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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Forum: NHL Signings8 sept. 2023 à 14 h 7
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div><strong>Am I missing something, or is Ottawa looking awfully capped out next year?</strong>

$8,400,000 | Timothy Stutzle (F)
$8,200,000 | Brady Tkachuk (F)
$8,000,000 | Joshua Norris (F)
$8,000,000 | Jake Sandeson (D)
$8,000,000 | Tomas Chabot (D)
$6,500,000 | Claude Giroux (F)
$5,000,000 | Drake Batheson (F)
$4,600,000 | Jakob Chychrun (D)
$4,600,000 | Artem Zubbens (D)
$4,000,000 | Jonas Korpisalo (G)
$3,000,000 | Mathieu Joseph (F)
$2,800,000 | Anton Forsberg (G)
-------------------------------------------
71,200,000 | 12 Player Totals
12,300,000 | 11 Player Budget

<strong>Even after adding cap growth, can they afford to re-sign these guys?</strong>

$5,000,000 | Vladimir Tarasenko (?)
$3,000,000 | Dominik Kubalik (?)
$3,000,000 | Erik Branstrom (?)
$3,000,000 | Shane Pintos (?)</div></div>

For the 2024-25 season, the Senators project to have 13.7M of cap space under an 87.5M cap ceiling. This is with a 16 player roster. That means that the Senators can spend an average of 1.957M to fill out a 23 player roster, or 2.74M to use a smaller 21 player roster.

I don't think Erik Brannstrom will be qualified. He will have arbitration rights. After playing out the 23-24 season, he will have accrued nearly 300 games played. Given that he is a #5-7 type defenseman on Ottawa, I doubt the Senators will want to take the chance that he is awarded a settlement that is higher than he is worth to them, but not high enough for them to be able to walk away from it. He will either be traded some time this season, or they won't qualify him. He is not a big piece. They might get a late pick for him in a trade from a team willing to try him out and gamble to see if he can get to that next level.

As far as Pinto goes, I suspect the Senators pay the price to dump Joseph and that money goes to Pinto. If that is the case, that would leave enough to keep one of Kubalik or Tarasenko, or to let both walk and acquire another 3M-5M type forward to replace them. The rest of the roster would get filled out with players who make 1M or less.

The question isn't how will the Senators fill out a roster or keep everybody. All the core is locked down now. They should have the cap flexibility to keep their RFAs on bridge deals. They may have to move on from some veterans like Tarasenko, Kubalik, Forsberg, or Hamonic - but those aren't core guys.

The real question or concern is, what will the Senators do if one of the core pieces does not live up to their contract. Norris and Korpisalo both come to mind, maybe even Chabot if he has another questionable season. Everybody is locked in for 4-8 years now, and it is tremendously difficult to move big contracts with term. There is very little margin for error with how Dorion has locked in the team. Dorion has basically ensured that regardless of whether he is fired, the Senators team of the next 5 years will be the team that he constructed, because outside of something diabolical like trading Brady Tkachuk or Tim Stutzle, there would not be a reasonable way for a new GM to put their stamp on the team. We almost never see two legit young stars traded for each other, so the only reason Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson, Chabot, or Norris would be traded is if they aren't living up to their contracts - in which case, they would be impossible to trade. The team core you see now is locked in for the next 5 or so years, and it will be very difficult for whoever is in charge to ice anything other than Dorion's vision.
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 58
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 52
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>Sanderson is better than Chabot and Chychrun

If you went to the games, let alone watching team (not a critics comment, more of a statement); you could tell 85 was the best defender on the ice for a BAD Sens team defensively. He was also utilized in high pressure situations consistently by the end of the year and looked better than any other competitors on the team for the same role.</div></div>

People don't watch the Senators because they aren't a contender/playoff team.

People think Sanderson was a mid to late first round talent who the Senators went off the board with, because they don't pay attention to anything in the scouting community, and scout by reading comments on Reddit. The same thing happened with Brady Tkachuk.

If Sanderson was pegged for years going into the draft to be selected 1st or 2nd overall, which is where he'd likely go today in a re-draft, people would be fine with this contract.

