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budgeteam

couldnt afford 2nd t
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Sénateurs d'Ottawa
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Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2023 à 16 h 28
Sujet: Dorion Gets Creative
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>xercuses</b></div><div>But the yotes want them to get to that cap floor so they wont trade then regardless of salary owed</div></div>

The Coyotes are well above the cap floor without those two contracts. They don't need them. They would be at about 67M after that trade.

The Coyotes have a mandate to compete this season. They are still a budget team, but they are no longer leveraging their cap space to accrue assets. They want to leverage it to ice the best possible roster. While Brannstrom is done as a top prospect, he's still a solid #5 who can play 18 minutes a night and has upside to possibly become a second pair D, or QB one of the two PP units in Arizona while playing on the bottom pair at ES. Given that they would gain salary space in the transaction by dumping two contracts for players that won't play for them, it seems sensible.
Forum: Armchair-GM20 sept. 2023 à 16 h 22
Sujet: Dorion Gets Creative
The point of this 21 player roster is to get the Senators temporarily up to as close to 83.5M as possible before placing Voracek and Little on LTIR. Ignore the actual line combos, I don't intend to decide who will play where.

1 - The Senators trade Brannstrom to Arizona. Ideally, the Senators could trade Brannstrom somewhere for a late pick and keep it simple, but I don't think there would be a market for that. The idea behind the trade is that the Senators take two insured LTIR contracts from the Coyotes, which makes Brannstrom a cash in/cash out acquisition. Soderstrom does come back to Ottawa, but he is not integral to the trade. It can be a different depth defender, or no defender at all with a mid-to-late draft pick instead, with the Senators raiding PTOs for a defenseman. The entire point of the trade is to get rid of Brannstrom's cap hit in exchange for LTIR contracts. Given how close the Senators will be to the cap ceiling, there are less consequences to going into LTIR since they will have so little cap space to bank going into the deadline anyways.

2 - Joseph will be sent to the minors. The Senators need the 1.125M in cap relief and he played his way off the team last year.

3 - Forsberg will start in the minors. He is very unlikely to be claimed because of his term, cap hit, and injury history. This will give Forsberg starting time in Belleville to get his game back on point after suffering a double-knee injury last year. It is also essential in order to free up cap space for Pinto. The difference between Sogaard and Forsberg is 200k. If Forsberg is claimed, that isn't the worst problem to have since Sogaard is ready to play 20-30 NHL games a year, but he almost certainly won't be claimed.

4 - I opted to send down Kelly (waiver eligible) and Soderstrom (waiver-exempt), and recall Jarventie (waiver-exempt). The purpose being that gets the Senators within a few hundred dollars of the cap ceiling so that when they place Voracek and Little on LTIR, they get the highest possible cap ceiling under LTIR. They can then send Jarventie back down and recall Soderstrom, or do whatever other tweaks they need to do.

5 - Depending on who makes the team in each depth spot, they may have to place different depth players on the opening night lineup to maximize LTIR.
Forum: NHL Signings19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 21
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Egor Sokolov (1 Year / $775,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CSStrowbridge</b></div><div>This is a good deal, even if he doesn't play another NHL game ever. He's great in the AHL and that helps your prospects develop in a winning atmosphere. If he is anything more than just an injury call-up, then it is a massive win.

On the other hand, they have $120,000 in cap space and they NEED to sign at least one more player. They need to dump cap space and there's very few teams that can help them out.</div></div>

The Senators would benefit immensely from opening up cap space, but they may not need to dump cap space to sign Pinto and become compliant. They currently have a 21 player roster with 121k of cap space. Capfriendly shows 19/23, but that is because they don't count the IR bodies (but they still count towards the cap). Activating Norris and Forsberg brings them up to 21 without changing the cap situation.

The worst case scenario plan is likely to waive both Brannstrom and Joseph. Both will clear. That will bring give the Senators approx. 2.371M in cap space with a 19 player roster. While Pinto apparently wants 2.5M x 2, Frost and Lafreniere both signed for less than 2.5M. It isn't unrealistic to thin that the Senators might be able to get Pinto down to 2.371M or a bit less.

That would put the Senators at a worst case scenario where they will run with no healthy scratches until an eventual major injury to a consequential player allows them to raise their cap ceiling via LTIR and recall a few additional players because for example if the player hurt has a 2M cap hit, that's enough to recall 2 2-way players instead of 1.

