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Do not resign Barrie - My reasoning

Créé par: McDavidFan97
Équipe: 2021-22 Oilers d'Edmonton
Date de création initiale: 30 mars 2021
Publié: 30 mars 2021
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Barrie vs Bear comparison (All stats at 5v5) - Stats via Natural Stat Trick

If you are a firm believer that we need to resign Barrie, trade Bear, or trade Bear AND resign Barrie, I encourage you to consider these stats with an open mind. I like using these stats but also value the eye test

CF%
Bear - 54.12%
Barrie - 49.68%

FF%
Bear - 53.94%
Barrie - 48.56

xGF%
Bear - 58.04
Barrie - 49.35

Off. Zone Start%
Bear - 47.87%
Barrie - 55.33%

From these 4 stats, you can come to multiple conclusions. What I gather is that Bear is very good at transitional play. He limits opportunities against and moves the puck effectively. Barrie drives offence, but when you give up too much defensively, it doesn't matter

% of TOI played with McDavid
Bear - 32.6%
Barrie - 53.3%

xGF% with McDavid
Bear - 69.95%
Barrie - 54.74%

xGF% while paired with Nurse
Bear - 58.74%
Barrie - 49.02%

HDCF% while paired with Nurse (High danger scoring chances/Corsi for% while paired with Nurse)
Bear - 62.79%
Barrie - 47.31%

From these 4 stats, we can easily find that Bear has a much better impact on the game. Nurse and McDavid are better players with him on the ice. Dangerous scoring chances are generated. The team succeeds more with Bear on the ice

On Ice SV%
Bear - 90.4%
Barrie - 91.78%

On Ice SH%
Bear - 8.92%
Barrie - 10.92%

GF/60
Bear - 2.53
Barrie - 3.72

xGF/60
Bear - 2.66
Barrie - 2.59

GA/60
Bear - 2.53
Barrie - 2.86

xGA/60
Bear - 1.92
Barrie - 2.66

How I interpret these stats is that Barrie has gotten quite a few lucky breaks this season, while Bear hasn't gotten any. Bear's on ice SV% has been very unlucky, he's paid the price on nights where goaltending hasn't been there. Remember, Bear gives up much fewer high danger chances than Barrie. Barrie's gotten lucky offensively, but I credit some of that to his offensive talent

A quick review + my thoughts

In short, Bear is much stronger than Barrie defensively and makes the team better when he's on the ice

- Bear has a much better impact defensively and offensively than Barrie 5v5. Don't let the point totals distract you
- Bear has been very unlucky overall this season but still has better defensive metrics. Barrie has been lucky offensively
- Nurse leads defenseman in even-strength goals and points this season. He is among the best offensive defenseman. He can run an elite PP. I've liked our PP better with him on the ice. Between Nurse, Bouch, and possibly Klef, there is 0 reason to think we need to pay $5mill+ for a 1-dimensional PP specialist that can't defend or PK
- Barrie is extremely sheltered. He consistently gets benched or plays very little in close games. Larsson + Nurse are double shifted. Barrie almost cost us the game last night multiple times on top of being burned on both goals against
- Broberg and Bouchard need to be sheltered in the future. The other 4 defensemen on the roster NEED to PK. Barrie can't PK. He doesn't fit on our lineup moving forward.

I've liked what Barrie's offered this year. He was a necessary signing so we'd know we had a reliable PP quarterback option. That's a huge part of our team. I'd prefer Barrie played much less 5v5. There is no room for him moving forward. As it is, Bouchard is scratched every night. Barrie is absolutely a talented player, with 32 points in 36 games. We don't have a team that can afford to shelter him on the 3rd pair. We have more than enough PP options, we don't need to pay another one $5mill+ so Bouch can live in his shadow
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      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 53
      #1
      Hockee
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      #extendtysonbarrie

      All of Canada (minus Oilers fans) want the Oilers to give him a 6x6
      C21, McDavidFan97 et Barilko14 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 54
      #2
      LongtimeLeafsufferer
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      Going by last alone, Barrie seems to be a one trick pony....good on the PP. But really not be trusted at even strength and not to have any PK time.
      Players often get paid by offensive stats though, not on value to his team.
      McDavidFan97 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 54
      #3
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      B-b-but, I thought Barrie was a norris candidate!?
      McDavidFan97 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 55
      #4
      CbjSabresDucks
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      If im Edmonton im seeing if they can get a haul for him at the TDL, then flip those assets for a defensive RHD (maybe savard?) and a top 6 winger. Barrie is odd because by analytics he sucks, and if you use the eye test..... he blows still.


