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Forum:
NHL Signings
8 sept. 2023 à 14 h 7
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div><strong>Am I missing something, or is Ottawa looking awfully capped out next year?</strong>
$8,400,000 | Timothy Stutzle (F)
$8,200,000 | Brady Tkachuk (F)
$8,000,000 | Joshua Norris (F)
$8,000,000 | Jake Sandeson (D)
$8,000,000 | Tomas Chabot (D)
$6,500,000 | Claude Giroux (F)
$5,000,000 | Drake Batheson (F)
$4,600,000 | Jakob Chychrun (D)
$4,600,000 | Artem Zubbens (D)
$4,000,000 | Jonas Korpisalo (G)
$3,000,000 | Mathieu Joseph (F)
$2,800,000 | Anton Forsberg (G)
-------------------------------------------
71,200,000 | 12 Player Totals
12,300,000 | 11 Player Budget
<strong>Even after adding cap growth, can they afford to re-sign these guys?</strong>
$5,000,000 | Vladimir Tarasenko (?)
$3,000,000 | Dominik Kubalik (?)
$3,000,000 | Erik Branstrom (?)
$3,000,000 | Shane Pintos (?)</div></div>
For the 2024-25 season, the Senators project to have 13.7M of cap space under an 87.5M cap ceiling. This is with a 16 player roster. That means that the Senators can spend an average of 1.957M to fill out a 23 player roster, or 2.74M to use a smaller 21 player roster.
I don't think Erik Brannstrom will be qualified. He will have arbitration rights. After playing out the 23-24 season, he will have accrued nearly 300 games played. Given that he is a #5-7 type defenseman on Ottawa, I doubt the Senators will want to take the chance that he is awarded a settlement that is higher than he is worth to them, but not high enough for them to be able to walk away from it. He will either be traded some time this season, or they won't qualify him. He is not a big piece. They might get a late pick for him in a trade from a team willing to try him out and gamble to see if he can get to that next level.
As far as Pinto goes, I suspect the Senators pay the price to dump Joseph and that money goes to Pinto. If that is the case, that would leave enough to keep one of Kubalik or Tarasenko, or to let both walk and acquire another 3M-5M type forward to replace them. The rest of the roster would get filled out with players who make 1M or less.
The question isn't how will the Senators fill out a roster or keep everybody. All the core is locked down now. They should have the cap flexibility to keep their RFAs on bridge deals. They may have to move on from some veterans like Tarasenko, Kubalik, Forsberg, or Hamonic - but those aren't core guys.
The real question or concern is, what will the Senators do if one of the core pieces does not live up to their contract. Norris and Korpisalo both come to mind, maybe even Chabot if he has another questionable season. Everybody is locked in for 4-8 years now, and it is tremendously difficult to move big contracts with term. There is very little margin for error with how Dorion has locked in the team. Dorion has basically ensured that regardless of whether he is fired, the Senators team of the next 5 years will be the team that he constructed, because outside of something diabolical like trading Brady Tkachuk or Tim Stutzle, there would not be a reasonable way for a new GM to put their stamp on the team. We almost never see two legit young stars traded for each other, so the only reason Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson, Chabot, or Norris would be traded is if they aren't living up to their contracts - in which case, they would be impossible to trade. The team core you see now is locked in for the next 5 or so years, and it will be very difficult for whoever is in charge to ice anything other than Dorion's vision.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 58
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>If this contract hits (which I won’t doubt) and Sanderson develops into what he’s hyped up to be this could end up being one of the bigger steals in recent memory
If it fails we have another OEL situation
This is really rolling the dice</div></div>
It is not even close to the OEL situation because Sanderson did not get anything to impede a buyout such as front-loaded money or signing bonuses.
If Sanderson sucks, the Senators have until 2028 to buy out 2/3rds of the contract spread out over twice the length. Meaning, they would only have a cap penalty of 1.342M per season. Consider that the cap may exceed 100M by that time (and conservatively should be above 90M).
OEL's contract had signing bonuses until 2023-24, which made a buyout pointless until that time. Then the eventual buyout cost well over 5M some seasons and or most seasons costs at least 2.5M.
