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JonJon

J.L.
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Forum: NHL Trades22 févr. 2019 à 15 h 4
Sujet: (OTT/CBJ) - Duchene, Bergman for Abramov, Davidsson, 2019 1st and a conditional 2020 1st round pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CrustyPieMan</b></div><div>Ottawa salvages a pretty good return. Jarmo putting all his chips at the center of the poker table. Bold move for a team that isn’t even in a playoff spot as of now and has no primer on what will happen with Bob and Bread Man.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OvisBabes</b></div><div>All that for a 1st round exit? smh I guess Kekalainen doesn't have much of a choice</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>friedberg7</b></div><div>Duchene isn't worth all of this. Columbus would be foolish to resign him after this season</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DSZ</b></div><div>If Columbus resigns Duchene then Columbus wins the trade but if he doesnt then that was a massive payment for a rental , Columbus better make it far in the playoffs their time is almost up</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Brian2016</b></div><div>Huge win for OTT. CBJ is all in w/ Panarin and Duchene. Even bigger win for OTT if Duchene re-signs w/ OTT, but that probably won't happen.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rangersandislesfan</b></div><div>I'll say Ottawa wins but Columbus might, too. I get that he might be a rental, but the goal is to win the Stanley cup. Still though, risky move from CBJ.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DSZ</b></div><div>Could be 2 Firsts if he resigns (finally read and understood the conditions) so it does change my opinion a bit</div></div>

<strong>Columbus overpaid .... come on guys?</strong>

1. <strong>Bergman </strong>(a 2nd) = <strong>Abramov </strong>(a 3rd)
2. <strong>Davidsson</strong> = an overage 6th
3. <strong>None </strong>of them project to be an NHL player.

Columbus gave up a mid-late 1st and a 6th round pick for Duchene.
Forum: NHL Trades22 févr. 2019 à 14 h 10
Sujet: (OTT/CBJ) - Duchene, Bergman for Abramov, Davidsson, 2019 1st and a conditional 2020 1st round pick
Yeah I don't think CBJ over payed here.
it's a 1st, which is expected on this caliber of a rental. Then you are looking at the Prospects. Abramov is an interesting prospect. He wasn't really lights out for the Monsters this year like CBJ wanted him to be. Only 12 goals on the season for a guy who really can't play below the 2nd line due to his size. That's not gonna get you to the NHL. He is only 20 though. But you would have liked to see more there if you are CBJ. I don't think he is going to really blossom. Davidsson is like nothing. He's 21 and still playing in europe. He's done ok over there, but that really tells you all you need to know. If he had the skills he'd be in the NHL by that age. He was a 6th round pick so the odds of him getting to that level were already slim.

If MD resigns CBJ gives up 2 firsts. If he doesn't they basically gave up a 1st for a high end rental. It's really not bad. Something tells me Ottawa could have done better, but probably didn't want to help a few other teams.
Forum: NHL Signings27 sept. 2018 à 22 h 10
Sujet: Columbus Blue Jackets signed Mark Letestu (1 Year / $750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ForeverDED</b></div><div>Meh. I don't believe he moves the needle for the team, but the money is great and the term is ideal. He can contribute as a depth player. The only possible negative (I don't know his possession metrics) is that he could be taking a roster spot from a promising prospect (don't know what Columbus has there).</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>don't really like it. 33-34 years old. If there was really anything left in the tank he would have been signed by now. 30 other GMs passed. Should have saved the roster spot for someone younger</div></div>

It's a 1 year 2-way depth signing for a guy that already lives in Columbus. He was already assigned to AHL, not taking any roster spot. Also, very well-regarded veteran player within the organization. Literally no downside to this signing.
Forum: NHL Signings4 sept. 2018 à 21 h 14
Sujet: Winnipeg Jets signed Blake Wheeler (5 Years / $8,250,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rebecca</b></div><div>Presumably you mean longer than 5y (like taking the same money and spreading it out over 8-10y with just 1/2M in the final 3/4y)? These back diving contracts are no longer allowed (and haven’t been for 5y since the last CBA was signed. There is a limit on the % variation in salary year over year so if he signed for 8y (the max), then it would def cost more money than the 5y contract.</div></div>

<strong>You can still make back diving contracts</strong>....they are just more strict about it. The lowest years salary can't be less than 50% of highest years salary.

