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Billius

Leafs Fan
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM3 déc. 2018 à 15 h 23
Sujet: Leafs 2019-20 - Roster Even with Big AMMM
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>1. Cap will not be that high
2. Kap will sign for around $3.5M, if not Leafs will have to let him walk. There is definitely not a chance he takes $2.7M, that will result in the league stepping in for arbitration and ironically, Dzingel with similar numbers and age, will be signed in the off season as a UFA and likely command around $3.5M to $4M give or take.
3. Most importantly, you need to understand how LITR works. You can read up on it on this website. You can just LITR 100% of the player salary prior to the season starting. The Leafs must be cap compliant prior to day 1 of the season. LITR, for full relief, doesn't happen until the 1st day of the season. There is a percentage of overage allowed but it's not even close to the $5M of Horton's cap hit. As a Hawks fan, we know this from the Hossa situation. This has a huge impact on roughly $3.5m they need to have available going into the start of the season. See that you have a blog and you have a lot of good logic on it, so no offense, but a strong suggestion would be that you fully understand the LITR process if you want people to take your blog seriously.</div></div>

Thanks for the star but I'd rather have this report from Pierre Lebrun just announced today Dec 3rd.
"BOG meeting now underway here in Sea Island, Georgia. Part of agenda today is a salary cap projection/range from the league. The cap projection is around $83M for next season, up from $79.5M. That’s an estimate because the league needs to negotiate final number with NHLPA in June"
Forum: Armchair-GM1 déc. 2018 à 17 h 25
Sujet: Leafs 2019-20 - Roster Even with Big AMMM
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JimCarrey</b></div><div>Good post... Not a fan of Marleau playing centre though. He seems to be slowing down a little this year and playing centre (even on the 4th line) will make it worse. Why not resign Lindholm and leave Marchment in the A?

Also for those of you debating what Matthews and Marner will make...has it not become clear that Dubas and co will try to grind these guy's AAVs down as much as possible? It not like they're going through this whole Nylander fiasco so they can hand Matthews and Marner blank checks. Matthews will look for 13, Leafs will start at 10.5/11 and they'll probably meet in the middle around 11.5/12. I think they're gonna really try to keep Marner under 10...I mean Kucherov just signed for 9.5 so that seems reasonable...And you know he wouldn't miss 30 games next year trying to squeeze half a million more per year</div></div>

Thanks. Yeah I put what I believe to be upper end estimates for AM and MM. But kinda hard to be certain so far away from the end of the season without a confirmed Cap for next season.
Forum: Armchair-GM1 déc. 2018 à 14 h 52
Sujet: Leafs 2019-20 - Roster Even with Big AMMM
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>1. Cap will not be that high
2. Kap will sign for around $3.5M, if not Leafs will have to let him walk. There is definitely not a chance he takes $2.7M, that will result in the league stepping in for arbitration and ironically, Dzingel with similar numbers and age, will be signed in the off season as a UFA and likely command around $3.5M to $4M give or take.
3. Most importantly, you need to understand how LITR works. You can read up on it on this website. You can just LITR 100% of the player salary prior to the season starting. The Leafs must be cap compliant prior to day 1 of the season. LITR, for full relief, doesn't happen until the 1st day of the season. There is a percentage of overage allowed but it's not even close to the $5M of Horton's cap hit. As a Hawks fan, we know this from the Hossa situation. This has a huge impact on roughly $3.5m they need to have available going into the start of the season. See that you have a blog and you have a lot of good logic on it, so no offense, but a strong suggestion would be that you fully understand the LITR process if you want people to take your blog seriously.</div></div>

- On the Salary Cap, reports from the Florida Governor's meeting put the range at between $81.4 and $85.4 (ink in blog).
I took a little under the mid-point but there are those who believe that could be high, we'll have to wait and see.

- You don't think a bridge deal at 2-3 years for Kapanen for $2.7 is realistic? I looked at Ondrej Kase in blog. - both RFA's same draft year, Kase put up good numbers. Dzingel is a UFA with more bargaining power.

- Thanks for reminder on some of the LTIR details, when I did this I confess I took the easy route but I did acknowledge in the blog that any inefficiency by Leafs in using LTIR would hit that $3M reserve I had allocated at RD.
Last season the Leafs did implement LTIR right away (1st or 2nd day?) and did benefit from *most* of the $5.3M in Horton's hit (roughly $5M as I recall). I believe the offseason LTIR buffer is not an issue and would not be a problem, based on my recall of discussions here last season and CF's updated details. Can you explain that more?