People have to account for the buyout formula and contract structure which significantly lowers the risk the Senators take on by getting this done early. The risk of waiting on a player like this exceeds the risk of signing him now.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 52
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>Sanderson is better than Chabot and Chychrun
If you went to the games, let alone watching team (not a critics comment, more of a statement); you could tell 85 was the best defender on the ice for a BAD Sens team defensively. He was also utilized in high pressure situations consistently by the end of the year and looked better than any other competitors on the team for the same role.</div></div>
People don't watch the Senators because they aren't a contender/playoff team.
People think Sanderson was a mid to late first round talent who the Senators went off the board with, because they don't pay attention to anything in the scouting community, and scout by reading comments on Reddit. The same thing happened with Brady Tkachuk.
If Sanderson was pegged for years going into the draft to be selected 1st or 2nd overall, which is where he'd likely go today in a re-draft, people would be fine with this contract.
This is a player who prior to debuting in the NHL was pegged as a blue chip defensive prospect and as close as you can get to a sure thing top pairing defenseman. Then in his first year he ascended to the point where he was the best and most important defenseman on a team that after the TDL had a strong top 4 with Chabot, Zub, and Chych. Yet, people are going bananas about him getting less than 10 percent of the cap ceiling (even less when the contract kicks in), when historically there probably isn't a defenseman who has done what he has done on his ELC who got less than 10-11 percent. Chabot is one of the few examples, and Chabot's performance in his breakout season that got him the contract was not as good as Sanderson's performance this past season.
Could this contract end up badly? Sure. Every contract has risk. But the risk of Sanderson costing more in the long run is much greater than the risk that he doesn't live up to this contract. The U26 buyout is also very cheap. Up until 2028, they can buy him out for a cap penalty of only 1.342M. That significantly lowers the risk of the contract, especially when you consider how 1.342M would look against a 90M-100M cap ceiling.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 45
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>It will be interesting to compare the deal Jake Sanderson got with the deal that Jamie Drysdale gets.
(Of course, they are two entirely different styles of defensemen aside from the lefty-righty thing, but it will still be interesting.)</div></div>
That's like saying Stutzle's contract will effect what Lafreniere will get.
Sanderson is in another stratosphere compared to Drysdale. The Lafreniere comparison might not even be a good one, because even with how large the gap has been production wise between Lafreniere and Stutzle, the gap between Drysdale and Sanderson as defensemen is even larger.
People brought up the Chychrun RFA contract earlier, and wondered why he got so little, Drysdale is a pretty similar scenario. He's had an okay ELC but hasn't broken out as anything more than a mid-pairing tweener. He also suffered a major injury and missed almost the entire season. By comparison, Sanderson was the best defenseman who took the toughest matchups and by the end of the season was playing the biggest minutes.
Drysdale will likely get 2-3 years at low bridge money. 1.5-2.5 million. If they somehow go long term, it will be in the 4.5-5.5 million range because the Ducks take all the risk. With the Sanderson contract, the risk is equal on both sides in terms of leaving money on the table or putting too much on the table.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 36
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyManiac95</b></div><div>That's a fair point. I would've gone the bridge route tho since this is based on a <strong>big if</strong>. If he doesn't light it up, then this contract looks gosh awful. But like you said, could be great if he spikes</div></div>
Even if he takes a step back, a bridge would have been 5-6M or so for 2-3 years. Then you're looking at 9M+ x 5-8 years if the cap DOESN'T go up as expected. If the cap does go up, that number will increase.
People don't understand that he won't be any cheaper on an 8 year deal, because it's not like he is some flash in the pan who came out of nowhere. He was always expected to be a top pairing defenseman. If he has a bad season, he's not going to come out and sign 6 or 7 million x 8 years, he will want a bridge deal. A long term deal at best will come in at the same amount, at worst, it will come in higher.
Cost certainty is also very important. Saving 2M or less for the next 3 years is a lot less valuable than knowing that Sanderson will never cost more than 8M for the next 9 seasons (ooops, 8.05M, sorry Chabot). Aside from Pinto and Sogaard (or whoever becomes the goalie of the future), the Senators now have their U30 core signed long term, and for better or worse they know what everybody will cost for the next 5 seasons. This is a huge advantage strategically.