And the salary can't reduce by more than 30% (or something similar) from one year to the next.

So they could have given him an 8-Year deal like:

9,000,000
9,000,000
7,000,000
7,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
--------------
$52,000,000 <strong>TOTAL</strong>
$ 6,500,000 <strong>CAP-HIT</strong>

<strong>The two keys would be:</strong>

1) <strong>NOT INCLUDING</strong> a NTC for the final 3 years.
2) <strong>INCLUDING </strong>a verbal agreement along the lines of "if you're so bad we can't trade you in year 6, 7 or 8 .... than you have have to retire due to injury so we can LTIR you".

- Wheeler would say yes because he's guaranteed $10,750,000 more, and still gets paid a similar amount over the first five years.
- Winnipeg would say yes because his cap-hit is nearly $2,000,000 less, and they wouldn't lose sleep because any 37 year old will choose a fully paid LTIR retirement over the AHL (if it came to that).

Dunno why more teams don't structure deals like this (there's a reason the Leafs traded Clarkson for Horton's contract .... and it's because Horton is retired).
Forum: NHL Signings13 août 2018 à 16 h 31
Sujet: Ottawa Senators signed Brady Tkachuk (3 Years / $3,425,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>Finally some good news out of Kanata. I think he's pretty much a lock to be playing in the NHL this season. I would imagine that both Tkachuk and Brown start on the third line together with Ryan, Boedker or White.</div></div>

Why does everyone keep saying he is a lock to play in the NHL this season? The kid had 8 goals last year in college. EIGHT. I get he has other elements to his game, and I not doubting that he will be a good NHL player, but there is no reason to rush him to the NHL when this team is going to be dreadful.

Am I the only one who thinks it might be a good idea to NOT see him in the NHL in 2018-19? Let him tear it up in the OHL or AHL and then give him a spot on the top line when Stone leaves.

As someone who follows the NCAA college hockey scene closely, I don't see anything in his game that shouts "NHL Rookie of the Year" in 18-19.

I look at it, and I see Casey Mittelstadt might be a comparable, but he at least played his age 18-19 year in college, and scored 30 point in 34 games (Tkachuk had 31 in 40 games).

No offense, but it feels like you're asking Joshua Norris (19th overall in 2017 by San Jose) to come in and play in your middle six. That guy had eight goals last year, too, and NO ONE is talking about him playing in the AHL in 2018-19, let alone the NHL.

Or how about Montreal's Ryan Poehling, who had 14 goals and 31 points in 37 games at St. Cloud last year as a freshman. He's part of an organization that HAS NO CENETERMEN, and yet he still isn't an "NHL player."

(I know offensive numbers aren't everything).

Let the kid develop...
Forum: NHL Signings2 août 2018 à 11 h 4
Sujet: Colorado Avalanche signed Patrik Nemeth (1 Year / $2,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>Ummmmm......? That seems a lot of money for a guy who has ONE FULL SEASON in the NHL. The kid was on waivers this time last year. Look, the guy should probably be an NHLer on this team. He looked fine last year with the Avs. Is he a $2.500 mil guy? No. $1.500, $2.000 sure I can deal with that. This seems like overkill. Mark Barberio got LESS than $1.500 mil after the same situation last season.</div></div>

Maybe something to do with his 38% O-zone starts and 58% GF%? I'm guessing they want to see if he can do it again, hence the one-year contract. His corsi and fenwick are ok, but he killed it when you look at high-danger chances and goals. Was it a fluke? This is the way to find out.

$2.5M is fine considering Nemeth was 4th in 5v5 TOI, 2nd in 4v5 TOI and had the best PK results of any regular.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 juill. 2018 à 12 h 29
Sujet: Keeping the Big Pieces Part 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JonJon</b></div><div>I'm not thinking of a breakout season because in many ways he already had that. I'm just looking at other deals that have been done in the recent past in similar situation. Not sure if you want to even call it a bridge deal, just a smaller deal. I don't think any good GM wants to evaluate the worth of a player based on a good chemistry with another player.</div></div>

Fair enough, but I'm more interested in taking these ideas to the logical conclusion, from a completely numbers standpoint. The best way to make money in the NHL is with an 8 year contract front loaded as much as possible with as much signing bonus as possible. If Morrissey has some issue with staying in Winnipeg for 8 years or the Jets have an issue with offering for 8 years, or don't want to maximize the amount of money they give him due to injury risk or whatever, then c'est la vie.