If there is a trade market for Brannstrom, they would open up enough to roll with a 21 player roster, but it isn't guaranteed that anybody will take Brannstrom at 2M. Very few teams have cap space, and he isn't exactly a blue chip prospect at this point. I think it is more likely that Brannstrom ends up on waivers and clears, and combined with Joseph clearing, they use that to open up the cap space needed to fit Pinto in.

Forsberg would be an alternate option to waive instead of Brannstrom, and it night make sense given the kind of injury Forsberg is coming back from. Give Sogaard some more NHL experience as the #2, and allow Forsberg to start games in the AHL in order to get back to top shape. Forsberg would almost certainly clear due to his cap hit, term, and the injury he just sustained. Only a handful of teams could claim him cap wise.
Forum: NHL Signings19 sept. 2023 à 19 h 7
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Egor Sokolov (1 Year / $775,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Took them 3+ months to sign a League Minimum contract for a fringe NHL player? Interesting</div></div>

It's probably a case where he either pushed for a 1-way deal, or a trade, and he wasn't able to get it.

On the topic of him signing for below his QO, we have seen players take league-minimum before in order to increase their chances of remaining in the NHL. The Senators are going to be right against the cap to the point where a player who makes 775k may get the 12th or 13th forward spot over a more preferable player who makes a few hundred thousand more because they simply may not have an extra 100k-300k to spend on their 21st body. It's pretty clear that they will run with a 21 player roster if there is no other trade.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals18 sept. 2023 à 15 h 37
Sujet: Twitter Rumour Batherson 4 Laughton trade proposal variations
The purpose of this thread is more to discuss the rumour of a Batherson/Laughton swap, and what the additional pieces might look like on either side. Not to advocate for it.

The Elliotte Friedman of questionable Senators Twitter insiders has reported he has heard that the Senators are offering up a different young player than Pinto for Laughton. This would clear cap space and allow the Senators to re-sign Pinto for more than a year. There is speculation that it could be Batherson.

Batherson is coming off of a bad season. He was injured in 2022, and claimed that he didn't feel 100 percent until close to the end of the 2023 season. Prior to getting hurt in 2022, he was by far the Senators best forward. He is a late bloomer who has taken time to get going at every level, but goes on to dominate. He is not someone I would trade.

I think if the Senators move Batherson for Laughton, it would have to be part of a bigger trade with another scoring winger coming back, possibly Tippett. Moving out Batherson without another right-handed scorer coming back into the fold would cause a major imbalance in the lineup.

Something like Batherson/ and Joseph or Kubalik for Laughton/Tippett with the Senators adding additional picks/prospects if it is Joseph would be how I would see it structured.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals18 sept. 2023 à 15 h 23
Sujet: Zibanejad For Brassard 2 point Oh Clean and simple Pinto trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GDubb2Shiesty</b></div><div>just wondering why it'll cost so much to dump joseph when he's a 26 year old quick playing 3rd line winger. This seems like a steep price to pay to dump him when imo he has/had more value than then zaitsev and it costed a 2nd and fourth. Im sure the sens can find a trade partner like ARZ, CHI or ANA that could make use of him and not cost us as much.</div></div>

Term+timing.

It is the worst possible time to dump a contract. It is easier to dump a contract early in the off season while teams still have cap flexibility, or at the trade deadline when some teams who know they are out of it can take on moving parts.

Going by Capfriendly's charts, there are only 8 teams with 3M+ of open cap space. Out of those 8 teams, a few like Arizona might be budget teams, which eliminates them. While this might not be entirely accurate with rosters not set yet, it still shows how few places there are to dump contracts.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals18 sept. 2023 à 10 h 44
Sujet: Zibanejad For Brassard 2 point Oh Clean and simple Pinto trade
No getting cute over-thinking it with additional pieces.

-Pinto is worth more than Laughton.
-A 2nd+Pinto's excess value covers dumping Joseph.
-Flyers are also incentivized to take Joseph, because otherwise, this trade cannot happen due to Ottawa's cap situation.

Ottawa can only afford to sign Pinto to a 1 year deal, which might come in at 1M give or take. They cannot afford cap wise to go 2-3 years, which will take 2.5-3.5 million. To do that, they need to dump Joseph. Dumping Joseph independent of a bigger trade would cost too much in assets.

Additionally, you have to understand that two factors:
1 - Ottawa's window is the next 4-5 seasons while everybody is cost controlled. In 4-5 years, the raises and extensions for Tkachuk and Chabot start kicking in.
2 - Dorion needs to win now to keep his job.