People who don't watch Ottawa do not understand how good of a season he had. A lot of people also don't understand that Sanderson wasn't an off the board pick at #5. He was a riser who many teams had at that spot or higher. Ottawa had him at #4. There was a strange bias against him by fans when he was selected, because there were players there who were talked about for a longer period of time. People seem to think he was a reach.
Signing a blue chip top 5 talent defenseman to an 8 year deal after he has one of the best rookie defenseman seasons in franchise history isn't outlandish. He signed for slightly less (cap hit percentage wise) that most historical comparisons signed at. He also did not get front-loaded money, signing bonuses, or strong trade protection (10-team list is nothing).
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 23
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I guess Bedard gets $13.26M next week? :) cheers</div></div>
Could you elaborate? I don't understand.
If Bedard was a UFA at 18 instead of draft eligible, he probably would get 13.26M from someone.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 1 h 31
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rangsey</b></div><div>Valid but Karlsson, Doughty Pietro were signed a long time ago.
Deals for Makar and Fox would have lowered the Dahlin deal. Now this one comes along and regard of UFA/RFA status LHD in the NHL can expect to get paid more than they would have yesterday.</div></div>
Makar signed coming right off his ELC. He has 4 RFA years in the deal, Dahlin only has 1. Had Makar signed a bridge like Dahlin, and played out his remaining RFA years, he also would be in the 10-12 million range.
Fox also didn't bridge. His deal has 4 RFA years in it.
That is why they aren't entirely comparable. Dahlin's contract was basically a UFA contract since it only had 1 (arb) RFA year in it.
Werenski, Jones, McAvoy, Nurse, etc - those players are all north of 9M and at a similar age bracket to Dahlin. They all signed for north of 9 on contracts that either entirely or almost entirely buy up UFA years. The Dahlin deal makes sense in the context of those deals.
The Sanderson deal does nothing to push forward or change how young defensemen are dealt with. If a player is a top pairing defenseman on their ELC, and they sign 7-8 years, they get 10-11 percent of the cap. Sanderson is considered to be a blue chip defense prospect who was just the best defender on his team as a rookie, and played top pairing minutes with difficult assignments. The only thing that is peculiar about this contract is Sanderson getting it after 1 season instead of 2, but that is not enough to dictate that it has somehow reset or changed the market.
If Buffalo is negotiating with Owen Power, it's not like they were about to sign him for 7.5 x 8 and now they are going, WAIT A MINUTE SANDERSON GOT 8...and then someone butts in and goes "Excuse me sir, it was actually 8.05!" - They likely already know that Power is going to get anywhere from 8.2M-9.2M (on 7-8 years), because that is what all the historical comparisons would put him at, and Sanderson's contract did nothing to alter those comparisons. Power is seen as the better player, and was seen as the more coveted prospect, so he's already lined up to get more.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 1 h 3
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MatthewsFan</b></div><div>Gotta ask, why did OTT trade for Jakob Chychrun. Are they planning on paying 3 LD over 7+ million.</div></div>
Ottawa needed another top 4 defenseman. Chychrun had term on a great contract, and had local ties. He can play both sides so handedness is less relevant. None of the three have strong trade protection, so it isn't as though they couldn't make a change if they felt they needed to move someone out. Chychrun is also a local boy, who seems to be excited to play for Ottawa. Similar to how Debrincat signed a soft contract to go to Detroit, Ottawa might be able to convince Chychrun to take a little bit less because he wants to be in Ottawa.
The cap is also projected to go up by a large amount. Capfriendly has it set at 92 million for the year a Chychrun extension would kick in. Chabot and Sanderson at 8M under a 92M cap would be like having them at 7.25M under the current 83.5M cap. If they can convince Chychrun to take a hometown discount and come in at somewhere around 8 million, that's doable.
I could also see them possibly trading Chabot at one point before the rest of the league realize he is shell-shocked from being made to play 30 minutes a game on a budget Ottawa Senators team for many years. The thing is, they really don't have any good prospects on defense, so I can't seem them doing that unless there is a deal to bring in another top 4 defenseman from somewhere else. Unless someone breaks out unexpectedly, they don't have anybody in the system who could fill a top 4 spot internally.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 55
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>I'm curious how pissed off Chychrun is. Dude came off a .38ppg season as a 1st pair D in AZ and signed a 6 year $4.6M per deal when the cap ceiling was $81.5M. Sanderson coming off ONE YEAR at .41ppg season NOT on the 1st pair while the cap was $83.5M...got EIGHT MILLION PER!!!!
