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TheCelt

Math and Sports
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25 mai 2018
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Jets de Winnipeg
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Forum: Armchair-GM1 févr. 2019 à 14 h 28
Sujet: Stone in Connor out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheCelt</b></div><div>Aside from the cap going up, you're also discounting the amount of money in bonuses we have all those guys get off their ELCs. Niku, Rosy, and Apples might get raises in terms of the money they get for showing up, but it won't be that much of raise from what they count against the cap right now.

Part of being a great GM is finding underrated players to have contribute for less money than the value they provide. Josh Morrissey has all the signs of that kind of player. He is a top pairing d-man with a partner who is optically more appealing, and his numbers are good but nothing special for the role he plays. Combine that with the chronic underratedness of defense in the NHL, and Morrissey's long term deal should hopefully be the best slam dunk since signing Ehlers. It is not an exaggeration that Morrissey could be for us what Roman Josi is to Nashville in terms of underrated.

Also because there is no way that Apples and Rosy get long term deals, all we need is to hold out till comes off the book, and Little gets 'Seattled' (you heard it here first)</div></div>

Haha...yes...The jets will have roughly 10M to spare next year and 4-5M will go to Morrissey and the other players need to eat the rest...Thats why Laine cant get the 9.5/10M yet...

Plus we have good chats regarding these different Jets teams...:)
Forum: Armchair-GM30 janv. 2019 à 13 h 54
Forum: Armchair-GM30 janv. 2019 à 10 h 7
Sujet: Laine Offer Sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheCelt</b></div><div>He's a lot more mediocre playing with Little. You have a 5v5 54% shot differential player in Little and a 5v5 49% shot differential player in Laine combining to be a 46% differential. If one of the primary goals of your center is to elevate his wings than I would pin more of this weird season on Little than Laine.

Laine has played with three centers on for more than a couple games in his career Little, Statsny, and Scheifele. With two of those numbers he puts up respectable shot differential numbers. As far as salary, I'll go a little bit less than 10-11M. The important precedents are Tarasenko, Eichel, and depending on when they sign Marner and Matthews. It's gonna be hard giving 10-11M to a winger regardless of goals.</div></div>

I can see between 8.75 and 9.25 over 6-8 years
Forum: Armchair-GM17 déc. 2018 à 20 h 26
Sujet: Jets 29
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheCelt</b></div><div>That was the story in 2013 when he held out. Times have changed and Detroit is a shell of what they used to be. If you actually have any idea what Trouba wants and actually have a valid source for it, then share by all means. There are a lot of people in the NHL who are interested in knowing what's going on in that dude's head.</div></div>

Nothing concrete, But my sister lives near Trouba's parents in Auburn Hills, Michigan. And my Nephew runs a bar there that Trouba frequents quite often. And there's talk from what they're telling me that he wants to come home. But once again it's mere speculation on their part. Until Trouba definitely decides in the next couple of year. No one truly know's what's in his head.
Forum: Armchair-GM2 juill. 2018 à 12 h 41
Sujet: If I'm winning, what do i need this summer to win a Cup - comment!!!!!!!!!!!!
<a href="/users/TheCelt" target="_blank">@TheCelt</a> I guess that since the Stastny signing didn't come to fruition, you're concepts seem to be a good option for the Jets. At this point, I can't see Little leaving - he is under rated, as we have said, and I think he is going to have a better year this season, and at this point we need a little bit more veteran depth in the middle and he could even slide over to wing for a different look depending on who the Jets are able to add. Mason is gone now, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of back-up the Jets will go after. And Armia is gone (unfortunately) so I'm guessing that Tanev will become a regular on the fourth line, which in my mind is a big downgrade defensively. Would've been nice to add Stast, but not for 6.5. Would have preferred to keep Armia and Mason's salary if we weren't for sure gonna get Stast, also, but here we are with a lot of cap space to do something with and a ton of other teams in the west adding very good players (Stastny, Neal, O'Reilly) so I think Chevy will be forced into doing something substantial in order to keep the foot on the gas. Complacency is a killer, so if we do nothing, we can't expect to be as good as last year. Need at least a few new faces.

