SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Yeti34

Yeti
Membre depuis
9 avr. 2020
Équipe favorite
Maple Leafs de Toronto
Messages dans les forums
101
Messages par jour
0.1
Forum: Armchair-GM18 mai 2020 à 21 h 56
Sujet: Nylander trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jco5ta5</b></div><div>where can i find these pick charts?</div></div>

This is one based on the pure value: <a href="http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf</a>
This one shows average value: <a href="https://bluebulletreport.com/2019/06/05/2018-19-draft-model-update-part-iii-blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://bluebulletreport.com/2019/06/05/2018-19-draft-model-update-part-iii-blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/</a>

I can't share my google doc where I did my own but here's a copy and paste from another comment referring to defensemen in case we end up picking Drysdale at 4OA:

"Larsson (T4)
Murray (T4)
Reinhart (B)
Reilly (T4) (E)
Jones (T4) (E)
Hanifin (T4)
Juolevi (B)
Makar (T4) (E) (M)
Heiskanen (T4) (E) (M)

Top 4 D (T4): 7/9= 0.77%
Elite/Top Pairing DMen: 4/9: 0.44%
Marner-level DMen: 2/9: 0.22%

Concluding: Very few Defensive prospects are considered good enough to get drafted top-5. When a D-Man is drafted in the top-5 it is usually for his QB abilities or mature game. Between 5-15 there is a higher likelihood of an Elite DMan, but Drysdale safely falls into the top-5 category."

Assuming Nylander is equivalent to a top-4 RHD then theres a 77% chance we get a fairly equal player and a 44% we get something better. (Data is non-exclusive)

Sorry I can't find mine for forwards but take my word on it it is signifigantly better with a 80-90% depending on the draft they become 2nd line or fringe first line (Nylander is better then that imo) and around a 50% they become an elite player. I reccomend you do your own to see for yourself. It's pretty eye-opening to how often we over high-end draft picks.

I can write out another pick chart in a format I can paste into a comment if you want.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 avr. 2020 à 23 h 12
Sujet: Barkov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>I think they're going to have to move one of the big 4 and to me moving Nylander and his cap space isn't enough, needs to be one of the $10M+ guys.
I thought maybe they could make it work but not anymore, someone has to go, the Tavares signing was a huge mistake.</div></div>

Matthews and tavares are the logical to stay as its hard to find talented centers like them. Marner can pp, pk, skate like a rocket so he probs stays, nylander seems like the choice. Sure he is a goal scorer and can pp really well. But if this team wants to improve the defense he may be the one to go. After all his contract is the easiest to move out and more teams will be willing to trade for him. If not than the 2nd option would be marner but its gonna be harder to do so