This is a player who prior to debuting in the NHL was pegged as a blue chip defensive prospect and as close as you can get to a sure thing top pairing defenseman. Then in his first year he ascended to the point where he was the best and most important defenseman on a team that after the TDL had a strong top 4 with Chabot, Zub, and Chych. Yet, people are going bananas about him getting less than 10 percent of the cap ceiling (even less when the contract kicks in), when historically there probably isn't a defenseman who has done what he has done on his ELC who got less than 10-11 percent. Chabot is one of the few examples, and Chabot's performance in his breakout season that got him the contract was not as good as Sanderson's performance this past season.

Could this contract end up badly? Sure. Every contract has risk. But the risk of Sanderson costing more in the long run is much greater than the risk that he doesn't live up to this contract. The U26 buyout is also very cheap. Up until 2028, they can buy him out for a cap penalty of only 1.342M. That significantly lowers the risk of the contract, especially when you consider how 1.342M would look against a 90M-100M cap ceiling.
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 45
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 11 h 36
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyManiac95</b></div><div>That's a fair point. I would've gone the bridge route tho since this is based on a <strong>big if</strong>. If he doesn't light it up, then this contract looks gosh awful. But like you said, could be great if he spikes</div></div>

Even if he takes a step back, a bridge would have been 5-6M or so for 2-3 years. Then you're looking at 9M+ x 5-8 years if the cap DOESN'T go up as expected. If the cap does go up, that number will increase.

People don't understand that he won't be any cheaper on an 8 year deal, because it's not like he is some flash in the pan who came out of nowhere. He was always expected to be a top pairing defenseman. If he has a bad season, he's not going to come out and sign 6 or 7 million x 8 years, he will want a bridge deal. A long term deal at best will come in at the same amount, at worst, it will come in higher.

Cost certainty is also very important. Saving 2M or less for the next 3 years is a lot less valuable than knowing that Sanderson will never cost more than 8M for the next 9 seasons (ooops, 8.05M, sorry Chabot). Aside from Pinto and Sogaard (or whoever becomes the goalie of the future), the Senators now have their U30 core signed long term, and for better or worse they know what everybody will cost for the next 5 seasons. This is a huge advantage strategically.

People who don't watch Ottawa do not understand how good of a season he had. A lot of people also don't understand that Sanderson wasn't an off the board pick at #5. He was a riser who many teams had at that spot or higher. Ottawa had him at #4. There was a strange bias against him by fans when he was selected, because there were players there who were talked about for a longer period of time. People seem to think he was a reach.

Signing a blue chip top 5 talent defenseman to an 8 year deal after he has one of the best rookie defenseman seasons in franchise history isn't outlandish. He signed for slightly less (cap hit percentage wise) that most historical comparisons signed at. He also did not get front-loaded money, signing bonuses, or strong trade protection (10-team list is nothing).
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 1 h 31
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rangsey</b></div><div>Valid but Karlsson, Doughty Pietro were signed a long time ago.

Deals for Makar and Fox would have lowered the Dahlin deal. Now this one comes along and regard of UFA/RFA status LHD in the NHL can expect to get paid more than they would have yesterday.</div></div>

Makar signed coming right off his ELC. He has 4 RFA years in the deal, Dahlin only has 1. Had Makar signed a bridge like Dahlin, and played out his remaining RFA years, he also would be in the 10-12 million range.

Fox also didn't bridge. His deal has 4 RFA years in it.

That is why they aren't entirely comparable. Dahlin's contract was basically a UFA contract since it only had 1 (arb) RFA year in it.

Werenski, Jones, McAvoy, Nurse, etc - those players are all north of 9M and at a similar age bracket to Dahlin. They all signed for north of 9 on contracts that either entirely or almost entirely buy up UFA years. The Dahlin deal makes sense in the context of those deals.

The Sanderson deal does nothing to push forward or change how young defensemen are dealt with. If a player is a top pairing defenseman on their ELC, and they sign 7-8 years, they get 10-11 percent of the cap. Sanderson is considered to be a blue chip defense prospect who was just the best defender on his team as a rookie, and played top pairing minutes with difficult assignments. The only thing that is peculiar about this contract is Sanderson getting it after 1 season instead of 2, but that is not enough to dictate that it has somehow reset or changed the market.

