2015 - 8 leader at .501
2012 - 5 leader at .557
2008 - 5 leader at 471
Leaders
Brian Elliot -.711 (2016)
Tim Thomas - .706 (2011)
Anti Rantaa -.695 (2018j
Igor Shesterkin -.666 (2022)
Kari Lehronen - .607 (2013)
Phillip Grubauer -.601 (2018)
Last year was a complete anomaly and then it returned to zero this year
Linus Ullmark - .883
Juuse Saros - .735
Jeremy Swayman -.715
Ilya Sorokin - .647
Filip Gustavsson - .628</div></div>
So what you're saying is Swayman has his numbers driven by a large anomaly season where almost as many goalies hit 0.600 GSAx/60 than the previous decade combined?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 22 h 22
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>Goals above expected per 60 is a pretty neutral statistic that has been pretty consistent among league leaders for years even if non advanced statistics vary.
Swayman has been better. It’s not a rip on Schneider and yes … Ullmark has been the best goaltender in the league over a two year span.</div></div>
Not really. 26 goalies this year have a GSAx above 10. In 11-12 that number was 9 (I would have used 12-13 but it was the lockout year)
Nikolai Khabibulin was 10th in GSAx in 11-12 with 8.72
This year that would rank 28th, where Joseph Woll is.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 22 h 12
Sujet:
Devils
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>You're undervaluing Fehervary. Would you move Marino + 17 for Alexeyev + 10 + 2nd???</div></div>
I'm not an expert on Alexeyev.
I'd likely lean no because of the current team state of needing to add to our dcore as we try to compete, but I'm not sure the value is too far off.
What specific overall pick would you value as equivalent to Fehevary for a frame of reference?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 22 h 10
Sujet:
rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NJDevils1317</b></div><div>This has to be one of the worst posters around these days. Not a lick of logic to the trades. Nah, going to just give him the award. He's officially the worst out there.
Congrats!</div></div>
This is the 3rd different ACGM for 3 different teams (blues, seattle, pittsburgh) this user has tried to get Dawson Mercer for scraps on
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 22 h 0
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>i'm saying it's a bad comp because Swayman>>>>Schneider.</div></div>
Cory Schneider was literally him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 21 h 59
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tupty</b></div><div>This is correct. I think a late round first or an early 2nd rounder + 3rd rounder is probably the appropriate range, given his play of late, the likely demand for G in the offseason, and the lack of quality UFA G this offseason.
Situationally, it doesn't make sense for the Bruins to give up Swayman for a single pick likely near #10. You can argue about fair value and comps until you are blue in the face, you can present all of the numbers, and I won't try to counter them because that stuff doesn't matter. Many of you who follow the NJD-BOS threads already know my song-and-dance routine on this topic, so I'll spare you all this time.</div></div>
I 100% agree that Swayman shouldn't be moved for 10th overall. I have consistently said I'd add to either 10th overall or Mercer for Swayman. Goalie market has changed. But Schneider was imo better than Swayman is now.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 21 h 56
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>Swayman .561 GsAx/60 over 81 starts in 2 years
Schneider .397 GSSx/60 over 63 starts in 2 years
Swayman is better</div></div>
that mark had Cory Schneider 2nd in the NHL over that span behind only Henrik
Swayman ranks 3rd, and is 2nd on his own team.
That's like comparing point totals from today to when Jamie Benn won the art ross. Is an 88 point scorer from this year better than Benn was then?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 57
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>schneider was a clear backup getting the easier matchups. swayman was in a platoon.</div></div>
Jeremy Swayman playing in 49.4% of team games the last 2 years: flirting
Cory Schneider playing in 48.5% of team games in his last 2 years in Van: harassment
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 54
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>schneider was a clear backup getting the easier matchups. swayman was in a platoon.</div></div>
Schneider was literally the starter in 2012-13 but okay
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 50
Sujet:
Trade Down Pricing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Walman should be made available. Probably won't though. A bit of a down year I would agree. I think he was battling injuries alot this year. Would be hard to determine value, I wouldn't package him with our 1st though. Losing him to upgrade wouldn't be worth it. Walman and a second I doubt gets it done either. Maybe adding Veleno or something in. Who knows though, really hard trade to gauge. Willing to discuss proposals tough.</div></div>
10th overall+2nd rounder for 15th+Walman, maybe NJD adds something else?