If Dorion signs Pinto to a 1 year contract instead of acquiring Laughton, 2 things happen:
1 - He gets the worse centre this year. This lowers the chances of the team winning in the short term, and Dorion keeping his job.
2 - He has to trade Pinto next year anyways, because he will be eligible for an offer sheet, and if Dorion plans to keep Tarasenko, there will be no room to pay Pinto.

That is very similar to the Zibanejad scenario. Brassard was perceived to be a short-term upgrade who was cost controlled (Salary, not cap, Ottawa was a budget team). Dorion knew his window to win was the next 2-3 seasons while Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, etc were all cost controlled. He did not care if Zibanejad would be the better player 4 or 5 years down the line. It was a win now move.

Laughton will be cost controlled for 3 seasons, and will be an upgrade on Pinto for at least next year - the return will also be an upgrade on what the Senators might get trading from a position of weakness next year if Pinto goes one year.

I would personally just attach a 1st to Joseph to dump him somewhere, avoid re-signing Tarasenko, and commit to Pinto long-term, but I don't think that is Dorion;s play here. He likely doesn't want to give up another major asset to dump a contract. He will acquire Laughton and justify it as being a big-boy win-now move because other championship teams that may have been Colorado or St.Louis also wanted Laughton.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals17 sept. 2023 à 19 h 55
Sujet: Dorions Wet Dream
Ottawa cannot do this cap wise. If they had a net 2.5M in cap (difference between Joseph and Konecny), they wouldn't have to shop Pinto. They could likely sign him to a 2 year deal at 2.5M or less.

The issue with Pinto is probably that Ottawa can only afford to sign him to a 1 year deal, which means if they want to retain other pieces, they will have to trade Pinto next year anyways. It's why Laughton makes sense as a prediction, because he is better than Pinto as the 3C in the short-term and he is cap controlled for multiple years at below market value. So the Sens would look at it like there is no way to keep Pinto long term so they might as well make the team better over the next 1-3 years, even if it comes at the expense of giving PHI or whoever a solid 2C for the next decade. It's basically Brassard for Zibanajed 2.0. (Although, I don't think anybody expected Zibanejad to become as good as he did, not even the Rangers.)
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals17 sept. 2023 à 19 h 50
Sujet: Ott - Phi Sens pushing chips into the middle
Tippett is coming off of a good season. I don't think his value is as high as people think, because he struggled so much on Florida. I think he would need to prove he is the real deal by repeating it.

With that said, I don't see why he would be included in this trade. It would be either Tippett or Laughton, not both. Brannstrom doesn't have much value. Pinto has more value than Tippett or Laughton, but he isn't worth both of them PLUS Philadelphia taking Joseph. Brannstrom isn't enough to bridge that gap.

It also doesn't make much sense with Ottawa's lineup. There won't be a spot for Tippett in the top 6 at ES, and there may not be a spot for him on either PP unit. In Philadelphia, he got big PP minutes last year and had a major role. Ottawa already has Batherson and Giroux on the right side at even strength in the top six.

Lastly, if Tippett scores close to 30 goals again he's getting at minimum 5M on a shorter term deal. Ottawa likely wants to try to retain Tarasenko based on Dorion originally offering him a long term deal, there won't be cap space to pay Tippett. Tippett is unlikely to score that much in Ottawa due to the same role as he has in Philadelphia not being available to him, which again means including him in the trade would be pointless value wise. Laughton makes more sense because he can be a defensive center.
Forum: NHL Signings11 sept. 2023 à 16 h 5
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
You can't really compare Ottawa and Toronto's contracts in the future because they are apples and oranges. Ottawa is where Toronto was 5 or so years ago when Toronto signed all the young players they acquired in their rebuild to RFA contracts. The Tavares contract, along with the upcoming extensions to Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are all UFA contracts. Of course they are going to be more expensive than RFA contracts signed on ELCs.

