I doubt he would waive there

He might. They have a lot of promising young players & prospects, a ton of picks, and cap space that they are probably willing to spend to improve. They have the tools to try to become competitive sooner rather than later, the question will be if players will give them a chance or not. I don't think they would be viewed the same as Arizona. He's also likely to get paid well.

Sure but I just don't see Marner waiving anywhere that isn't a playoff team now or has state tax. I highly doubt he is traded within the division so if I had to make a list of teams he will waive to it would be
Dallas
Vegas
LA
Seattle
Nashville
Carolina
NYI
NYR

Maybe Winnipeg or Vancouver but unlikely

I think his top destinations would be Vegas, Florida (doubt the Leafs send him there), and Carolina. Nashville might be a place he considers too but I feel like they are the older version of Utah, they have some pieces to compete now but not all, he'll likely end up in a rebuild in the later part of his contract if he extends. Seattle's situation is probably a mix of Utah and the reverse of NSH (have the supporting cast to compete but not the core). Carolina is probably a perfect fit, but I question if Waddell will be able to get a deal done. I think Vegas is the most likely team to acquire him, then Utah, then Carolina.

I think from a tax perspective playing in Utah is comparable to some of the better tax states. NYR has no cap and is a high tax state so don't see it happening unless Panarin is waiving for TOR. LA also a high-tax state that doesn't have a whole lot of cap, they can probably make it work but I think they'll spend their money different since they have some important RFAs coming up and bigger needs than a top-6 winger. NYI are similar to those mentioned, they could make a trade but it's going to be difficult since it would require multiple NTC/M-NTC coming off of the Isles book. I think they got their top-6 addition with Tysplakov. Dallas would likely be the best place for him to go, but there's no space for him there, and they probably don't want him either. I think there's zero chance he goes to WPG, and I don't see him picking Vancouver (high-taxes) over Utah either even though they got a great team.

I think he could absolutely fit in Dallas. AFAIK Pavelski is retiring after this season so he would slide into that spot. Just like with Vegas though they would need a 3rd team to retain. Also Benn's contract is up in a year so they can probably afford an extension.

If they can get someone to retain on him then sure they can fit him this year cap-wise and if they play their hand right, should be able to sign-all their guys. Pavelski retiring does open up the roster spot. The real question is who are they giving up for him? I don't think the Leafs are going to deal Marner to them for a futures package when they are a top contender already, unless they are getting a prime asset like a 1RD. Dallas is doing just fine so don't think they would go pay a premium to acquire Marner, if they want to add a top-6 F, they probably go for someone like Necas or Buchnevich.

Their offer would probably be Dellandrea + a 1st + Marchement, don't think TOR takes that even if they might be interested in those pieces, unless they add more than just Pesce on the backend. Bertuzzi would probably be gone if they get Marchement

As a Flames fan I wouldn't have much issue retaining on Marner post bonus if Toronto was interested in Markstrom+, then Calgary gets the futures package from Dallas

I think if Dallas wins the cup this year, then there's little to no chance that they trade for Marner since it will be difficult to retain the guys that they already have once they need contracts. Even without winning, I'm not sure that Dallas will be willing to give much more than a rental package for Marner and the ask on Markstrom sound rather high. However, if DAL were willing to do something like Mavrik Bourque + Dellandrea + Marchement + a conditional 2026 2nd (turns into a 1st if DAL wins the Cup in 2025 or 2026) for Marner + Robertson. Then the Leafs give a Bourque + a 3rd (would have said a 2nd but Leafs don't got one) for Markstrom (no retention) and Dallas gives a pick to CGY for retention on Marner. I think the Flames would want a bit if they are getting like a 3rd to retain might be worthwhile. Not really sure how much Bourque is valued but he looks NHL-ready based on his AHL-stats and was a top-50 prospect (28th) according to Button. He ranks him as a B prospect, but he also has Shane Wright as one as well. THW had him as the 13th best prospect.

CGY: Bourque + 2026 3rd (Tor) + 2025 3rd Dallas
DAL: Marner (50% retention - 5.45M) + Robertson
TOR + Markstrom (6M) + Marchement (4.75M) + conditional 2026 2nd (turns into a 1st if DAL wins the Cup in 2025 or 2026) + Dellandrea

I feel that the trade is suboptimal for CGY (although Bourque sounds like he has a ton of value and fills a need), high-rental price for DAL who is probably not that desperate to add Marner (unless they get demolished in RD3 or 4), and the Leafs do well all things considered.

Marchement-Matthews-Domi
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
McMann - Holmberg - Dellandrea
Dewar - Kampf - Jarnkrok

Rielly - Pesce Markstrom
Benoit - McCabe Woll
Edmundson - Liljegren

Scratched: Reaves, Timmins