I'm not great at gauging the value of trading down. I have Walman something like the Sandin price of a very late 1st, would that be equivalent to the 2nd+ moving up? idk
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 48
Sujet:
Free agency build out 24-25
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>frenchfry</b></div><div>Good point. I don't want to see Mercer go because despite the down year, I think he could be our version of Palat (from his TBL days). If you're right about Markstrom or Ullmark, I'd take either assuming the price is mostly picks/prospects. But we can only assume what the price is.</div></div>
We can look at the likes of any goalie trade that has occurred ever.
The only 1 to fetch a top 10 pick was Schneider. And he'd be more like Swayman or Oetter
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 46
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Celtics21</b></div><div>Go ahead and make it two years if you’d like on Swayman :).</div></div>
6th in GSAx, 3rd in SV% for Swayman compared to Schneider 4th in GSAx and 1st in SV%?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 42
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>schneider is a bad comp for swayman.</div></div>
Cory Schneider= Mid 20s, 2 years term
Swayman= Mid 20s, 2 years rfa control
Schneider over the previous 3 years:
1st in SV%, 1st in GAA, 4th in GSAx
Swayman:
6th in sv%, 6th in GAA, 9th in GSAx
Neither were full time starters playing every 2 days.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 27
Sujet:
The best team possible - does not mean realistic or likely
Linus Ullmark does not fetch a top 10 pick.
If you're trying to find a comp to the Cory Schneider trade, there is one on bostons roster. It's not ullmark tho
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 17 h 7
Sujet:
One more try with Ovi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MyTeamsSuck</b></div><div>I’d rather have Yegor. I think he still has more in him, especially if he’s playing on his proper wing with Zary and a better Huberdeau. Plus if the PP actually gets going, he’ll have a field day on there too. I could see 40+ goals in the future</div></div>
Do you really see that in Yegor?
He had a great year shooting and got PP time for once, but of his 4 years here's how this year ranks:
At even strength individual metrics:
shots/60: worst
shot attempts/60: worst
xgoals/60: worst
points/60: 3rd worst
goals/60: 1st (again driven by shooting heater)
On ice metrics:
goals%: worst
shots%: 2nd
corsi: worst
fenwick: 2nd
xGoals%: worst
and that's despite getting the most offensive zone starts of his career.
He shot 17.3%, but his overall game did not get better. At age 25 he'd either have to get to even more ridiculous shooting rates, or vastly improve his underlyings to reach 40
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 16 h 59
Sujet:
Devils
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Looks about right to me
2nd = Malenstyn
Bahl + 2nd + 3rd = Fehervary
1st (#10) = 1st (#17) + 2nd + 3rd
Net......#10, 2nd, Bahl = Malenstyn, Fehervary, #17
(not sure they would move Fehervary though)</div></div>
Yeah I don't think fehevary he would be on the block, but in my eyes the value felt right. And fun to mess with some new names. Maybe if there's someone they really like at 10
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
mar. à 16 h 57
Sujet:
NJ gets their wish Marky 50 retained
Jacob Markstrom, sub 0.900 over the last 2 years, in his mid 30s, returns more than double the largest goalie package of the last decade.
Again, he's much closer to Fleury from Chicago to Minnesota
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 16 h 54
Sujet:
Trade Down Pricing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>If Catton is available, I would hope we do that. Maybe the cost is a bit much. Maybe we send a player instead of all the picks. Veleno maybe?</div></div>
I'd be trying to pry Walman somehow as NJD.
That would leave Edvinsson, Chiarot, Maata, Wallinder and maybe Ghost on the left side?
My impression was that he had a down year, am I correct in that?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 16 h 52
Sujet:
Markstrom Andersson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Malenstyn is a good one....size/speed</div></div>
What do you think he would cost? Maybe Fehevary as a younger target to fill the 2LD role?
How much would we have to add onto a pick Swap of the 1sts for Malenstyn and/or Fehevary?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 16 h 48
Sujet:
full rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>He scores too many goals and makes too many nice plays for your style of play.
He's a lot faster than Toffoli, a lot younger, shoots as well or better and can do a lot more than just shoot. You gave us Sharangovich and a 3rd for Toffoli it'll take more than that to get Kuzmenko. Conroy will be happy to fleece your GM again.</div></div>
Kuzmenko skating ranks in the 0th%ile.
Toffoli skating ranks in the 9th%ile
Forum:
Armchair-GM
mar. à 16 h 31
Sujet:
full rebuild
Kuzmenko is incredibly slow, even slower than Toffoli.
Which makes him a terrible fit alongside Jack Hughes.
And since he is incapable of playing defensive hockey, you can't play him alongside hischier, or in a bottom 6 defensive role
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