incredible overpay for a 35 year old goalie likely a top 10 pick Holtz and Stillman is crazy and unheard of for any goalie let alone one of his age

Obviously if we can get him for less I'm all for it

Calgary accepts.

His most valuable year is gone. I wouldn't even offer a 1st for him unretained anymore

The greatest tragedy of the Devils trade deadline is that we have six more months of bad Markstrom trades.

Markstrom's value just tanked.

My valuation was: 10 mill this year
6 mill next year
4 mill 25-26

We could have gotten him for a lot less this year.

I think it would be a flatter slope…don’t think it will decline that sharply. The biggest ding on his value will be (2 years instead of 3) and that he is likely not happy there.

It’s not that it’s a steep decline per se it’s that this year was a historical career year that Markstrom has never gotten to before and almost certainly never will reach again, considering he hasn’t really in any other year of his career

Then future year predictions are based off his historical play, age, mileage, etc

What units of valuation are used (based on projections)…I don’t think year 2 will be 60% of this year, nor year 3 being 40% of this year. I think will more likely be something like…

1: 100%
2: 90%
3: 85%

Goalie volatility is steep and unpredictable. I don’t view this year as 100% as much as I view it as like 140%.

Based on his career numbers I’d say he’s about a 6 mill goalie. So maybe like 5.5 mill next year, 5 mill in 25-26, with LARGE standard deviations on that projection.

That unpredictability would be built in to any year…even for balance of this season.

I agree but had to give some additional weight to this year. Main point is, at this point, virtually ALL of Markstroms value comes from how much Calgary would retain