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AC14

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23 déc. 2022
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Blues de St-Louis
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Forum: Armchair-GM25 avr. à 17 h 19
Sujet: Blues and Wild fans thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FloppyBiscuit</b></div><div>I like Buch, but certainly not that much. Buch is worth a good prospect and a late 1st. That's what Reinhart and Fiala each got and they were both RFAs at the time, while Buch will become an unrestricted free agent after one year.</div></div>

As much as I don't like it I don't think I can disagree with you. I don't think the RFA vs UFA on an expiring contract like this means a whole lot in the offseason. I would assume that anyone acquiring him would have an eye on immediately extending. I don't think Healey fits that bill of the level of prospect you would look for, but that's not really too important to this statement. There's no way Minnesota would move Rossi in this framework of a deal at this juncture of his career. I think if you're looking at a player like Rossi it would probably be like Rossi and a 2nd. But that really also doesn't fit a large need for the Blues.

The pick swap part is interesting as it's really not much movement. Hard to put a value on moving up or down between 13 and 16 until you are at the draft and probably on the clock.

Fwiw I don't imagine that the Blues are going to trade Buch. I also don't imagine if they do it would be to Minnesota. But in all reality who knows.
Forum: Armchair-GM25 avr. à 16 h 54
Sujet: Random idea
Last years #10 who by video evidence from last year the Blues were contemplating moving up in the draft for and #16 for this year is way too much to get #5 in this draft even with it including (assumed #27) a late 1st.

I don't really forsee a world where the Blues would consider moving Dvorsky.

It would be loads more beneficial for us to try and move up from 16 to 12 or so, or hope one of the upper tier defenseman fall, or just pick out of the group that's leftover of defenseman. We need a 2nd line center almost as bad as we need a top pair LD.

Dvorsky isn't guaranteed to be a 2nd line center, and most likely wont for a year or two. But any defenseman we pick isn't really guaranteed to fill the hole we have either. We'd need alot more luck for a defenseman we'd draft at 5 to become a top end defenseman than we would need for Dvorsky to become a top 6 Center.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 avr. à 15 h 51
Sujet: Cup Chasing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Nolan_Gooch</b></div><div>Nothing to serve their needs is funny:tearsofjoy isn't it the blues who need a top 4 defensive defenseman(jensen), secondary scoring(milano) and good/great prospects for the future(cristall&amp;1st). The entire deal is tailored to the blues needs.</div></div>

Jensen isn't exactly ideal unless we were to find a deal to move Faulk out. And even then, we have a deficiency more so on guys who are solid two-way defenders or a high end defenseman that can control the game. Wouldn't consider Milano a large secondary scoring option, but again, I don't think his contract is too prohibitive. He's more of what we have, inconsistent secondary scoring. We have loads of guys that can score towards that 40-50 point pace. We have nobody that fills the role of a second line scorer. Not that i'd expect that back in a Buch trade, but when you look at secondary scoring and where the issue is I don't think Milano is a guy that you could consider filling the hole to help fix our second line or even compliment it.

I'm not denying that Cristall is a solid prospect. And the 1st is certainly of interest. We have loaded up so much on forward prospects and neglected defensive prospects to a degree that adding another and putting a value on it doesn't make a ton of sense.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 avr. à 15 h 45
Sujet: Post Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StDetroitBlueWings</b></div><div>If Marner was to take a significantly lower AAV, then it'd be something to consider. But agreed it's probably 12 mil and we aren't paying that. He's good, yes. But not worth the money plus giving up your top defender in the process. Imagine if Parayko had a competent partner (granted Leddy was decent this year, not great but serviceable), this defense would be a lot better. Just lacking those complementary pieces.

Just wish people would both a) realize the actual worth of Parayko and b) just stop trying to trade for him in general. It's getting old at this point</div></div>

In reality what is the ideal partner for Parayko? A true 1D? The realization that i'm making at least is that Parayko is what he is, but he is tasked with an extremely difficult role in a very unrealistic circumstance. He's never going to be an above average puck mover, it's not the end of the world though because he is high end at his ability to move the puck out of the zone due to skating.