***EDIT*** Honest question here. How is his contract even up? He played zero games in 2021-2022. He signed his deal on March 22nd of 2022. I know I'm the one missing something, but it still feels off.</div></div>
-Chychrun only signed for 6 years.
-He had added incentive to secure the bag due to facing injuries in his first two seasons that he played before signing.
-Chychrun did not have rookie or sophomore years anywhere near as strong as Sanderson's rookie year. He wasn't a top pairing defenseman.
-Chychrun's resume prior to entering the NHL also was nowhere near as strong as Sanderson's.
They are apples to oranges. Chychrun was a bottom pairing D as a rookie, and a mid-pairing D as a sophomore, He didn't break out as a top pairing defenseman until after signing the contract. Sanderson was the Senators #1 defenseman by the end of the season and overall had the toughest deployment all season.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 49
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rangsey</b></div><div>Did the Senators just sign this deal to screw over the Buffalo Sabres? Did this deal make Dahlin an extra million dollars</div></div>
Dahlin's deal was basically a UFA deal. It only has 1 RFA year in it. For Dahlin, the comparison's would be Karlsson, Dougthy Pietrangelo, etc.
It's likely the opposite, that Dahlin signing for 10.5 put into perspective that 8M for an 8 year deal with 6 RFA years is market value for Sanderson. If you combined both of Dahlin's two contracts and just take the 8 years after his ELC, his AAV would have been about 8.8M. Given that Dahlin is better than Sanderson, that makes sense.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 46
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Conbon</b></div><div>Buyout costs 1.3m this is not nearly as risky as everyone is saying it is.</div></div>
That is something people need to consider with these U26 contracts.
The fan sentiment towards Sanderson has been negative ever since he was drafted because people online who aren't in the scouting community have a bias against risers. He had an extremely strong draft year and would have been taken by multiple teams in the top 5 ahead of Drysdale. Yet, because people get attached to names that hyped up for years ahead of the draft, he was a controversial pick at 5 - and because the Senators aren't a popular team right now, not a lot of people watched him as a rookie.
This is a no-brainer contract.
Forum:
NHL Signings
7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 42
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
Sanderson was Ottawa's best defenseman last year. By the end of the season, he was relied on to play the toughest minutes. He's already used in a top pairing role. He can do everything from be a shutdown guy, transition, PP, etc. The typical cap hit percentage for a defenseman who breaks out as a top pairing D on their ELC and signs a 7-8 year deal has historically been between 10-11 percent.
This is a no-brainer contract. If they don't sign him now, he isn't coming in cheaper next year. He will either come in at a similar price, more expensive, or they will have to risk signing a 2-3 year 5-6 million AAV type bridge deal.
Chabot's AAV likely also influenced what Sanderson received. Hilariously, the got 50k more than Chabot.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
31 août 2023 à 12 h 2
Sujet:
Joseph2nd for LTIR Contracts4th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jimtrott44</b></div><div>Retain 50% on Joseph, exchange the #2 for Ostapchuk and leave out the AZ #4 and there might be a deal.</div></div>
It doesn't make sense from Ottawa's POV because they can bury Joseph and get 1.125M in cap relief. They aren't going to burn a retention spot and attach a 2nd round tier asset to Joseph, while also taking on LTIR contracts (that are still owed millions after insurance) just to get 350k in cap space
If the offer was Joseph half-retained for a later pick or future considerations, that makes a bit more sense. Even then, I doubt the Senators would go up to full retention because Joseph's buyout next year would only be 3.7M/4 years (750k/750k/1.1M/1.1M). If they retain half, they only save about 700k in cap over those 4 years, and it's spread over 2 years which intensifies the cap penalty and makes it more difficult to work around, especially since the cap will go up in the later years and the 1.1M will represent a smaller portion of the cap.