If Buffalo is negotiating with Owen Power, it's not like they were about to sign him for 7.5 x 8 and now they are going, WAIT A MINUTE SANDERSON GOT 8...and then someone butts in and goes "Excuse me sir, it was actually 8.05!" - They likely already know that Power is going to get anywhere from 8.2M-9.2M (on 7-8 years), because that is what all the historical comparisons would put him at, and Sanderson's contract did nothing to alter those comparisons. Power is seen as the better player, and was seen as the more coveted prospect, so he's already lined up to get more.
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 1 h 3
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MatthewsFan</b></div><div>Gotta ask, why did OTT trade for Jakob Chychrun. Are they planning on paying 3 LD over 7+ million.</div></div>

Ottawa needed another top 4 defenseman. Chychrun had term on a great contract, and had local ties. He can play both sides so handedness is less relevant. None of the three have strong trade protection, so it isn't as though they couldn't make a change if they felt they needed to move someone out. Chychrun is also a local boy, who seems to be excited to play for Ottawa. Similar to how Debrincat signed a soft contract to go to Detroit, Ottawa might be able to convince Chychrun to take a little bit less because he wants to be in Ottawa.

The cap is also projected to go up by a large amount. Capfriendly has it set at 92 million for the year a Chychrun extension would kick in. Chabot and Sanderson at 8M under a 92M cap would be like having them at 7.25M under the current 83.5M cap. If they can convince Chychrun to take a hometown discount and come in at somewhere around 8 million, that's doable.

I could also see them possibly trading Chabot at one point before the rest of the league realize he is shell-shocked from being made to play 30 minutes a game on a budget Ottawa Senators team for many years. The thing is, they really don't have any good prospects on defense, so I can't seem them doing that unless there is a deal to bring in another top 4 defenseman from somewhere else. Unless someone breaks out unexpectedly, they don't have anybody in the system who could fill a top 4 spot internally.
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 55
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 46
Forum: NHL Signings7 sept. 2023 à 0 h 42
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals31 août 2023 à 12 h 2
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals30 août 2023 à 10 h 48
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bwhsocal</b></div><div>like the thinking (unlike every TML proposal) but 2 problems - joseph is 9.3m real cash over 3 years, a lot cheaper are the 2 LTIR and the only Fs that dont need to clear waivers are cooley and guenther, doubt they drop one to bring in joseph.
unfortunately for OTT Kubalik is better option (I imagine youd want to keep him) but he is on last year (can TDL) and about same cap hit way and more attractive, 31 GMs know OTT is a bind no cap space and really need to sign Pinto.

think the cap max in training camp is 110%-cant take both to LTIR prolly only Voracek works-which AZ can LRIT little easily if needed</div></div>

My theory is that Ottawa and Pinto have already agreed on a contract. Either 1 year at 1M or 2 years at 2M (give or take a few 100k in either direction). They are waiting to see how much cap space Ottawa can generate before signing it. They will sign it before training camp opens. The Senators and Pierre Dorion negotiate big time through the media (see the Garrioch articles when they were having trouble with Debrincat). If there were problems with Pinto, we would know. Similar to how we knew there were problems with Brady Tkachuk when he held out.

With the above said, moving Kubalik or Brannstrom probably isn't enough. It would only allow the Senators to either sign Pinto to a 1 year deal or roll with a 21 player roster, which is too dysfunctional. It's fine for a contender who can coast through the regular season to do the 21 player thing, but for a young team who still needs to prove themselves, it's a huge handicap.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals29 août 2023 à 16 h 12
Forum: Armchair-GM29 août 2023 à 16 h 5
I have been playing around with the roster to try and figure out ways to max out the 83.5M with LTIR. I didn't realize this auto-saved my changes.

Sending Forsberg down was the original idea, but the Senators could also simply set a 22 player roster and probably get within 100k of the cap ceiling without having to waive anybody who they wouldn't waive anyways. The big problem with that is that 100k could end up as a big deal with LTIR. For example, let's say they play a player who makes 775k on LTIR and need to call up a new body. Squeezing out an extra 100k would allow them more options. Otherwise, they have to recall someone making league minimum.

A loophole, which other teams have used, is to sign a player to a 2-way contract with the exact cap hit needed to hit 83.5M. If I recall, Tampa Bay did this. The idea is that the player is going to stay on the AHL team all year, but they get assigned to the NHL roster for opening night instead of the player who actually made the team. So lets say Kelly Parker earned the final forward spot, but at 762.5K, it would leave the Senators 20k short of hitting the cap ceiling before placing their injured players on LTIR. They would sign a veteran pro to a 2-way contract with an NHL salary of 782.5k. Assign them to the opening night roster instead of Kelly. Then when they are legally able to, they send the AHLer down and recall Kelly. Of course, Kelly could be claimed on waivers, but that's a low risk proposition.

