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LouRules

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Devils du New Jersey
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Forum: Armchair-GM5 oct. 2020 à 15 h 46
Sujet: JvR trade
While it won't be entirely accurate, I think some worthwhile consideration should be put into comparing the Marc Staal dump when referencing a similar case for JVR.

Forget the "real dollars owed". Staal was dumped for cap space, and JvR - in this case - would be as well. Philadelphia is not a cash-poor team, and neither are the Rangers and/or Red Wings.

1. Staal's hit was $5.7M
2. New York gave up *approximately* the 49th pick of the 2021 draft to free up that specific hit with nothing in return.
3. Considering term and his actual higher hit, JvR costs about 3.7 times what Staal does

I think it's important to recognize that JvR is still a much more useful player than Staal was, and is expected to be so for the upcoming season. This is going to influence how much it costs PHI to dump JVR, and in order to figure out how much that should influence this trade, I'll turn to WAR, which suggests that JvR is 2.7 times more valuable than Staal (the difference in their WAR).

This leads me to believe that if Philly wants no money coming back at all, that they should be looking to pay about 1.4 times the cost that NYR paid to dump Staal (3.7/2.7).

In terms of draft pick value, pick 49 currently has a value of 4.48, which means PHI would need to find a sum value of 6.14 in order to facilitate this trade. This value coincides with the value of the #31 pick.

The value of the PHI 2020 1st is 13.01, and Wood's WAR has a value of -0.1. New Jersey in this case is asking for more than twice what it should take to acquire JvR.

What I think would make more sense for both sides is the 2020 PHI 2nd (value of 4.41) and a prospect along the lines of Matthew Strome. New Jersey is acquiring the higher hit, but are acquiring the better player and assets that fuel their retool. Philadelphia doesn't give up the farm.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 juill. 2018 à 12 h 42