Also, thank you very much for the details about Development camp - I am very pleased to hear that Stanley is looking the part and that Appleton comes as advertised. I was trying to follow along on twitter but found it difficult to find actual details on player performance.
Forum: Armchair-GM27 juin 2018 à 10 h 35
Forum: Armchair-GM19 juin 2018 à 20 h 22
Sujet: an idea from logan ollivier
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheCelt</b></div><div>I can respect that. Myers was our 2RHD behind Buff last year while Trouba was still developing. I think you guys would definitely benefit from him. I have a little more trouble seeing Stats' role in the Leafs future. Unless you plan on paying him 5+mill to play 3C you guys seem pretty set with Kadri as one of the biggest bargain contracts in the NHL right now.

Right now, the biggest thing that puts the Jets ahead of you guys is our prospect pool, in your current prediction you really lean into that. Nothing wrong with getting younger but now you have to replenish, or you'll lose sustainability.

Your team currently has about 7mill in cap space once bonuses are factored in. If I were the Leafs in this scenario I would be looking for more dmen at short term, 1 year cap dumps and prospects. And my targets particularly would be one of the following:
1) One of T. Hickey or De Haan to replace Hainsey for a year while you wait for Borgmann, Rosen or someone I might be missing. Two really underrated LHD UFA's.
2) Trade for Letehra and any one or two of Philly's prospects as payment for eating that 4.7mill useless cap hit.
3) Trade for Ennis, and one Minny's prospects or picks.
4) Go ahead and sign Stats.
Both Letehra and Ennis come off the books before MM and AM need to be resigned.

As for my predictions, it's mostly just taking Chevy's plan to its logical conclusion. The guy has been operating the exact same way for the last seven years. At this point, what you see is what you get. He's going to draft well, prioritize locking up his top 6 over everything, and avoid trades or UFA's unless necessary. Media rumors only really confirm that.</div></div>

Very interesting.

Re: Stastny - I think something that gets lip service, but is essential to what Shanahan is trying to do, is this notion of establishing a culture change with the leafs. For better or worse, the leafs have the biggest hockey market in the game, the most money, and the most resources, and they've produced nada forever. Shanny has talked about this publicy (in more diplomatic ways) and its why Lou was brought in, and why we see guys like Hainsey and Marleau in the line-up. Sure, they can play, but I think it goes deeper than that. if you look at the leafs, they have something unique, in that, their core rigth now is three/four guys (Mathews/Marner/Reily..then Willy) who are all under 25. Outside of Kadri (which is why I don't think he'll ever be moved, that and his career demonstrates how you grow into your potential and maturity) there are no players in their prime years once JVR, Bozak, Komorov, and soon, Gards, walk - everyone else is super green. I think this is why you hear Babs doin his Babs thing about being a gud pro so much - they want to build a character team for the long haul and you need mentorship and leadership by example for that (can you imagine being 19-25 making millions and lving this life??). I also think this is why they'll go hard after Tavares, if he's available - he provides natural succession to Mathews ... on a 7 yr contract taking Tavares to 35, Mathews turns 28 - that's about perfect! Except, its expensive! and it means, to ome, if we want to address how weak our d is, then that means Willy might go - and that's acceptable. This is where Stastny comes in - if Tavares isn't available, and Stats is, then I can see them making a play for him and having him center Johnsson and Kappanen. That's fast! And probably super productive given how well Stats played with Ehlers and Laine. Anyways, I think the best thing that's happen to the leafs in decades is Shanny. He bounced around the league as an elite palyer and saw alot (and had some controversy too) and one of the things that he saw was success in Detroit. I think Yzerman played a heavy and classy influence on him, and maybe that's the kinda guy they see in Mathews... who knwos?? But I'd put a nickle on that thinking.