If I recall, the NHL has certain rules in place about how long a team must wait before changing the opening night roster, but in a situation like this, the 13th forward being different won't matter much.
Forum: Armchair-GM26 août 2023 à 11 h 24
-The Senators intend to run a 22 player roster with Forsberg as the backup goalie. But to get there they need to first assign Forsberg to the minors in order to max out LTIR.
-Forsberg will start the season in the minors for cap reasons related to LTIR. Sending Forsberg down allows the Senators to get back 1.125M in cap space because Forsberg's contract exceeds the threshold for buried players. Forsberg is very unlikely to be claimed due to his previous injury, his outstanding term, and how little cap space there is to go around in the league. (Alternatively, they could keep Forsberg in the NHL and use Brannstrom as the body to send down temporarily, but I think Brannstrom would be more likely to get claimed.)
-Currie and Mandolese are also not going to stay on the roster. They are only there to max out the Senators cap hit so that when they place Voracek and Little on LTIR, they are as close as possible to the 83.5M ceiling.
-Pinto will sign a 2 year 1.8M AAV contract. Lafreniere is a comparable. Lafreniere has played 3 full pro seasons and averaged close to 20 goals. Lafreniere is also a much bigger name as a former 1st overall pick. Pinto has 1 pro season and is a 10.2(c) RFA, which gives him very little negotiating power. A 1.8M AAV contract on a 2 year deal seems in line with other comparable contracts. It would bridge Pinto to arbitration and give the Senators some breathing room before having to sign him.
-Note that the lines and D pairings aren't meant to reflect who will play with who. It's only meant to reflect who will be on the roster for cap reasons. I will not guess what lines the Senators will use.
-After opening night when the Senators can send down Currie and Mandolese, and recall Forsberg, they will have a 22 player roster with 407k of cap space. They will be in LTI for the entire season so that cap space will not accrue towards the trade deadline.


The Joseph to Arizona trade makes sense because Arizona is a budget team who are trying to win hockey games. Little and Voracek cost them a similar salary to what they would pay Joseph. Ottawa is no longer a budget team. They are going to be right at the ceiling of the cap, so going into LTI has less ramifications for them. Moving Joseph with a 2nd to acquire Voracek and Little and place them on LTIR means that the Senators can run with a 22 player roster and have enough cap space to sign Pinto to a 2 year deal at what should be market value for a 10.2(c) RFA with the resume of Pinto. Lafreniere has a stronger resume, wasn't a 10.2(c) RFA, and he only got slightly more than what I am proposing for Pinto. As far as Joseph's term is concerned, Arizona could ride him out for a season and if he doesn't work out, attaching a 2nd round pick to him should be enough to dump his remaining 2 years of term. Additionally, Ottawa could consider retaining up to 400k on Joseph while still making this roster work, but I think they would be reticent to retain due to his term.
Forum: NHL Signings23 août 2023 à 17 h 15
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals23 août 2023 à 16 h 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Meh. I think Ottawa does better just moving Joseph out for picks</div></div>

No one will give up picks for Joseph. He is underperforming and has too much term at his cap hit.

The point of this trade is that Winnipeg gets the better roster players in the swap, they get term with Joseph, which benefits them since his cap hit is subsidized by dumping another bottom 6 forward in Appleton. Term is good for the Jets in this scenario because they have a difficult time attracting NHL veterans to Winnipeg.

For the Senators, it's entirely about cap balance. Joseph for Appleton and Brannstrom for Stanley is not going to change anything for them next year because those players will play such a minimal role, but it will help them clear space to sign Pinto and dress 22-23 players.

Sokolov is clearly at a disagreement with the team since it's unusual for an RFA of his calibre not to be signed. It's a small hit of added value for Winnipeg.

Keep in mind, this is just the basis for a deal. If the idea is the Senators need to throw in a 2nd round pick or something because they are the ones getting cap space, that doesn't really change the trade much.

I think ultimately the deal we see Ottawa make will be some sort of hockey trade like this. I think dumping Joseph completely will be too difficult. It will be something built around Joseph and maybe Brannstrom out for slightly cheaper roster players who also aren't great.