The window for most teams to win is when their stars are on RFA deals. Ottawa is going to be in a better position than Toronto to load up over the next 3-5 years because the core will be underpaid and the cap will theoretically go up. As much as I hate Toronto, they were one of the teams hurt the most by the timing of COVID and the flat cap. They should have had a 2-3 year period where the cap was 88.5-100 million and they still had Matthews and co. under their RFA cap hits. They would have been able to go all in. Instead, they had to make consolations to account for the flat cap. Yes, other teams also had to do the same thing, but you can still measure which teams were hurt the most based on where they were in their build. Toronto was at the worst possible stage to be hit with a flat cap.
Forum: NHL Signings11 sept. 2023 à 16 h 0
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Jake Sanderson (8 Years / $8,050,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pete</b></div><div>This's going to end bad for Ottawa. High risk, high reward signing would be for max. $4M. Jake is a really good player but this may break his work ethic completely.</div></div>

He did not get front-loaded money or signing bonuses. This means that he could lose 66 percent of his contract if he is bought out anytime in the next 4 years (before the age of 26). So while I agree with you that some players do coast once they get paid, the Senators can get out of most of this contract if he is bad.

Look what happened to Colin White. Even accounting for the 1.2M Florida paid him, he so far has lost 9.3 million dollars, and it doesn't look like he is going to make much of that back at this point.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals10 sept. 2023 à 22 h 38
Sujet: Pinto2nd for LaughtonCap Considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>penguinswin</b></div><div>True story....43 points last season is a career high. And he has never scored 20G in a season...and his injury history is way worse than Pinto's - although Shane is trying to give him a run for his money on the injury front....

I would take Pinto in a heartbeat over Laughton, and roll the dice on his shoulder holding up...Briere should have have some serious remorse if he TRUTHFULLY (not this "rumored" crap) turned down even one 1st round pick for Laughton</div></div>

If they were actually offered 2 first round picks, it was likely a situation like Colorado or St.Louis, where the picks were right at the end of the round. That would still be an inflated return, but it's not as insane as it sounds. Consider how coveted the style of game he plays is, and the fact that he is cost controlled for 3 more seasons at only 3M. As a free agent, he'd likely get 4.5M or more.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals10 sept. 2023 à 22 h 34
Sujet: Pinto2nd for LaughtonCap Considerations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoxNix</b></div><div>Pinto's massive breakout for a whole 35 points last year and extensive injury history make that clearly obvious.

Ok, enough sarcasm. Pinto's youth and lower cost probably do make him worth slightly more but not enough to offset Philly taking on Joseph and Brannstrom. And no the 2nd doesn't make up for that either.</div></div>

Pinto is worth more than two late 1st round picks.

He does not have an extensive injury history. He missed one season with a shoulder injury. I don't recall him having any major injuries or red flags during college. He bounced back fine from the shoulder injury and was healthy last season.

He is an exceptional two-way center who is great on faceoffs and scored 20 goals as a rookie. Laughton is the better player right now, but Pinto is only scratching the surface. Laughton is underpaid for the next 3 seasons, but Pinto has more team control at 5 more years as an RFA and could likely be signed to a deal that in a year or two will look better than the Laughton one.

This would not be a deal I would want to see the Senators make, it's the type of deal I could see them looking for if they feel that the salary cap will make it difficult to keep Pinto on anything other than a 1 year deal. The problem with a 1 year deal this season is that it sets them up to lose Pinto anyways next season if they want to prioritize keeping Tarasenko (which Dorion likely does since he originally offered him a long term deal). I think Dorion's ideal move is to dump Joseph and sign Pinto to a 2-3 year bridge deal that will cost control him until the cap rises. If that isn't possible because the cost to move Joseph independent of including him in a Pinto deal is too high, then maybe they will bundle both of them and trade for a cost controlled replacement for Pinto. That is what this proposal is.
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals10 sept. 2023 à 21 h 2
Sujet: Pinto2nd for LaughtonCap Considerations
The Senators were rumoured to be interested in Laughton sometime around the draft.

The Flyers apparently turned down two late 1st round picks, or the equivalent to that.

This trade is basically Zibanejad for Brassard 2.0. There is pressure for the Senators to make the playoffs and compete. Laughton is the better player than Pinto right now and is cost controlled at a low cap hit relative to what he brings. In the case of Brassard, it was salary.

The Senators add in a 2nd, partly for cap considerations with Joseph going to PHI. Brannstrom is neutral/low value.

Not a trade I would make, but I could see Dorion doing something like this if his only other option under the cap is to sign Pinto to a 1 year contract that will guarantee they lose Pinto next year as he might be in a position to ask for top 6 money if he has another strong season.

An alternative would be to bring Boston into the deal and make it a 3-way trade with Boston sending a cap dump like Grzelcyk to the Flyers, along with picks/prospects that the Flyers might prefer over Pinto.