      Its ken Holland so barrie will be signed like 7x5.5
      McDavidFan97 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 55
      #5
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: deys3232
      #extendtysonbarrie

      All of Canada (minus Oilers fans) want the Oilers to give him a 6x6


      if they have to go more than 6x3 there is no chance whatsoever.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 56
      #6
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: Bdawwwgy1
      If im Edmonton im seeing if they can get a haul for him at the TDL, then flip those assets for a defensive RHD (maybe savard?) and a top 6 winger.


      Its ken Holland so barrie will be signed like 7x5.5


      Holland has been pretty chinsy. He didnt pull all the strings in detroit.
      30 mars 2021 à 15 h 58
      #7
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      Quoting: deys3232
      #extendtysonbarrie

      All of Canada (minus Oilers fans) want the Oilers to give him a 6x6


      I'd argue we need to give him an 8x8 right this second
      deys3232 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 16 h 15
      #8
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      Wait, is there serious discussion about trading Bear??
      McDavidFan97 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 16 h 16
      #9
      In Pridham we trust
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      Quoting: McDavidFan97
      I'd argue we need to give him an 8x8 right this second


      And the Leafs will take Bear off your hands (post exp draft!).
      30 mars 2021 à 16 h 25
      #10
      Pistol Pete
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      I don't see how these stats show bear is stronger offensively or defensively. Bear has 3 points, Barrie has 32. Goals against are near identical. Barrie is outscoring his goals against by 1.

      Bear has only played one good game all season and it took him till yesterday. He drag assed the rest of the time. Also look at that defense and tell me who skates the puck out of the zone if Nurse gets swarmed. You are forgetting how terribly bad the defense was at getting the puck out of their own zone even with Klefbom. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't be skating the length of the ice all game to get the puck to the offensive zone they wont have any juice left to try to catch up or get ahead in games. The fact that edmonton has been able to do what they are doing without the addition of any measurable forwards shows how much of an effect that Barrie has had on the offensive production.
      30 mars 2021 à 16 h 29
      #11
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: toque
      Wait, is there serious discussion about trading Bear??


      Bear has been terrible this year. He went through a stretch of about 10 games where he got trapped in the corner and would just fire it into the forwards skates right into pressure instead of moving his feet or sending it around to his D partner. He was good last year but he hasn't been even remotely the same player.
      30 mars 2021 à 16 h 32
      #12
      The Spawn is back
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      Quoting: C21
      B-b-but, I thought Barrie was a norris candidate!?


      Hilariously, if he does end up near 1st in D points, he may get some completely undeserved votes, considering how voting for the Norris trends to go. Nurse, on the other hand, should be getting votes. He's a godsend this season with Klef out. Barely noticed the loss of a 25 min/game dman on that left side...amazing.
      C21 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 7
      #13
      Connor
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      Quoting: Zmach
      I don't see how these stats show bear is stronger offensively or defensively. Bear has 3 points, Barrie has 32. Goals against are near identical. Barrie is outscoring his goals against by 1.

      Bear has only played one good game all season and it took him till yesterday. He drag assed the rest of the time. Also look at that defense and tell me who skates the puck out of the zone if Nurse gets swarmed. You are forgetting how terribly bad the defense was at getting the puck out of their own zone even with Klefbom. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't be skating the length of the ice all game to get the puck to the offensive zone they wont have any juice left to try to catch up or get ahead in games. The fact that edmonton has been able to do what they are doing without the addition of any measurable forwards shows how much of an effect that Barrie has had on the offensive production.


      Barrie is better offensively, but is a liability defensively. Bear is ok offensively, and solid defensively. The Oilers need defencemen that can play defence if they want to call bouchard up, and having barrie and bouchard on the right side would be horrible. Not to mention Barrie gets most of his points by handing the puck to mcdavid and draisaitl. I was a believer in barrie at the start of the year, but if you watch him in the defensive zone he's just not good at all.
      McDavidFan97 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 24
      #14
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: oilsince95
      Hilariously, if he does end up near 1st in D points, he may get some completely undeserved votes, considering how voting for the Norris trends to go. Nurse, on the other hand, should be getting votes. He's a godsend this season with Klef out. Barely noticed the loss of a 25 min/game dman on that left side...amazing.


      klefbom was gone a lot even when he was around.

