Hall has a full NTC, Hanifin can only block 8 teams. You sound like the Habs fans that said they were 100% getting Dubois. Or when Blues fans were 100% convinced they were getting Matthew Tkachuk. Calgary will work with Hanifin to an extent to send him somewhere he wants but if the return isn't as good as someone else will offer them to simply be a rental they will choose the rental route

I believe there was a longer conversion/exchanging of ideas going back months between the two GMs. Conroy named a specific price on Markstrom and told Fitzy, he wasn’t going to approach the goalie, who had full NMC, until that price was met. Fitzy eventually relented and made an offer with Conroy’s desired piece included.

it was a two-part deal. Fitzy was okay overpaying on one piece (Markstrom) because he felt like he could make it up elsewhere in second piece (Hanifin).

Something like:
(1) Holtz for Markstrom (~$2m retained) (as been reported)
(2) Bahl plus picks for Hanifin (ballpark guess)

Part one met Conroy’s ask, so Conroy went to get Markstrom’s waiver. Markstrom waived his NTC. When Conroy got back to Fitzy, he said, “we approve part one…but will want to market to beat part two”. Fitzy said, “no deal, it’s both or nothing”. So we waited as CGY collected offers on Hanifin from BOS, FLA, TBL (maybe others) in case they beat what NJD had in part two. Conroy preferred one of those deals to NJD’s offer. Since there was only one bid for Markstrom from NJD, who wanted combo deal, when Conroy told NJD no on Hanifin portion, he essentially was taking Markstrom off the market. He then announced Markstrom would remain for rest of season (and he would narrow in on Hanifin offers).

Markstrom, who had thought he was going to be traded to New Jersey, then became upset at that news. He was now being told to stay (after he had lost half his blueline and and had once believed he would shortly become a Devil). In his next Media Availability, he says he is unhappy with how Conroy handled situation.

Conroy realized his star was unhappy, gets back on phone with Fitzy send asks for a price on Markstrom alone (without retention). Fitzy said he will do Markstrom without retention (but would pay less for Hanifin). Markstrom’s agent tells LeBrun that Fitzy is willing to pay for Markstrom without retention to put pressure on Conroy to move his client.

Hence, here we are. Same place as few days ago. Fitzy wants both, will forego retention on Markstrom, but will lower price on Hanifin below what Conroy wants (probably a return without a 2024 1st round pick since none of the competitors, BOS, FLA, TBL, own a 2024 1st round pick).

Conroy has to decide to sell Markstrom at 100 cents on dollar along with Hanifin at 90 cents on dollar….or just sell Hanifin at 100 cents on dollar (and keep Markstrom)

That is quite an elaborate prediction. And you are welcome to believe whatever you want, but I think you are still completely out to lunch on most of this.
- Your prediction on the original Markstrom trade is absolutely wrong. Holtz has value but Calgary is not desperate enough for a winger that they would retain on Markstrom for Holtz alone. There was certainly a pick attached, at least a 2nd and very possibly a 1st
- A package around Bahl for Hanifin? Bahl is not worth that much, he is the throw-in piece in a Hanifin deal
- Markstrom did think he was staying in New York during that road trip but a trade never happened. The defensemen being traded is irrelevant. He is unhappy because the fact that he waived his NMC got leaked. It caused stress in the dressing room. Take Kuzmenko for example. Nobody found out he waived his clause until the trade was announced, But he was asked to waive multiple days in advance as Calgary was given permission to talk to him.
- Conroy is not desperate to move Markstrom. All the reports are that Fitzy made the call to reengage in negotiations, this is the quote from LeBrun - "After a failed trade attempt a few weeks ago, I’m told New Jersey reached out again to the Calgary Flames this week to say it was still interested in the 34-year-old netminder. And in fact, I believe the Devils are now willing to make that trade without the Flames having to retain salary, which was a sticking point last time around (or at least the asset cost on retaining salary was)."
- Calgary is not limited to trading Hanifin to those 3 teams. Hanifin as very little control over his destination but as I said in a previous post Calgary will help him go to where he wants up until those offers stop being better than teams looking to simply rent him. They haven't given him permission to talk to anyone yet but they very likely will. To continue this point, there has been very little linkage between Hanifin and Jersey over the last month or so. With the return of Siegenthaler I highly doubt NJD would pull the trigger on Hanifin.

Markstrom --

You mixing in old with new on Markstrom piece.

Old: Holtz in a deal for Markstrom. Retention was the hold up (likely the cost of retention) and the trade was otherwise agreed to.