Thanks for feedback, this is very helpful.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 nov. 2018 à 9 h 56
Sujet: Leafs with Nylander signed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Thanks Billius on your usual fine detail about the cap rules. And welcome back, your insight is always appreciated.</div></div>

Thanks but the real expert here is Earl Schwartz. He has built a spreadsheet tool to let you calculate the cap hit formula. I figured you guys would find it useful for your work: <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PEWXhze7VmM7aCJJVPMxkvnKJxiSqOJ7jf3V7YxUBVg/edit#gid=558179824" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Nylander Cap Hit Calculator</a>

I look forward to your scenarios over coming days and hope we find the actual term closer to 8 years and not 5 as the Nylander camp probably wants so he can have a chance at a big pay day as a UFA after turning 27.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 nov. 2018 à 18 h 26
Sujet: What Leafs could look like next year wo Nylander
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Got to agree with Logan. There are a lot better ways to manage the LHD position that signing an expensive Gardiner long term. Getting this mystical RHD at 5m probably isn't happening, so you might to settle for Zaitsev at 4.5m</div></div>

This scenario was predicated on Leafs not being able to sign Nylander and a trade taking place out of necessity, so the $5M is a plug most likely filled by the other side of the trade, eg Pesce as part of the return.
Zaitsev is not a top 4 defenseman, Gardiner definitely is. I could be persuaded to not sign Gardiner at that money but I'd need to see a realistic solid top 4 scenario to convince me. Rielly-Pesce and Gardiner-Dermott would give us that I think.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 nov. 2018 à 14 h 29
Sujet: What Leafs could look like next year wo Nylander
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Gardiner isn't all bad, he does a tonne of good things each game that the vast majority of players just can't do, its just his lapse that bother me. If Rielly wasn't as good as he is offensively, Gardiner would be far more important than he is. At this stage of the Leafs development with the guys they have coming up on the blueline, they don't need him and I think Sandin and Liljegren will be better in the near future.</div></div>

I think you're right about Sandin from what I've seen, the kid has poise and brains. Jury is out for me on Timothy Liljegren, he's still just 19 but so far his development looks like a 3 year process and right now I'm not sure I could say he would crack the top 4 with any confidence. He is having trouble handling the puck consistently, judging the risk of his plays, and his skating looks to have plateau'd below expectations. That could all change of course as he develops. It's certainly a 'Plan B' that I thought about with Dermott and Sandin but it may be premature to give up on a D of Gardiner's quality in hopes the pipeline can replenish. I hate the idea of moving Dermott to the RD side but it's the best I can come up with.
Forum: Armchair-GM7 nov. 2018 à 14 h 19
Sujet: What Leafs could look like next year wo Nylander
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Trading Zaitsev may be a necessary but not if that is to keep Gardiner, let him walk. I can't stand watching him slowly coast away from the front of the net while he watches the play only to leave someone wide open in the crease. He has done that more than once every single game.</div></div>

We can agree on some of Gardiner's shortcomings but his overall results easily make him a #2 LD. I'd prefer to keep him unless something better comes along because I'm assuming it's not easy to fill the top 4 with Gardiner gone, Zaitsev playing at 3rd pair level for 2 1/2 years, Hainsey not re-signed and aging, and teams unwilling to part with top 4 D as it is.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/tL5kyJf.png" alt="tL5kyJf.png">
Forum: Armchair-GM5 juill. 2018 à 7 h 46
Sujet: Yes it works out
I love seeing fellow fans work out their projections for the Leafs in 2019-20.
Here's a few of my thoughts:
- they can save money by avoiding possible ELC performance bonuses (eg Borgman, Rosen, Ozhiganov) in favour of straight low cost (Holl)
- option to sign Sparks less than Pickard and save some $
- I think Johnsson will cost more (think Hyman/Brown)
- I think we'll see Auston's value at 11M+, so I'd plug in $11M assuming he compromises
- realistic cap = $81.5
- I'd add the 23rd player to the roster to make the projection more bullet-proof
- I like Grund's potential too but I think AJ is a player that is better suited to a top 9 offensive role right now.
- I hate to say it, but with JT as a centre, Marner's agent is going to tell him to go have a breakout year then go for $8M+ next summer. It could be a tough negotiation.
Forum: Armchair-GM12 oct. 2017 à 22 h 31