      Quoting: hockeyconnor97
      Barrie is better offensively, but is a liability defensively. Bear is ok offensively, and solid defensively. The Oilers need defencemen that can play defence if they want to call bouchard up, and having barrie and bouchard on the right side would be horrible. Not to mention Barrie gets most of his points by handing the puck to mcdavid and draisaitl. I was a believer in barrie at the start of the year, but if you watch him in the defensive zone he's just not good at all.


      I would argue that bear is good offensively and shaky defensively. These numbers don't lie when they are goals against/60. Solid defensively is 1.5 goals against/60 which is what Adam Larsson, Nurse, and lagesson have.
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      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 29
      #15
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      Quoting: Zmach
      I don't see how these stats show bear is stronger offensively or defensively. Bear has 3 points, Barrie has 32. Goals against are near identical. Barrie is outscoring his goals against by 1.

      Bear has only played one good game all season and it took him till yesterday. He drag assed the rest of the time. Also look at that defense and tell me who skates the puck out of the zone if Nurse gets swarmed. You are forgetting how terribly bad the defense was at getting the puck out of their own zone even with Klefbom. Mcdavid and Draisaitl can't be skating the length of the ice all game to get the puck to the offensive zone they wont have any juice left to try to catch up or get ahead in games. The fact that edmonton has been able to do what they are doing without the addition of any measurable forwards shows how much of an effect that Barrie has had on the offensive production.


      Bear's offensive production has been a bit underwhelming. IMO Bear has looked outstanding for a majority of his last 6 or 7 games. My argument isn't that Bear is better offensively, but that he is much more valuable defensively, and to the teams success overall. Barrie is an amazing talent, but you need to take his offence with a grain of salt:

      5v5 points/60
      Bear - .47 (.87 last season)
      Barrie - 1.62 (1.18 last season)

      % of 5v5 TOI with Drai
      Bear - 25%
      Barrie - 42%

      % of 5v5 TOI with McD
      Bear - 33%
      Barrie - 54%

      % of 5v5 TOI with McD and Drai
      Bear - 6%
      Barrie - 20%

      Bear isn't being set up to be an offensive player. Yes, his point totals are surprisingly low but there are many factors at play. He tends to get defensive zone starts with the 3rd/4th line. Barrie plays a majority of his minutes in the offensive zone with Draisaitl and/or McDavid You don't trade a great young defenseman because his point totals are down

      We allow the 10th most goals per game, and score the 4th most per game. Barrie has the highest xGA, and 2nd most actual goals against on our team. If he isn't the leading contributor to our goals against problem, I don't know who is. I suppose Nurse could tighten up a bit more but he contributes a lot more to the team overall. We need to let Barrie walk. His offence is easily replaced by Nurse or Bouch. Bouch, Larsson and Bear are miles better defensively than Barrie, those should be our 3 RD moving forward
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 33
      #16
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      Quoting: Zmach
      I would argue that bear is good offensively and shaky defensively. These numbers don't lie when they are goals against/60. Solid defensively is 1.5 goals against/60 which is what Adam Larsson, Nurse, and lagesson have.
      Per NaturalStatTrick, Nurse's GA/60 is 2.88, the highest on the team. I can't find a stat that indicates Bear is bad defensively
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 41
      #17
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: McDavidFan97
      Per NaturalStatTrick, Nurse's GA/60 is 2.88, the highest on the team. I can't find a stat that indicates Bear is bad defensively


      Tyson Barrie has been having a great defensive season then from what you are saying. Nurse is a norris Candidate and Barrie's GA/60 is lower.
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 45
      #18
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      Quoting: palhal
      Going by last alone, Barrie seems to be a one trick pony....good on the PP. But really not be trusted at even strength and not to have any PK time.
      Players often get paid by offensive stats though, not on value to his team.


      Top defensemen in 5v5 scoring, past 3.5 seasons combined:

      1. Carlson: 117
      2. Burns: 106
      3. Josi: 105
      4. Nurse: 96
      5. Barrie: 95
      6. Rielly: 94
      7. Chabot: 91
      8. Karlsson: 89
      9. Hedman: 86
      10. Giordano: 86

      Your statement isn't really accurate, is it? He's elite offensively at every game state, not just on the PP.
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 47
      #19
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      This is very well done. I agree 100% that Bear is the better player today and for the future. The decision this summer for Holland is between Barrie and Larsson IMO.
      McDavidFan97 et Jeuck75 a aimé ceci.
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 48
      #20
      LongtimeLeafsufferer
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      Quoting: CD282
      Top defensemen in 5v5 scoring, past 3.5 seasons combined:

      1. Carlson: 117
      2. Burns: 106
      3. Josi: 105
      4. Nurse: 96
      5. Barrie: 95
      6. Rielly: 94
      7. Chabot: 91
      8. Karlsson: 89
      9. Hedman: 86
      10. Giordano: 86

      Your statement isn't really accurate, is it? He's elite offensively at every game state, not just on the PP.