Re: Chevy - I saw an interview with him once where he talked about growing up on a wheat farm and how you had to work hard, make good decirions, time your efforts and then have faith that the crop would grow... seems super wise to me.

Re: your trade targets for the leafs - that makes alot of sense, in alot of ways. I played around with a trade concept for Lehetra to get a shot at SImmonds.. cause he's a gud pro !

Thanks for the back and forth Celtic. - I've enjoyed this.
Forum: Armchair-GM4 juin 2018 à 14 h 9
Sujet: JT is possible
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>It is possible IF a lot of cap dumping happens but the major concern should be next year. Unless you plan on letting Wheeler walk, you are going to struggle to sign Connor, Wheeler, Laine.</div></div>

It's resigning to the fact you have to either let Wheeler walk, trade Buff, Kulikov, and/or Perrault in the future but the Jets have the wing depth to do that. Ehlers, Laine, Connor, Vesalainen is a solid top 6 winger core. Maybe if you have to move Perrault and Kulikov to get JT I think you do it considering your C-depth is Pitsburgh-esque with Tavares-Scheif down the middle. Perrault, Kulikov gone frees almost 8.5 which covers a Laine raise essentially. CAP going up a few Million the following year opens 2-5M more for Wheeler raise. Then you're looking at Connor Ros raises but there's already room because of the space provided in the above scenario in bonuses coverage (which once they get new deals there's no bonuses for them to hit)
Forum: Armchair-GM4 juin 2018 à 14 h 8
Sujet: Trouba Bye Bye
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheCelt</b></div><div>Trade Myers. He's a 3rd pairing Dman on this team right now who makes 5.5 mill. The only people who don't think he won't get a big return are Leafs and Oilers fans, and that's because they don't want to give up their 1st. He's got 36pts in 82 games. The only free agent RHD that did better was Carlsson who will make 7-8mill. He will absolutely get a 1st round pick or an early 2nd, especially if he agrees to an extension. It's ignorant to think otherwise.

Bridge Connor and wait till Buff comes off the books, to sign him to the long term deal. And don't sign Statsny. As much as I love him as a jet, Roslovic showed us that he's more or less the same style as Pauly and his points per game and corsi indicate that he will be an above average 2C next year. I think he plays the kind of game that can mesh well with Laine and Ehlers. He's very responsible defensively and he is very good at making those stretch passes that Ehlers and Laine love. If you reaaaaally want Statsny, you could trade Little before his NMC kicks in on July 1st, but even then, the only reason fans are higher on Stats than Little is because Stats meshes better with Laine.

If you want to reduce cap even further, you can move Kulikov. It will be little to no return but you clear his cap and the UFA market for LHD's is very strong this year. Hickey or De Haan could get signed for 3mill or less for a year while we wait for Samberg to develop.

Finally, we have a ton of assets that you haven't even addressed. Petan, Lemieux, and Dano are all good LW prospects and at least two of them won't ever play for the Jets if Vesalainen develops into what we think he'll be. You can use those guys to move our cap to rebuilding teams like the Islanders, Wild, and Coyotes. Also Samberg just had a monster year at college and the WJC's. He's an LHD, we have Niku who set the record for rookie scoring in the AHL, and Morrissey who will get signed long term. That's 3 good LHD young players and prospects who can make our Left side formidable for the next 10 years. That means Stanley, who is an absolute monster is left outside looking in, meaning we can trade him too to either dump serious amounts of cap or acquire draft capital that we can use in the next 3 years.

We're only in cap trouble if we can't move two of Myers, Kulikov, Little and Perrault (I love him but he can be replaced by Vesalainen), and if you want Statsny we'll have to move 3. But that's not going to be hard at all given the amount of assets Chevy's acquired.</div></div>

We agree to disagree. No matter what happens it's going to be an interesting off season.