If we want to keep him in this role and have him succeed to his capabilities, you have to find a player that is capable of playing extremely difficult matchups and have a great first pass. There aren't hardly any of those in the NHL, if any. Slavin may be the only true exception to that, and i'm not entirely too sure how good of a first-passer he is due to limited viewings. Leddy has been pretty good while here to be honest. But he isn't suited for the role either. They're making it work which is great.

The best realistic scenario is you fix the absolute mess of a bottom 4 that you have. I understand the ideology of how the defense is constructed. Cave in the Parayko pair hope it bends but doesn't break, and have the Krug/Faulk pair outscore the lesser lines of opponents. What's the issue with that? Well Faulk and Krug as a pair have a lot of mishaps in the offensive zone and the defensive zone. And frankly these loaded teams that are able to roll 3 or 4 quality lines are going to eat them alive and have. If you could somehow work a fix to having a Parayko pair and a Leddy pair with a partner for Parayko that can be an above average two-way player and also control the game and having a pretty good #3 to play with Leddy and balance their usage alot more towards rolling the pairs versus strict matchup you'd see alot better results from both pairs.

But we're handcuffed because we don't have the cap structure and haven't been able to develop a high end defenseman since Dunn (Mostly due to a lack of acquiring candidates). The Sanheim trade that was shot-down by Krug would've been pretty ideal, but not perfect by any means. It's unfortunate that we didn't move towards waiving Krug and using that to sway the NTC which I figured was the main reason to hand them out like candy and being so stringent on NMCs, but here we are.

Parayko will only look good when he plays to such a high standard of being a shutdown player that it's hard to digest from the outside.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 avr. à 11 h 4
Sujet: Cup Chasing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StDetroitBlueWings</b></div><div>I don't mind the trade for Buch

Just feels like too many pieces coming back. Condense it down and it'll be better. Instead of Milano AND Jenson, one player that holds similar value

Plus a d-man is nice to come back, but we already have 4 borderline immoveable contracts. Can't be adding more big money on the back end without moving someone out first</div></div>

I feel like the 24 1st + Iorio + a 3rd makes more sense for the Blues. If it's the salary hit that's the issue, I'd imagine there should be no issues with retention of Buchnevich. I just don't see much of a reason the Blues would want to take Jensen back unless we moved on from Faulk. Kessel is going to get ice time next year to start the year, he's somewhat earned not being blocked. No issue with Milano coming back but I don't think he really fits much of a need here, don't love the contract, but certainly not a back breaker.
Forum: Armchair-GM24 avr. à 10 h 57
Sujet: Post Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StDetroitBlueWings</b></div><div>Love it.
People bash on Parayko saying he's trash
Yet try to trade for him to get him on the first pair
But try to acquire him for cheap crappy players with no value because "he sucks"
#1 in blocked shots, plays top pair minutes every night, excellent shut down guy
Clearly people don't pay attention and still only adhere to the Athletic article from over a year ago saying he was a bad contract</div></div>

Wouldn't say Marner is a crappy player. I know this is cherry-picking a bit.

But the root of the issue is Toronto fans only wants to trade him because he's a soft player. St. Louis notoriously crucifies soft players (see Jordan Kyrou). It's a terrible fit. Now also factor in that our defense outside of Parayko is absolutely god awful, and one of our two expensive long-term contracts is for a RW, our top 1 (or 2nd best depending on viewer) prospect is also a RW, and it's not to hard to see why St. Louis isn't going to pay Marner 12m/year.

The frustrating thing in regards to Parayko ACGM trades is it's constantly the same one 50 times over. Regardless of how analytics views Parayko, there's no denying the role he HAS to play for us in St Louis and frankly there's maybe 5 other defenseman in the league that could handle the role and that's being generous. Our defense is not constructed to remove a Parayko and throw in a Liljegren or any other bottom pair/2nd pair tweener and call it a day because hey corsi says we get outshot with Parayko on the ice, it can't get much worse. Well it's easy to overlook we changed our whole defensive system to allow outside shots at a very high rate, and our forwards lack the decision-making to shoot versus making 3 extra passes to turn the puck over.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 avr. à 15 h 36
Sujet: honestly want to know if either team would do this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>No chance.

Of all the guys who have been dealt for a known top-10 pick in cap era, all had term or other pieces attached.

