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McDavidFan97

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Forum: Armchair-GM31 mars 2021 à 13 h 18
Sujet: Do not resign Barrie - My reasoning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Tyson Barrie
GF-GA at 5v5

2017-18: 54-50 (51.92 GF%)
2018-19: 60-53 (53.10 GF%)
2019-20: 59-61 (49.17 GF%)
2020-21: 39-32 (54.93 GF%)

He's not great defensively, nobody is going to make that claim. But he isn't good on the PP only, he's good offensively in any situation. And good enough to be above breakeven 3 of the past 4 years (the Toronto season being the anomaly).</div></div>

He has the highest GA/60 and xGA/60 on the team. Clearly Barrie's the biggest factor contributing to our goals against problem. Nurse hasn't exactly been a defensive juggernaut either though. We can all agree that Barrie's made a number of ridiculous attempts at defence this season and blatantly cost us a few goals

These stats tell you all you need to know about the Barrie debate

xGF% while on the ice with McD (5v5)
Bear - 69.83%
Nurse - 59.09%
Barrie - 53.72%

xGF% while on the ice with Drai (5v5)
Bear - 64.88%
Nurse - 54.31%
Barrie - 49.89%

The numbers are pretty clear. Barrie doesn't contribute overall 5v5. He holds our star players back with his defensive incapability. So far, he's gotten some breaks defensively, and luck offensively. When he goes on a cold streak, there won't be any discussion of keeping Barrie. Bouch needs his spot going forward. Bouch isn't the perfect player, but has better defensive metrics for the most part, and a higher xGF%

If the debate is between Larsson and Barrie, I would take Larsson
Forum: Armchair-GM30 mars 2021 à 17 h 57
Sujet: Do not resign Barrie - My reasoning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>Tyson Barrie has been having a great defensive season then from what you are saying. Nurse is a norris Candidate and Barrie's GA/60 is lower.</div></div>

I also mentioned that Nurse needs to tighten up defensively. Take a look at this <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playercompare.php?fromseason=20202021&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=n&amp;p1=8475197&amp;p2=8477498&amp;loc=B&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">comparison of their stats</a> via NaturalStatTrick. It's clear who the better play is. I really can't understand why you try this hard to defend Barrie. He had an insane amount of awful giveways, failed passes, and mistakes last game

Nurse has a better xGA/60. I say potential Norris candidate because that seems to be the general consensus from what I've heard analysts and broadcasters say. Nobody is claiming Barrie deserves a Norris. Nurse kills penalties, has played some great PP minutes, and shuts down games late. He has a presence on the ice that Barrie doesn't bring
Forum: Armchair-GM30 mars 2021 à 17 h 29
Sujet: Do not resign Barrie - My reasoning
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zmach</b></div><div>I don't see how these stats show bear is stronger offensively or defensively. Bear has 3 points, Barrie has 32. Goals against are near identical. Barrie is outscoring his goals against by 1.

Bear has only played one good game all season and it took him till yesterday. He drag assed the rest of the time. Also look at that defense and tell me who skates the puck out of the zone if Nurse gets swarmed. You are forgetting how terribly bad the defense was at getting the puck out of their own zone even with Klefbom. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't be skating the length of the ice all game to get the puck to the offensive zone they wont have any juice left to try to catch up or get ahead in games. The fact that edmonton has been able to do what they are doing without the addition of any measurable forwards shows how much of an effect that Barrie has had on the offensive production.</div></div>

Bear's offensive production has been a bit underwhelming. IMO Bear has looked outstanding for a majority of his last 6 or 7 games. My argument isn't that Bear is better offensively, but that he is much more valuable defensively, and to the teams success overall. Barrie is an amazing talent, but you need to take his offence with a grain of salt:

5v5 points/60
Bear - .47 (.87 last season)
Barrie - 1.62 (1.18 last season)

% of 5v5 TOI with Drai
Bear - 25%
Barrie - 42%

% of 5v5 TOI with McD
Bear - 33%
Barrie - 54%

% of 5v5 TOI with McD and Drai
Bear - 6%
Barrie - 20%

Bear isn't being set up to be an offensive player. Yes, his point totals are surprisingly low but there are many factors at play. He tends to get defensive zone starts with the 3rd/4th line. Barrie plays a majority of his minutes in the offensive zone with Draisaitl and/or McDavid You don't trade a great young defenseman because his point totals are down

We allow the 10th most goals per game, and score the 4th most per game. Barrie has the highest xGA, and 2nd most actual goals against on our team. If he isn't the leading contributor to our goals against problem, I don't know who is. I suppose Nurse could tighten up a bit more but he contributes a lot more to the team overall. We need to let Barrie walk. His offence is easily replaced by Nurse or Bouch. Bouch, Larsson and Bear are miles better defensively than Barrie, those should be our 3 RD moving forward
Forum: Armchair-GM30 mars 2021 à 12 h 43
Sujet: Oilers 2021 Careful Growth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FullSend</b></div><div>Don’t bury Neal for 4.6 mill instead of buying him out for 1.9 mill, that’s a lot of money you could play around with. Also Larsson is a 3 mill dman, Russell is not a 2nd pairing dman, I’d rather explore the goalie trade market than sign Ullmark to 4 mill and Khaira isn’t a 3rd line C. Also resign Barrie or get someone who can run a powerplay. I’d give Hamilton the money if he was interested in playing for us. That’s close to 9 mill tho. So we’re missing a good 3C, top 4 D and goalie.

Also I know Smith is playing out of his mind right now. But at this age I don’t want to bet against him not regressing immensely. 2 mill could be spent elsewhere, unless he wants a million dollar contact</div></div>

I agree with everything expect buying out Neal and resigning Barrie.

We would have over $4mill in total buyout penalties if we buyout Neal. Id much rather add picks and prospects to a trade where we unload him, hopefully at the 2022 TDL where we make a big push for a cup run. It would cost us, but I'd rather it cost us some draft picks than salary cap room for the next 4+ seasons

Barrie is talented player. He also makes in insane amount of awful defensive plays, turnovers, bad passes and mistakes. He got burned on 2 goals last night. Tippet double shifted Larsson and Nurse in the last 10 minutes last night so Barrie wouldn't blow the game. Remeber that brutal turnover where he ended up diving to prevent a goal? Fortunately he didn't get cut by that skate. Nurse has the most even strength goals in the NHL, and possibly the most even strength points(havent checked but it seems possible). He can easily run the PP and Bouch can come in as a righty to give it a different look once in a while. You don't pay a top 2 defenseman $5mill to play sheltered minutes and play awful defense. Bear was outstanding last game, he plays well when the team plays bad and is great defensively. Bear, Bouch and Larsson should be on the right side next year