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Billius

Leafs Fan
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15 juin 2017
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Maple Leafs de Toronto
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Forum: Armchair-GM9 oct. 2017 à 10 h 47
Sujet: Doughty
I love these trade debates over Doughty with my morning coffee. :)

My thoughts:
+ The next two years is the big window for the Leafs so Doughty fits that and he could be the difference in a playoff run.
+ Doug, I would make that trade if I were the Leafs, JVR going opens room for Kapanen. They lose some sweet production this year from JVR but it's worth Doughty for these two years. Nothing they are giving up is critical to their future. +
- I don't see LA trading Doughty since he is a franchise defensemen and they haven't given up hope that they can win another Cup with Kopitar, Doughty, Quick, and Carter. Why should they blow up their chances? JVR, Bracco, and Dermott can't replace Doughty in the playoffs.

Overall, there's a lot that is tempting here for the Leafs because realistically Leafs without Doughty are a good team but with Doughty they become a GREAT team.
Forum: Armchair-GM6 oct. 2017 à 21 h 46
Sujet: Going Whole Hog
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Doug7004</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Leafs can't afford Ekblad's 7.5m cap hit in future years. And no team is going is going to give up so much for the Ekblad. He was average at best last year, partly due to injuries. He has to prove to other he is worth that contract. Why is it the Leafs are the only team that have to give up so much in Ekbald or Doughty trades?

And it really isn't having the Leafs going in "whole hog." Bozak and JVR are needed by the Leafs this year. So the Leafs trade two pieces for one piece for this year, plus futures?

Why would the Leafs trade a 3rd rounder for Pickard. He was placed on waivers with no takers. What goalie does Pickard replace?</div></div>

Pal: there's your answer. . . .Leafs waited till they could bring in Pickard and send him to the Marlies while they can assess without having to waive anyone. Great deal for Leafs for basically a guy (Lindberg) that would never have cracked the lineup, and can probably play for Vegas!</div></div>

Doug, that deal was sweet. Lou played it like a poker player, letting McPhee sweat out the week. A 6th and #14 in the Leaf's LW depth chart is a smackdown.
Forum: NHL6 oct. 2017 à 21 h 34
Sujet: Can Pickard Become a Starter in the Future?
It's possible. I'll tell you why. Last year was a tire fire in Colorado and anyone who watched the Leafs over the years knows if the defense sucks, the goalie will get killed. Despite that, Pickard had a .904 sv % which is low but not what I would have expected and his sv % was better than the others in Colorado.
Looking at his whole body of work, so far he has ranked 50th on goals saved above expected (from modeling of shot difficulty). That's out of 68 NHL goalies. If he is given a better defense, I could see that ranking rise. In the World Championships where he had a much better defense, he allowed 1 goal in 2 games in 2016 then in 2017 had a .938 save % in 7 games.

He's only 25, that's not that old for goalies to still develop. More likely he ends up being a solid backup but there's a chance he could be a starter in the future.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 oct. 2017 à 15 h 57
Sujet: How I would set up lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oiler3535</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Gee, after 7 - 2 Victory last night, I'll stick to Babcock's version.</div></div>

Lol. I make a bunch of these for fun, and look at lots of other peoples'. You ever made a positive comment on a Leaf roster?

Billius, I don’t think the Bonus applies this year. Same reason for the big 5+ penalty, which is from last year. If under the cap the bonus would count this year, but because they’re over the cap using LTIR, it will have to count against next year's cap. As for ice time issue, I see what you mean, but think rolling 4 lines will devastate other teams to the point our guys will get more out of their shifts, and it will keep them fresh for playoffs.

Doug, I’d be entirely okay with switching Komarov and Brown. Would fit Babs' love of having a grinder with skill players.</div></div>

I should have explained further. The 7.1M in bonuses would normally be an overage and rollover to next year as you said. But 7.1M - (7.5% of 75M cap) is considered excess. That $1.475M is considered a penalty and is charged automatically to this year's cap. It's in the CBA but not in CF yet.
Forum: Armchair-GM5 oct. 2017 à 9 h 41
Forum: Armchair-GM4 oct. 2017 à 17 h 52
Sujet: 2017-18 Leafs Confirmed Starting Lineup/Special Teams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>The real reason that Aaltonen is not on the roster, is that the Leafs have 23 players on the roster not counting Horton. So the fact is, Aaltonen did not make the 23 player roster. By your post are you saying that the Leafs can use this current season performance bonus in 2017/2018, because Horton will be going on LTIR after game one?</div></div>

Short answer is that in this unique situation the Leafs would be "charged" excess bonus in-season, whether achieved by player or not, as a "penalty".

More on this rare situation:
If the Leafs had, say, preferred to have Aaltonen in the starting 23 man roster instead of Fehr (for example), Aaltonen's ELC bonus of $850K would have sent their total ELC bonuses to $6.25M. That's over the 7.5% of Cap allowed for bonuses so a "Cap Penalty" of $625K would have been assigned. Besides the penalty, the Leafs cap hit would then have been more than what one LTIR could cover and they would have had to use the 2nd LTIR to be cap compliant. But doing that at the start of the season would have "wasted" most of the Cap relief a 2nd LTIR could provide.

As the season goes on, the daily salary cap is calculated and eventually it opens up more accumulated room to allow for the $625K penalty, without using the 2nd LTIR. That's what I meant. The Leafs will want to be able to juggle their roster and have a new large salary incoming before using the second LTIR. (Horton is the second LTIR because Lupul's has been used as of 5pm last night.)

The interesting thing is this may also have affected the decision to include both Borgman and Rosen on the opening roster. Because any two of (Aaltonen, Borgman, Rosen) creates a $625K "Cap Penalty". In fact, if the Leafs have all 3 join the roster, they incur a penalty of $1.475M against their cap. This penalty does not depend on whether the players reach their bonus targets, so I believe (not certain) that as soon as a 2nd or 3rd plays a game on the roster, the cap penalty is assigned for the season. I have messaged CapFriendly and they stated that IF the Leafs do have such a Cap Penalty, they will then reflect it on the Leafs CF page.

EDIT: I don't pretend to be an expert, this is my understanding after reading others on r/Leafs, E. Schwartz article on PPP, my own reading of CBA and latest CBA FAQ on CF.