<strong>2022: DeBrincat (1 year, then RFA)</strong>
2021: Ekman-Larsson (6 years), Garland (RFA), cap dumps
2017: Stepan (4 years) (with Raanta)
2013: Schneider (2 years)
<strong>2012: Staal (10 years)</strong>
2011: Carter (11 years)

Seth Jones, Eric Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan and Phil Kesssel trades were all done a year or more in advance of draft, so they were not 'known' top-10 picks.</div></div>

The 2 outlined are very similar situations. Debrincat not as much due to the RFA status as there was some control added to that.

Staal was in pretty much the same exact situation. You can't count a contract that's signed after the trade if that's an avenue you're going to go, because that is very feasible it would happen with any Buchnevich trade which he would be able to sign an extension a bit after the draft like Staal did.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 avr. à 11 h 40
Forum: Trade Machine Proposals22 avr. à 17 h 40
Sujet: Campbell cap dump Blues can help
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>It's a terrible idea because that is not at all what we'd ask for to take a big dump we'd need to either buy out or retain half to trade for nothing if we're lucky.

As for cap space it's always better to have it until you need it than it is to have none when you do. We are not Chicago looking 3-5 years off. It won't take three years to compete if we make smart moves with intention. This is not that. I'm aware that compete and contend aren't the same thing, but we all know we're not going to pay 10M for far off low 1sts.</div></div>

I know it’s not going to happen. I just don’t see much of an issue with it if we’re going to be stringent about sticking to the plan.

Only downside is it would limit a possibility if something came up where we needed to take on cap space for a player that we really liked. But that goes against the help coming internally
Forum: Armchair-GM21 avr. à 21 h 25
Sujet: 2024 STL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JMSTL2019</b></div><div>Massive overpay for Marchessault, slight overpay for Scotty P and no need for Blais, no need for a depth goalie, and Dean is better than Tierney. Any Blues forum here on out than leaves the defense the same is questionable.</div></div>

Personally I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the defense the same next year. Blues aren’t going to sink assets in to move guys. Faulk is probably the only piece that’s movable between him and Krug, but they also both have NTCs for another year.

There’s not much benefit in moving Leddy or Parayko unless they’re trying to bottom out, which Armstrong pretty much shot that down, or they trade them for younger players who can fit a role that’s similar.

Also they’ve pretty much shot down the idea that they’d drop the salary and sign someone, more probable it’d be a shakeup of player for player.
Forum: Armchair-GM19 avr. à 18 h 27
Sujet: Chych for buch lets do it
Chychrun would probably be our best left handed defenseman. But half of the fanbase also wants to trade Justin Faulk. You're essentially trading for a younger Justin Faulk. Pretty offensive minded, with some defensive capabilities but is very mistake prone.

I'm assuming you're thinking along the lines of it being if Buchnevich doesn't want to re-sign. If he doesn't due to team performance/outlook while he's in his prime, I can't imagine he would waive to go to Ottawa.

Lets also factor in that our secondary scoring in a situation like this would have to come from the backend. There are 2 players on that roster above that can consistently score at a top 6 pace 6 v 6. Kyrou and Thomas. Neighbors for as great of a season hasn't indicated that he is capable of driving a line. Schenn went on multiple stretches this year in which he did not score a goal in 10+ games. Saad is the definition of a streaky player, although he did finish down the stretch very strong which was great to see. Bolduc could conceivably take another step, but I'm not sure I would count on it just yet, even if he did look like a capable responsible scorer. Hayes is Hayes, not a top 6 guy and shouldn't be expected to be. I can't see Toropchenko having enough offense in there to be able to be counted on like that.

We direly lacked a 2nd wave of consistent scoring, while an addition of Chycrun in that fashion should help boost some of the forwards production a bit, I still don't see moving Buchnevich for Chychrun not completely obliterating any form of secondary scoring we did have.

I will say this could have legs and make sense for a couple of reasons if the Blues were able to lure a guy like Duchene or Stephenson to play 2C. But given the presser and the direction this team is pretty clearly going now I'm not sure that's an option.

I could still see a reason if the objective is to not be great next year, but there is still a belief Chychrun in our system could become more of a two-way top end guy than he has shown in the past. His age range does fit our core age range better, but you would still have to take the risk that you're signing Faulk 2.0 while you're waiting patiently for Faulk 1.0s contract to expire to reshape the defense.