New: The trade was Holtz for Markstrom with $2m in retention (per Friedman, Pagnotta, even a Flames reporter have said)

Honestly, I have seen all sorts of combinations in Markstrom deal from Calgary fans and I have always asked for a source. “Mercer+Casey+1st” was one another fan said that Fitzy offered and Conroy rejected. “Holtz+1st” seems to be a common one. There has not been one single report of those packages…and many of it being Holtz alone or Holtz plus minor piece to cover retention.

If Markstrom was frustrated with his name being out there, why has he not addresses in last few weeks? And if his frustration was solely around all the talk/rumors, it’s pretty damning evidence that the leaks were from Calgary side, no? But the real question is why does he wait to air his frustration until after being told, “you’re staying”? The most logical conclusion is, “because he wants to go”.

(On which side has been responsible for “leaks”…it’s not from Devils side. Fitzy runs a tight ship…and there have never been leaks before. Many of his moves have come at total surprise. If anything, he has a history of leading breadcrumbs in wrong direction while he pursues his target. It appears all of the leaks in this account appear to have come from CGY side).

Hanifin --

On the Hanifin trade part, I have no idea what the pieces were (Bahl+ is just a guess). Another Flames fan said Calgary has zero interest in Casey (but I have not seen that anywhere). Could be a player off the roster…maybe a couple pieces…I have no idea. Let’s call the Hanifin’s return, “TBD package”.

Fitzy was likely putting Holtz on table for Markstrom….only if he got Hanifin for TBD package. He was not offering as two separate deals. Otherwise, there is no reason the Markstrom side would not have gotten done.

I am also guessing that by the list of teams…by the list that has been reported to be interested in Hanifin….and that he is interested in extending with….BOS, FLA, NJD, TBL. NJD has the deepest prospect pool and best picks.

2024 picks
-- BOS: 128, 160, 192
-- FLA: 97, 129, 146, 161, 193, 225
-- NJD: 14, 79, 143, 155, 175
-- TBL: 83, 147, 179, 194, 202, 211

The pick values of entire draft boards
-- BOS: 0.7 (2025: ~4.7)
-- FLA: 1.5 (2025: ~3.4)
-- NJD: 7.4 (2025: ~6.8)
-- TBL: 1.6 (2025 ~2.9)

In fact, NJD 1st round pick this year is worth more than each of these teams entire 2024 and 2025 draft slates. Our pick is currently 10th according to Tankathon, 13th according to CapFriendly.

So if 1st offered in this deal, one would think NJD has advantage if teams limited to those four. But Conroy has clearly been looking for young players over picks (based on previous trades).

If true, you are confirming all the leaks have been coming from CGY side.

Which runs counter to the whole narrative that “Fitzy is desperate”…and would make it more likely that pressure is on Conroy to move him.

I mean it was the CalgaryPuck people who were saying the trade talk picked up and a deal was almost done. More than likely they were more connected with Calgary than Jersey.

I have no idea how that is relevant to who is desperate. Again, LeBrun said Fitz called Calgary back

Based on the fanbases I can say 1 side is much more desperate to get this deal done and it certainly isn't NJD fans

Lol what? Calgary fans are more than happy keeping Markstrom so that's not true at all

But fans are not players, coaches or GM's so their opinion is irrelevant.

"When you get saves it's much easier to win" - Jack Hughes
"I thought our goalies really struggled in this one" - Lindy Ruff

those are the relevant people voicing their opinions

I was more pushing back, generally, to the “Fitzy is desperate, so will overpay” narrative that seems to be so common from Calgary fans. It runs counter to everything we know about Fitzgerald. (If anything, Fitzy is not desperate enough).

It’s also important to understand the culture in Devils front office. They do not leak. They do not think short-term. Don’t make big moves in reaction. Their owners come from Private Equity, a very slow, methodical and hands-on business of investing into normally 7-year windows. Those are the guys Fitzy reports to.

Yeah but he also has the power to tell teams he's not going to extend and that limits the options as a rental.

We'll see though.

No it just makes him a rental

He is a rental. There is one market. One price. It’s not one price for rental Hanifin, another price for extended Hanifin. It’s just one price (presumedly the highest price). He can block to 8-teams.

My guess is that the ‘he will only sign in these places’ is just gamesmanship from GMs. If this is really down to BOS, FLA, TBL…there are probably two games going on here (one, getting the player…and two, driving up the price if you don’t get the player). I would not be surprised to see at least one of those teams making noise just to put the heat on their rivals (and no real intention of adding the player). Happens all the time (Devils did it with Gaudreau and PHI, NYI).