Leafs already have a Core 5.

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Rielly

Rielly has been there the longest. 🤭

Thats some bad defense right there.

youre about 2 years and 2 mil short on Roy

Are you saying Roy should get 7Mx7 or was the number adjusted? What has he done to garner that type of contract? He's not even going to be the top DFD available. He'll probably get something like 5-5.5Mx4-6, maybe 6Mx5 if a team is really desperate.

No D has seen his stock rise more this season than Matt Roy.

Is he worth 6 mil?

Probably not.

But any D with a pulse gets 4 mil now.

it's brutal... but that's the Leafs style. Bad defense and pay the world to forwards haha

Substitute him for Tanev then lol. Defense wasn't really the focus here.

So, I take it that the OP had Roy signed at 4M (maybe less years too) originally?

It's now at 5Mx5, so that person's comment reads to me like he's saying Roy would get anywhere between a $39-49M contract on a 6 to 7 year deal which I don't see happening. Personally, the most I can see someone giving him is a about 36M contract unless LA signs him to a 7-year deal. I think the highest he gets is something in the low 6s. but if he gets 6.5M/year, I don't think he's getting more than 4 years. I think there's a good chance that only Pesce and maybe Skjei get total contracts that surpass 32M among UFA defenders on the open market. Forgot about Montour.

It rarely is for the Leafs. 🤔

What are you talking about? What has he done to garner that contract? How about being a very solid 2 way defender, Who is right shot which always gets a premium, plays 21 minutes a night up aganst the teams best players. with the cap rising as much as its scheduled to rise the next few years and how much it rose this year. Guys are going to get paid higher numbers then were used to seeing for guys because it goes by percentage of the cap. Matt Roy will ABSOLUTELY get 6.25-7M All day long... Just look at it... Justin Holl got 3.4M, Hanafin is getting 7.4M. So I look at Roy and the cap is going up. Roy should be just below Hanafin. theres in no world hes not worth 6.25-6.75M with the cap the way it is now.

You have to add in that theres going to be a bidding war for these defencmen as well , Theres so many teams needing a top defender this year its insane. And this year theres cap room for all of them. These are all the teams who are going to be going after the top 5 defencemen.

Utah (will get 2, my guess is Montour and Zadorov
Their top 4 will be formidable.
Zadorov-Montour
Moser-Durzi
Vaimaki- ??? )
If i were early betting I woud bet on Utah to make the playoffs this season.
Detroit
Toronto
Dallas
New Jersey
Florida
Boston
Nashvlle

Theres several more but with all these teams looking for a top 4 defencman its going to ride the prices up.
I expect Toronto to sign 1 of the top guys then settle for someone like a Carrier.

Holl getting 3.4M was no surprise to me, I was saying that he would get 3M+ from someone. I know the cap is going up and that defenseman are also asking for a lot more but there are a few things you are ignoring 1) Roy's production is going to put him like 1M below Hanifin's (and Hronek - I know he was an RFA but he was arb eligible and a year away from FA) and probably limit him to a deal that takes him to 32-34, 2) he's not the best defenseman available and Severson's C.H.% would be ~6.6M at 88M, there's a lot of money to go around but GMs are going to look at what they can get for their money upfront as well (Guentzel is supposedly seeking 8.5Mx7) and on defense there could be Montour, Pesce, and Skjei available 3) he's also not the best RHD or best shutdown RHD available, if Pesce is seeking 7M and Montour maybe 7-9M if he hits the market, why would a team want to pay Roy 6.25-6.75/7M on a 6 to 6 to 7-year deal? I do think Roy could get around a 36M total contract (6.25Mx6 for example) but that would probably be the absolute max if a team is absolutely desperate. So, maybe a team does give him 6.75-7M/year but it would likely be for four years, and not 6 or 7. Personally, I don't think Roy is worth more than 5.5Mx5/6 =27.5M-32M but I understand that he'll have a chance at getting more, but that doesn't mean he'll get anywhere near a 50M contract. So, while Roy is probably going to be the 3rd or 4th most sought defender, if anyone is giving him more than 40M contract, it's going to be a very poor signing.