In regards to chemistry, my thoughts exactly. Which is why, he can likely be signed for much cheaper than he's worth. You can show empirically that Josh Morrissey increases the shot metrics of all his d partners. That is huge because for Trouba it's the difference between being outshout and outshooting the opponent when he's on the ice. If that doesn't remind you of another non-flashy defenseman that breaks just above even corsi, isn't known for offense, and elevates his teammates metrics, then I refer you to the preds series for one Mattias Ekholm. Going by Ekholm's box score stat line, he is about a 3-5mill player and yet I found myself thinking he was better than PK, Josi, and Ellis. That's exactly what Morrissey is. As a fan, I want to see him locked up for as many years as we can get, as cheaply as you can get when you're signing someone for their effect on teammates, and not actual offense or box score stats.
Forum: Armchair-GM15 juill. 2018 à 6 h 29
Sujet: Keeping the Big Pieces Part 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JonJon</b></div><div>I'd like to hear why Connor is going for a bridge but Morrissey's not? I don't see Morrissey signing long term in this situation with arbitration and all. If he waited another season or two he could sign long term with much better money.</div></div>

I doubt that. Morrissey has had 20 and 26 point seasons in the NHL to this point, with decent but not mind blowing shot metrics. Add in that he plays a position that is naturally hard to 'break out' in. And for good measure you can add that he is not a shoot-first kind of player, even going back to his junior days when he did put up big offensive numbers. If you're expecting a breakout season from what he's already produced I think you're in for a tough go. His best attribute is his chemistry with Trouba and that he can put up decent but not mind-blowing numbers with very tough minutes. So if Morrissey's upside is what we're at with maybe a minimal gain that probably comes out to around 5mill/yr. If we go with the Matt Cane numbers that have him listed a shade over 4mill. Without going completely accounting geek on you, the time value of money and the concept of his prime as a window would say it would be smarter not to take a bridge.

Connor is much more likely to improve given that he is younger, and playing a position where players' production can jump higher in the first few years of his career. It's not hard to see him as an eventual 8+mill/yr guy if he cleans up his shot metrics, which is very possible to happen. Connor has a pretty unnaturally high shooting percentage so it's likely his numbers might take a hit next year when that sh% comes back down to Earth, but to reiterate. Forwards and especially wingers have much more potential to raise their numbers higher on a year-to-year basis on the back of development through their ELC.

For the Jets bridging Connor rather than JoMo makes way more sense since the next big contract to come off the books is Byfuglien. The year after we sign Connor we do have to sign Roslovic and Niku but that should be pretty open shut, especially since Little's NMC becomes a M-NTC. You do not want to have sign Niku, Morrissey, and Roslovic when the only big contract that comes off the books might be Little (praying that's who Seattle takes). Signing Connor when Byfuglien (and Perrault if we haven't traded him) comes off the books is another story, and will be cake compared to what Chevy will go through this year and next.
Forum: NHL Signings14 juill. 2018 à 11 h 50
Sujet: Vegas Golden Knights signed Marc-André Fleury (3 Years / $7,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JonJon</b></div><div>Tell me a year there's been a surplus of no1 goalies. You have to pay in order to keep your core intact. Also in Rask they didn't know exactly what they were getting, in Fleury it's quite the opposite.</div></div>

That's the point, teams don't tend to let #1's get to the market often because they understand how important it is to have stability in the backend. I'm honestly not sure where you're trying to go with this lol. My comparison between BOS/VGK was that both were failed SCF appearance and at the time they were built to make additional runs, but had no goalie in the system to be the #1 guy should their current #1 walk. You can look at whatever comparison you want and say they are not the same, but in mine comparison they are. Clearly this is going to just continue to go in a circle, so with that I'm going to just walk away. You're more than welcome to reply, but I'm not going to read it....let alone see it.