Saying Joseph has too much term so the trade wouldn't work for the Coyotes is perfectly reasonable. But the counter where the Senators give up boatloads of assets for little to no cap benefit doesn't make any sense.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
30 août 2023 à 10 h 48
Sujet:
Joseph2nd for LTIR Contracts4th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bwhsocal</b></div><div>like the thinking (unlike every TML proposal) but 2 problems - joseph is 9.3m real cash over 3 years, a lot cheaper are the 2 LTIR and the only Fs that dont need to clear waivers are cooley and guenther, doubt they drop one to bring in joseph.
unfortunately for OTT Kubalik is better option (I imagine youd want to keep him) but he is on last year (can TDL) and about same cap hit way and more attractive, 31 GMs know OTT is a bind no cap space and really need to sign Pinto.
think the cap max in training camp is 110%-cant take both to LTIR prolly only Voracek works-which AZ can LRIT little easily if needed</div></div>
My theory is that Ottawa and Pinto have already agreed on a contract. Either 1 year at 1M or 2 years at 2M (give or take a few 100k in either direction). They are waiting to see how much cap space Ottawa can generate before signing it. They will sign it before training camp opens. The Senators and Pierre Dorion negotiate big time through the media (see the Garrioch articles when they were having trouble with Debrincat). If there were problems with Pinto, we would know. Similar to how we knew there were problems with Brady Tkachuk when he held out.
With the above said, moving Kubalik or Brannstrom probably isn't enough. It would only allow the Senators to either sign Pinto to a 1 year deal or roll with a 21 player roster, which is too dysfunctional. It's fine for a contender who can coast through the regular season to do the 21 player thing, but for a young team who still needs to prove themselves, it's a huge handicap.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
30 août 2023 à 10 h 44
Sujet:
Joseph2nd for LTIR Contracts4th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Yotes269</b></div><div>Arizona isn’t interested in paying a 4th liner $9m over his contract when they can pay league min for the same production. We’ve got enough 2nds</div></div>
I agree that the term is the killer.
Arizona could likely attach a 2nd round pick to him next off season, and dump him somewhere else. Basically, rent him for 1 year at cash in/cash out. If he doesn't bounce back, move on from him.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
29 août 2023 à 16 h 12
Sujet:
Joseph2nd for LTIR Contracts4th
This is a variation of a trade proposal I posted here a few weeks ago.
The story of the off season for the Coyotes has been that they want to compete. They are a budget team, which means they care about REAL DOLLARS, not cap. They have these two LTIR contracts that they have to pay real dollars to not to play for them.
Apparently, insurance covers up to 80 percent of the contracts. This means that the two LTIR contracts could still cost the Coyotes as little as 2.25M this season. Joseph makes 2.7M in real dollars. He also takes up a roster spot, which saves the Coyotes another 400k-775k+ since the Coyotes will get to send down someone on a 2-way contract whose spot Joseph will occupy. That makes this deal cash in/cash out for the Coyotes this season, but they also get an NHL player (instead of paying for nothing), and they upgrade a 4th to a 2nd.
The Senators need to dump Joseph in order to sign Pinto to a 1-2 year bridge deal at 1M-2M, and fill out at least a 22 player roster under the cap. Taking these LTIR contracts is fine because they expired at the end of the season, and the Senators will be 4-5 figures away from the 83.5M cap ceiling. Which means they would lose very little bankable cap space by going into LTI.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
29 août 2023 à 16 h 5
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators 2023-24 Opening Night Roster
I have been playing around with the roster to try and figure out ways to max out the 83.5M with LTIR. I didn't realize this auto-saved my changes.
Sending Forsberg down was the original idea, but the Senators could also simply set a 22 player roster and probably get within 100k of the cap ceiling without having to waive anybody who they wouldn't waive anyways. The big problem with that is that 100k could end up as a big deal with LTIR. For example, let's say they play a player who makes 775k on LTIR and need to call up a new body. Squeezing out an extra 100k would allow them more options. Otherwise, they have to recall someone making league minimum.