As for the teams, I think UTAH will get one top 4D (Montour) and a top 6F like they said they. Getting both Montour and Zadorov will be pricey, and isn't an absolute need just yet since Valimaki can play in the top 4. Detroit probably retains Ghostisbehere and try to add another via trade. Toronto really needs two, but they probably only get one top 4D unless they get another via a Marner trade. Dallas probably retains Tanev. CAR will need two guys if they lose Skjei and Pesce, so I think they'll look to at least sign one guy. NJ could use an upgrade on D but it's not necessarily that they go make a splash. Let's just say they end up getting Pesce, that probably would make Marino available for someone else though. Florida will need to replace Montour but they won't have a whole ton of cap to work with if they retain Reinhart, they could technically still keep the both, but my guess is that they re-up OEL and maybe go for someone like Carrier or Walker that would be cheaper. Boston probably acquires Chychrun via trade. Nashville can bring in two guys, I think they get Skjei and perhaps Pesce (if he doesn't end up in NSH). The top 4D ufa class has a lot of options really, not enough but if you compare it to last year, they have a whole ton. Next year could be the same thing and the quality improved as well.

Unfortunately in Free Agency players get over paid. We will see the better defensive and offensive guys like Tanev and Montour come off the board and teams will get more desperate as they lost out on their 1A Option. Sothat will raise Roys Value.
I think were pretty close anyways you said inyour origional post you thought he was going to get 5-6 years x5.5M . Now youre saying 6.25x6 which is basically what i was saying ,6.25-7x6. It all depends on the Market as well. Places like Dallas, Nashville, Vegas, FLorida all have finacnial tax advantages when signing a player So say Toronto may have to pay Roy 6.5-6.75x6 where a team like Florida may only have to pay him 6.25x6 because of ther much better tax situation.

Originally, I was saying he probably gets 5-5.5Mx5-6 (based on what I think he's worth) or 6Mx5 on an overpay (30M or said later 32M). Those weren't really meant to be hard fast numbers, so I acknowledge that it could be more like 5.5M-6Mx4-6 or around 6Mx6 on an overpay. My main point though was just to say he won't get ~40-50M total contract, seems you're saying for Toronto he gets ~40M which I won't say is impossible if Toronto is trying to outbid other teams but it would be a desperate signing. I don't think Roy is good enough for them to pay the "Toronto UFA tax". More than likely they will try to pitch to him sponsorship opportunities. Personally, I think they only fork extra money and additional term (without getting a discount) for Pesce, not that he's a whole lot better imo. He's a year younger though, and I think he has a certain reputation in the League for being a higher-end defender.

My main reason I don't think Toronto would try to outbid other teams with a 6M+x6 deal is 1) Treliving likes to be careful with term, with Roy being 29, the ideal deal would be 4-years but in FA you typically need to give more money or term if not both so, I think the max they do is 5 years and may 6 or 7 if that brings down the AAV significantly 2) they need to be careful with the AAV since the Leafs will need another top 4D (eventually) and also need to re-sign McCabe. If they are giving Roy 6.5-6.75x6 they are going to run into problems even with Tavares' cap hit going down next year and if they trade Marner this year.

If anyone gives Roy 6.5-6.75x6, it's going to be a team like UTAH assuming they can't get a better top 4D or a top 2D (maybe they get Ekblad).

Actually Torontos thing is the "signing bonus" where most of their contracts value gets paid in "Signing bonuses" which is taxed alot less then actual income. Signing bonuses get paid upfront or at the start of every year , however alot of athletes expecially at the end of their carrers dont want all that money upfront alot of them want it deffered for when they retire so they still have money. if they sign an 8 year contract for 88M but 70 M gets paid to them in the first 3 years . that only leaves 18M over the final 5 years ,, its hard to maintain a lifestyle when your pay fluctuates like that id immagine.

It just depends if players value the money upfront or not.

If you look at whats happening in baseball now and the signing of Shohei Ohtani in Toronto had he signed here he would have had to have most of his money upfront to avoid tax.. Instead he signed in LA where he was able to defer alot of his money to like the 2030s when hes no longer playing he will still get paid.

Right, can't forget signing bonuses. Roy wouldn't get most of his money in the form of signing bonuses like a Toronto Star but he'll probably get at least 30% of his money as a bonus which is a significant amount.

I think even if he doesn't want his money upfront, they would front-load the contract a bit so that they are paying less in real salary later in the deal (easier to dump if needed).