McDavid and a veteran minimum/replacement level player or Jack Hughes and Elias Pettersson/Quinn Hughes/Adam Fox/Heiskanen/any player you want not named McDavid Makar Matthews or Mackinnon? Who would you rather have? I have McDavid as high as 25 mill (Jack Hughes+number 1 dman), I just think as good as he is, and I think he is the best hockey player in the world, there is a limit to what 1 player can provide.

Totally fair and looking at their stats, I redact the much. Petterson is better but not much better.

Based on the normal development curve jack should get better. it's a valid base of opinion for a 22 year old. Go look at the 21-22 year old numbers for all the leagues top superstars. Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Makar. Then go look at Jacks production.

McDavid over the next 3 years will provide significantly more value than Jack. But then his contract ends.
You could make the argument (and this would only apply to McDavid and no other player in the league) that McDavid is worth more than the NHL maximum allowable salary of I believe what will be 20 mill when his conract expires, but then the problem with that is he can go anywhere. I can offer mcdavid the league maximum even if I don't trade for him. And it's tough to quantify the likilihood and value of a contract extension that cannot even begun to be negotiated for 2 years

I would rather have Hughes and Petterson than McDavid, agreed.

But then you're looking at Hughes (8MM) + Petterson (8MM) or McDavid (12.5MM).

So the question isn't Pettersson + Hughes or McDavid + rookie. It is Pettersson + Hughes or McDavid + Carter Verhaeghe

So then when you factor in Hughes being younger and having 7 years term at 8 million, vs pettersson who has no contract and will likely be making 1.5 times what Hughes is, it is not unreasonable to say Hughes is more valuable (not better)

If you come at it from a value standpoint, I would agree. Hughes is probably equal in value to Petterson once Petterson starts his next contract.

That is fair.

Totally fair and I think the disconnect is that you're looking over McDavid as this AND next contract. Maybe in 4 years Hughes will have the best contract in the NHL, but right now it is McDavid.

uhhhhhhhhhhhh

I wouldn't trade Petterson for Hughes straight up.

Petterson is a much better player.

Valuations:
Pettersson 16 mill AAV over the next 9 years: Total cost 107.3 million, Total value 144 Million
Demko 10 mill AAV over the next 3 years: 50% retained total cost 7.5 million, total value 30 million

Jack: 16 mill AAV over the next 7 years: total cost 56 million, Total value 112 million

Overall

NJD side: 56 mill in surplus value
Van side: 59.2 mill in surplus value

absolutely silly way to look at it. your are basing a decision today on projected values multiple years away.

canucks obviously decline this

You’re right there’s the other factors such as:

Jack being the face of our franchise.
Jack being one of the most profitable players in the league in terms of generating revenue for his team.
Pettersson potentially not wanting to resign in Vancouver giving them even less leverage and lowering his value significantly.


All of which lean further towards NJD passing.

pettersson and vacnouver are currently very close on a deal. he is also the face of the franchise but in a bigger market than jack

As a Canucks fan, I do find it funny when my peers trade Petey for Hughes. Hughes is a similar level of player, on a way better contract. I would never give that up as NJ. So I can definitely agree with the NJD fans in this thread.

With that said, the OP stating that Demko's most valuable seasons are behind him from a contract perspective is kind of wild, particularly if you want the Canucks to retain half. Demko at $2.5m might be the best value contract in hockey for the next 2 years after this one.

That is my main qualm with the OP, and the inclusion of Demko tilts this trade way too far in one direction. You guys (NJD fans), of all people, should know the value of a good goalie.

Jack Hughes Skill >> Petterson
Jack Hughes Contract >>>> Petterson
Jack Hughes Age >> Petterson

Well no. I have the stats on a previous page but Petterson is more talented than Hughes and they are 3 year apart in age.
I would say:
Skill: Petterson > Hughes
Contact: Hughes > Petterson
Age is a wash.

Based on the normal development curve jack should get better. it's a valid base of opinion for a 22 year old. Go look at the 21-22 year old numbers for all the leagues top superstars. Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Makar. Then go look at Jacks production.

I’m saying this season is Demkos most valuable. He’s at by far the highest level he’s played at in his career. There’s not really much further up to go, and i could argue with goalie volatility he’s likely to regress at least somewhat next year

Basically I don’t think Demko will be as good next year as he currently is.

And even at the same level, going from 3 years of term down to 2 is quite meaningful.

And in this I have 3 years of demko at 10 million valued at 22.5 million or about 4 1sts.

Overall for the package I would offer 10 1st round picks of value.

Sure but there are also lots of guys who have this type of production who don't become superstars. Just because a guy has a good trajectory doesn't mean he will achieve it. In fact, the odds are that he won't.

Why do you think Demko has peaked? I don't see the rational there...

McDavid and a veteran minimum/replacement level player or Jack Hughes and Elias Pettersson/Quinn Hughes/Adam Fox/Heiskanen/any player you want not named McDavid Makar Matthews or Mackinnon? Who would you rather have? I have McDavid as high as 25 mill (Jack Hughes+number 1 dman), I just think as good as he is, and I think he is the best hockey player in the world, there is a limit to what 1 player can provide.

Age is absolutely not a wash. If you want some proof of that just go look at pettersson's numbers at age 21 and 22

McDavid makes $12.5M in real AAV. How are you doing Jack Hughes at $8M AAV plus any of the guys you mention? You're not.

Again man, you're looking at 5 data points and extrapolating from there.

This is what you're doing:
Hughes Point totals per game:
2019: 0.33
2020: 0.55
2021: 1.14
2022: 1.26
2023: 1.27
Then speculating
2024: 1.75
2025: 1.95
2026: 2.16
2027: 2.40
Etc.

It is more likely he plateaus or gets hurt than keeps getting 10 - 20% better every year.

I was talking about value provided.

You claimed McDavid was worth 31 million dollars.

I have Jack at 16 as I stated, same with Pettersson as I stated and same with everyone in that range outside of Mack and Makar who I have around 20 mill and Matthews around 18 mill.

I imagine the confusion on your side is not considering the value of term.

McDavid's contract has 3 years left. Jack's has 7.

McDavid will provide much more surplus value in these 3 years. But then his contract ends, meanwhile you will still have 4 years of jack hughes from ages 25-29 (his prime), making 8 mill AAV out of a salary cap that's probably approaching 100 mill now. And Jack will provide all that surplus value back and more