A loophole, which other teams have used, is to sign a player to a 2-way contract with the exact cap hit needed to hit 83.5M. If I recall, Tampa Bay did this. The idea is that the player is going to stay on the AHL team all year, but they get assigned to the NHL roster for opening night instead of the player who actually made the team. So lets say Kelly Parker earned the final forward spot, but at 762.5K, it would leave the Senators 20k short of hitting the cap ceiling before placing their injured players on LTIR. They would sign a veteran pro to a 2-way contract with an NHL salary of 782.5k. Assign them to the opening night roster instead of Kelly. Then when they are legally able to, they send the AHLer down and recall Kelly. Of course, Kelly could be claimed on waivers, but that's a low risk proposition.
If I recall, the NHL has certain rules in place about how long a team must wait before changing the opening night roster, but in a situation like this, the 13th forward being different won't matter much.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
26 août 2023 à 11 h 24
Sujet:
Ottawa Senators 2023-24 Opening Night Roster
-The Senators intend to run a 22 player roster with Forsberg as the backup goalie. But to get there they need to first assign Forsberg to the minors in order to max out LTIR.
-Forsberg will start the season in the minors for cap reasons related to LTIR. Sending Forsberg down allows the Senators to get back 1.125M in cap space because Forsberg's contract exceeds the threshold for buried players. Forsberg is very unlikely to be claimed due to his previous injury, his outstanding term, and how little cap space there is to go around in the league. (Alternatively, they could keep Forsberg in the NHL and use Brannstrom as the body to send down temporarily, but I think Brannstrom would be more likely to get claimed.)
-Currie and Mandolese are also not going to stay on the roster. They are only there to max out the Senators cap hit so that when they place Voracek and Little on LTIR, they are as close as possible to the 83.5M ceiling.
-Pinto will sign a 2 year 1.8M AAV contract. Lafreniere is a comparable. Lafreniere has played 3 full pro seasons and averaged close to 20 goals. Lafreniere is also a much bigger name as a former 1st overall pick. Pinto has 1 pro season and is a 10.2(c) RFA, which gives him very little negotiating power. A 1.8M AAV contract on a 2 year deal seems in line with other comparable contracts. It would bridge Pinto to arbitration and give the Senators some breathing room before having to sign him.
-Note that the lines and D pairings aren't meant to reflect who will play with who. It's only meant to reflect who will be on the roster for cap reasons. I will not guess what lines the Senators will use.
-After opening night when the Senators can send down Currie and Mandolese, and recall Forsberg, they will have a 22 player roster with 407k of cap space. They will be in LTI for the entire season so that cap space will not accrue towards the trade deadline.
The Joseph to Arizona trade makes sense because Arizona is a budget team who are trying to win hockey games. Little and Voracek cost them a similar salary to what they would pay Joseph. Ottawa is no longer a budget team. They are going to be right at the ceiling of the cap, so going into LTI has less ramifications for them. Moving Joseph with a 2nd to acquire Voracek and Little and place them on LTIR means that the Senators can run with a 22 player roster and have enough cap space to sign Pinto to a 2 year deal at what should be market value for a 10.2(c) RFA with the resume of Pinto. Lafreniere has a stronger resume, wasn't a 10.2(c) RFA, and he only got slightly more than what I am proposing for Pinto. As far as Joseph's term is concerned, Arizona could ride him out for a season and if he doesn't work out, attaching a 2nd round pick to him should be enough to dump his remaining 2 years of term. Additionally, Ottawa could consider retaining up to 400k on Joseph while still making this roster work, but I think they would be reticent to retain due to his term.
Forum:
NHL Signings
24 août 2023 à 10 h 31
Sujet:
Toronto Maple Leafs signed Auston Matthews (4 Years / $13,250,000 AAV)
McDavid signed a contract that was half-RFA years. He also arguably took a discount, since he probably could have negotiated max as an RFA after his ELC.
This is entirely a UFA contract. It also doesn't buy up any seasons in Matthews 30s, so it's all prime years.
The other thing to consider is that he was already signed for almost 12M. In terms of the cap structure of the Leafs, a less than 2M raise doesn't change anything. Especially since the cap has gone up since Matthews signed that original contract. It's the status quo.
Forum:
NHL Signings
23 août 2023 à 20 h 30
Sujet:
New York Rangers signed Alexis Lafrenière (2 Years / $2,325,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>worldwidesensei</b></div><div>How would that be pointless? If you make another team pay more for a player than they want to, that is a W. It means less money for other players on their team.
