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Windjammer

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22 juill. 2020
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Jets de Winnipeg
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Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 16 h 59
Sujet: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shanesaw9</b></div><div>I'm not disputing the Perfetti trade, just the logic that Barron is worth a 3rd (even to WPG).

Ironically, I really like Kovacevic (again minority compared to most habs fans). He's got size, he is a reliable bottom pair guy, and he is a good penalty killer. I am even open to possibly keeping Kovacevic over Barron depending on how things fall into place next season... if Mailloux and Reinbacher progress as expected Barron likely becomes trade bait. For now, Barron has more potential upside (than Kovacevic) so I wouldn't pull the trigger yet.

For reference I checked out WPG's draft history from 2020 to 2011.

2nd Round Picks (5/8 = 62.5%)
- Petan, Gustaffson, Samberg, Harkins, Comrie

I would argue Barron is better than all of those players aside from maybe Samberg whom I would say they are on par with one another.

3rd round picks (2/10 = 20%)
- Lowry, Kovacevic

Lowry was a home run for them in the 3rd round and clearly more valuable than Barron. Kovacevic is arguably on par with Barron but a lower ceiling, time will tell.

Just going off that I think it's fair to say Barron is for sure worth a 2nd round pick. I would argue more because I personally think he has a better than 62.5% chance of having a long NHL career, one that is better than the fringe guys like Harkins, Petan etc.</div></div>

Okay, I see where you're going. The value of a player of Barron's level is very subjective and will vary a fair amount depending on the team he's offered to.

Overall, I don't think we're that far apart in our opinions as the difference between a 2nd and a 3rd isn't a lot when you factor in where they actually fall in the round and how far in the future they are.

So, I respect your opinion on that as our difference is most likely that you like the player while I'm indifferent on him.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 16 h 41
Sujet: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shanesaw9</b></div><div>That's just silly though, you think MTL would take a 3rd for him? Obviously not so his value is greater than a 3rd.

When you say Barron is worth a 3rd round pick you need to specify WPG would only offer a 3rd round pick, because those are two different things.

But a question for you:
1. What are the odds of WPG's 3rd round pick making the NHL?
2. What are the odds of Barron making WPG's roster next season?

I believe the odds of option 2 are significantly higher than option 1.</div></div>

sure the odds are higher, but not high enough to justify moving a young top 6 forward coming off a 19 goal season.

I did say someone might offer a 2nd for him, but most teams have players that are close, but can't crack the team and almost all of those guys aren't returning a 2nd. Barron is basically a Kovacevic (yes, I know he's older) and the Jets got nothing for him.

I think Montreal likely would trade him for a 3rd, unless they are sure he is making the team next season. Because if he doesn't, he's lost on waivers at some point.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 16 h 29
Sujet: Perfetti
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Shanesaw9</b></div><div>This is where there is a huge discrepancy in value for us. In what world is Barron worth a 3rd round pick? 3rd round picks are busts all the time, Barron already has 94 career NHL games at 22 years old and he is currently 25th in his draft class for points (despite being a defenseman). Like c'mon, whoever you draft in the 3rd round isn't going to be as good as Barron, whoever you draft in the 2nd round probably won't be as good as Barron either. I think less than 50% of 2nd round picks even become NHL players?

You're either undervaluing Barron or overvaluing draft picks, perhaps both. This offer is right in line with the price for Newhook.</div></div>

The thing that brings Barron's value down is waiver eligibility. Just because a player was worth a 2nd at one point, doesn't mean he's worth a 2nd forever.

He needs to clear waivers next season, so if he doesn't clearly make the team out of training camp, you lose him on waivers. Someone who is desperate for a bottom pairing defenseman may give you a 2nd for him, penciling him in on the bottom pair, but unlikely a team that isn't sure where he will fit, does that. Bottom pairing defenseman are plentiful and cheap in trades or as UFA's.

Barron simply isn't a clear upgrade on anything Winnipeg currently has in house, so he's not worth pursuing.

If you want to move him for a 3rd, the Jets could take a look. If you want Perfetti, you'd need to offer a comparably aged, comparably skilled player that fills a need for the Jets.

Pure futures or bits and bobs don't do it.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 15 h 0
Sujet: Best Case Scenario
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>brady_t12</b></div><div>I hear you, just don't know what else the caps have that they're willing to give up that fits that. Iorio can play in the NHL right now - he looked solid in the limited minutes he played at the end of the season - but he's stuck behind Carlson, Jensen, TVR, and Bear on the depth chart. He's going to be a good middle pair defenseman, but he can already hold his own on the bottom pair. I think a full year in the NHL next season would be great for him, just don't think he's gonna get that in DC. If Winnipeg sees Iorio as a young right-now piece, maybe the trade works? But if the Jets want a forward, it's tough to find something that fits the bill you described from the caps.</div></div>

Yeah, that's the key. If the Jets scouts like Iorio and think he's ready to play full time in the NHL or is very close to that, then I could see the deal working for sure as he does fill a positional need.
Forum: Armchair-GMlun. à 14 h 29