      I would like to see his goals against at even strength. That's what I saw last season. Poor defensively except when on the PP>
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 57
      #21
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      Quoting: Zmach
      Tyson Barrie has been having a great defensive season then from what you are saying. Nurse is a norris Candidate and Barrie's GA/60 is lower.


      I also mentioned that Nurse needs to tighten up defensively. Take a look at this comparison of their stats via NaturalStatTrick. It's clear who the better play is. I really can't understand why you try this hard to defend Barrie. He had an insane amount of awful giveways, failed passes, and mistakes last game

      Nurse has a better xGA/60. I say potential Norris candidate because that seems to be the general consensus from what I've heard analysts and broadcasters say. Nobody is claiming Barrie deserves a Norris. Nurse kills penalties, has played some great PP minutes, and shuts down games late. He has a presence on the ice that Barrie doesn't bring
      30 mars 2021 à 17 h 59
      #22
      Pistol Pete
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      Quoting: McDavidFan97
      I also mentioned that Nurse needs to tighten up defensively. Take a look at this comparison of their stats via NaturalStatTrick. It's clear who the better play is. I really can't understand why you try this hard to defend Barrie. He had an insane amount of awful giveways, failed passes, and mistakes last game

      Nurse has a better xGA/60. I say potential Norris candidate because that seems to be the general consensus from what I've heard analysts and broadcasters say. Nobody is claiming Barrie deserves a Norris. Nurse kills penalties, has played some great PP minutes, and shuts down games late. He has a presence on the ice that Barrie doesn't bring


      I dont get how barrie has one bad game and he's all of a sudden dead to the fans. Bear has a bad season and nobody can even see it.
      31 mars 2021 à 9 h 2
      #23
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      Quoting: palhal
      I would like to see his goals against at even strength. That's what I saw last season. Poor defensively except when on the PP>

      Tyson Barrie
      GF-GA at 5v5

      2017-18: 54-50 (51.92 GF%)
      2018-19: 60-53 (53.10 GF%)
      2019-20: 59-61 (49.17 GF%)
      2020-21: 39-32 (54.93 GF%)

      He's not great defensively, nobody is going to make that claim. But he isn't good on the PP only, he's good offensively in any situation. And good enough to be above breakeven 3 of the past 4 years (the Toronto season being the anomaly).
      31 mars 2021 à 13 h 18
      #24
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      Quoting: CD282
      Tyson Barrie
      GF-GA at 5v5

      2017-18: 54-50 (51.92 GF%)
      2018-19: 60-53 (53.10 GF%)
      2019-20: 59-61 (49.17 GF%)
      2020-21: 39-32 (54.93 GF%)

      He's not great defensively, nobody is going to make that claim. But he isn't good on the PP only, he's good offensively in any situation. And good enough to be above breakeven 3 of the past 4 years (the Toronto season being the anomaly).


      He has the highest GA/60 and xGA/60 on the team. Clearly Barrie's the biggest factor contributing to our goals against problem. Nurse hasn't exactly been a defensive juggernaut either though. We can all agree that Barrie's made a number of ridiculous attempts at defence this season and blatantly cost us a few goals

      These stats tell you all you need to know about the Barrie debate

      xGF% while on the ice with McD (5v5)
      Bear - 69.83%
      Nurse - 59.09%
      Barrie - 53.72%

      xGF% while on the ice with Drai (5v5)
      Bear - 64.88%
      Nurse - 54.31%
      Barrie - 49.89%

      The numbers are pretty clear. Barrie doesn't contribute overall 5v5. He holds our star players back with his defensive incapability. So far, he's gotten some breaks defensively, and luck offensively. When he goes on a cold streak, there won't be any discussion of keeping Barrie. Bouch needs his spot going forward. Bouch isn't the perfect player, but has better defensive metrics for the most part, and a higher xGF%

      If the debate is between Larsson and Barrie, I would take Larsson
      CD282 a aimé ceci.
       
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