This is a salary cap website. How could you possibly say paying less money is pointless?</div></div>
It's pointless because teams send offer sheets to get players and they know the Rangers are going to match.
Go tell Montreal how well strategically trying to hurt another team via an offer sheet they knew would probably be matched worked out...it isn't as if there aren't consequences.
Forum:
NHL Signings
23 août 2023 à 17 h 15
Sujet:
New York Rangers signed Alexis Lafrenière (2 Years / $2,325,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BroadwayBlueshirts</b></div><div>A team absolutely should've tried the 4.3M one on like a 2-3 year deal, they would've had to (pay to) dump Goodrow somewhere then, and it'd still make their next few summers (more) uncomfortable. But you know how it is in the NHL!</div></div>
The Rangers would have dumped a contract and matched. So it would have been pointless. Yes, it would hurt the Rangers, but we saw what happened to Montreal when they sent Aho an offer sheet that the Hurricanes would obviously match. They made an enemy, and it but them in the ass down the line.
There are also very few teams who have the cap space to pay him that and aren't also budget teams.
Earlier in the off season, I wonder if any teams approached him. The Rangers clearly had the Kakko extension as their comparable because they boxed themselves into a spot where this contract was the most they could offer.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
23 août 2023 à 16 h 1
Sujet:
SenatorsJets hockey trade to make cap 4 Pinto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Meh. I think Ottawa does better just moving Joseph out for picks</div></div>
No one will give up picks for Joseph. He is underperforming and has too much term at his cap hit.
The point of this trade is that Winnipeg gets the better roster players in the swap, they get term with Joseph, which benefits them since his cap hit is subsidized by dumping another bottom 6 forward in Appleton. Term is good for the Jets in this scenario because they have a difficult time attracting NHL veterans to Winnipeg.
For the Senators, it's entirely about cap balance. Joseph for Appleton and Brannstrom for Stanley is not going to change anything for them next year because those players will play such a minimal role, but it will help them clear space to sign Pinto and dress 22-23 players.
Sokolov is clearly at a disagreement with the team since it's unusual for an RFA of his calibre not to be signed. It's a small hit of added value for Winnipeg.
Keep in mind, this is just the basis for a deal. If the idea is the Senators need to throw in a 2nd round pick or something because they are the ones getting cap space, that doesn't really change the trade much.
I think ultimately the deal we see Ottawa make will be some sort of hockey trade like this. I think dumping Joseph completely will be too difficult. It will be something built around Joseph and maybe Brannstrom out for slightly cheaper roster players who also aren't great.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
23 août 2023 à 15 h 55
Sujet:
Sens Make Room To Sign Pinto
Pitlick's cap hit is able to be buried if he is assigned to the AHL since it is under the threshold. They can waive him and call up someone else.
They don't have the cap space for Joseph's cap hit. Yes, they currently have Guentzel on LTIR, but they can't use that space on anything other than short term call ups because they will need to be able to clear it to activate him when he returns. He isn't out for the entire season.
They also would likely want an asset to take Joseph.
Forum:
NHL Signings
22 août 2023 à 11 h 29
Sujet:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Brandon Hagel (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hollands_missing_brain</b></div><div>Didn't like all they gave Chicago for him, don't like this contract. He showed a lot of hustle in the series against Toronto but I've never understood the appeal TB has for Hagel.</div></div>
The Chicago trade was an inflated return because they paid for his cap hit just as much as they paid for the player.
If he wasn't cost controlled at 1.5M for multiple years, Chicago would have received that return. Tampa got absurd value from that trade so far. He is still signed for another year at 1.5M after scoring 30 for them at that cap hit.
Forum:
NHL Signings
22 août 2023 à 11 h 26
Sujet:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Brandon Hagel (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)
He would have been an arbitration eligible RFA.
He would not have been much cheaper on a bridge deal if he has another 30 goal season. Maybe 4.5-5.5 million on a deal that buys up his ARB RFA years.
Tampa's core is ageing, and he is one of the few younger forwards they have. The cap is going up to 90-100 million over the next few years once escrow is paid off. The only way I can see this contract being a major issue is if he got a NMC in the back half of the deal.
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