And then 3 years from now its
25-29 year Jack Hughes at 8 million>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>any 8 million dollar player you can pick up in UFA. (If elias lindholm is looking 8+ now for his age 30-37 seasons, imagine how little you'll be able to get for 8 mill when the cap is 100 mill)

for the 4 years after that.

Taylor Hall was a beast at 22 with 80 points on a terrible Oiler team. He fell off a cliff at 27.

Eric Lindros had 115 points at 23, he fell off 5 years later.

Toews looked like a lock for the HOF at 22. He was never as good after 25 (with the exception of one great year).

Evander Kane went from being the next great thing with 30 goals and 60 points on a terrible Thrashers team to just being a guy.

I'm not saying Hughes will be not good, but you can't say he will be great. He is 22. There is plenty of time for him to fall off. It's hard to be great for your whole career.

Ok...Blues have Robert Thomas signed to basically same contract as Hughes, and his production is similar to Hughes. Never would I say he has more value than McDavid. Not saying Thomas is as good as Hughes also, but the delta from Thomas to Hughes is smaller than the delta from Hughes to McDavid...

Sp you expect Hughes to be more than 40 goals and 105 points? There were less than 10 players in the last 2 years with >105 points.

Hughes needs a lot of steps forward to be that. He is currently great, but if I had to bet, I think this is right around his peak.

Eric Lindros was an elite HOFer who had his career decimated by injuries. The same could happen to pettersson, or mcdavid, or hughes.

Jonathan Toews didn't surpass a PPG at 21 or 22.

Evander Kane again never reached anything resembling what Jack hughes has done

Halls production was again levels below what Hughes is doing at that age.

You can say Hughes will be great. He is great today, right now. Pettersson could fall off too.

Hughes is younger, still in his development window, and just as good as pettersson is today. And again has a much cheaper contract.

Robert Thomas has a career high of 20 goals, has never surpassed 80 points, and is just slightly above a PPG the last 2 years. He is in no way comparable to Jack Hughes, and yet he makes more.

Over the last 2 years:

Goals per game:
Hughes: 0.5
McDavid (at jack's age): 0.51
McDavid: 0.62
Thomas: 0.29


Points per game:
McDavid: 1.8
McDavid (at jack's age): 1.4
Hughes: 1.27
Thomas: 1.00

If Robert Thomas was making 4.5 million dollars less a year than Jack Hughes, had 7 years of term compared to Jack having 3, and was 4 years younger than Jack, yes Robert Thomas would be more valuable.

Instead:
Robert Thomas makes more than Jack Hughes, has significantly worse production, and is 2 years older

Yes. Now you're hopefully starting to understanding how ridiculously impressive it is that Jack Hughes has that level of production at age 21 and 22. He is a top 10 player in hockey already.

"Jack hughes needs a lot of steps forward to be what he has been already". You make no logical sense.

Assuming a 22 year old is at his peak lol.

Here's some context. Over the next 7 years, assuming a 18 mill AAV (max) next contract for McDavid. He will make 109 million dollars.
Jack Hughes will make 56 million dollars. That means Jack Hughes would make 43 million Dollars less.

To put that into Robert Thomas vs Jack, that would be Robert thomas at an AAV of 1.85 million dollars for the next 7 years.

Significantly worse production again is smaller delta than Hughes to McDavid....also your data range is quite convenient

Over the current year 23-24:
Goals per game:
Hughes: 0.44
McDavid: 0.40
Thomas: 0.34

Points per game:
McDavid: 1.71
Hughes: 1.28
Thomas: 1.15

Career points per game:
McDavid: 1.51
Hughes: 0.91
Thomas: 0.80

Demko may not be as good next year, but between this season and 21-22, he has been elite 2 of his 3 seasons since becoming a starter (e.g. one of the top 5-7 goalies in the league), with injuries derailing the other. Even if he does regress a bit next year due to goalie volatility, he will still be a very efficient contract and will likely still be an elite goaltender for at least the next several years, particularly if paired with Ian Clark. The fact that you appear to think this is a one-off makes me think you don't really track the Canucks that well...Demko is legit, and often one of the core drivers of the Canucks results.

All that to say, Vancouver never considers this trade as constructed. Even without the retention on Demko. It would cripple the team in net in the short term. Doesn't matter how good Hughes' contract is.

Also, I think Hughes' injury tendency is being overlooked in his valuation. I love the guy. But he hasn't shown the consistent ability to be available for a full season. If we're talking about volatility of performance

Career numbers for a 22 year old who entered the league as a teenager lol.

Again, you seem to keep forgetting the part that Jack Hughes is still developing. And the fact that he has 7 years on his contract, McDavid has 3.

I agree that the gap between McDavid and Hughes (9 mill AAV imo), is smaller than the gap between hughes and Robert Thomas (6 mill AAV)

Hughes: 16 mill
McDavid: 25 mill
Thomas: 10 mill

Now tell me. Would you trade Robert Thomas 75% retained for Connor McDavid? (2 mill AAV for the next 8 years)

I can also do % of team's games played but you're not going to like that result...

Guess how old Robert Thomas and McDavid were when they entered the league...JESUS

Yeah. Now go look at McDavid's production at that age, Robert Thomas production at that age, and Jack Hughes production now and tell me about the gap.

Thomas: 0.21 GPG, 0.85 PPG
Jack: 0.5 GPG, 1.27 PPG
McDavid: 0.5 GPG, 1.4 PPG

The fact that you tried to equate 25 year old Thomas with 22 year old Hughes is ridiculous.

I'm not saying Thomas is Jack Hughes or McDavid. This entire convo started because you were bragging that Hughes was so much more of a bargain than McDavid. Congrats on winning the bargain contest - let's see how many games that wins your team now...and again, anyone would take McDavid and his contract over Hughes besides yourself.

Thomas also came into a situation where he was a 3rd line player and has worked his way up to a first line role. This is the first full year he has been true 1st line center without ROR around and gets true 1st unit PP time for full season. The year you are comparing above is not an apples to apples comparison.

If you can't beat out old ass ROR that's not a point in Robert Thomas' favour.

I simply stated that Jack Hughes having 7 years at an absolute bargain rate is the best contract in hockey.

You then failed to understand the concept of term, age, development, and surplus value at every turn

But hey here's another comparable.

You're offered Sam Reinhart for Robert Thomas, 1 for 1. Do you accept? No, because reinhart, despite being better than thomas and having much more value this year, doesn't have TERM. And so over the long haul thomas will provide more value

No because I think Thomas is a better player. If he got to play with a Barkov and/or Tkachuk, his point total would mirror or surpass Jack Hughes..

If you need to play with another player to boost your numbers, you are a passenger not a driver. Are Buchnevich and Kyrou not good enough wingers??

Just needs 2 top 20 players in the league around him, and THEN he can maybe catch 22 year old Jack Hughes in ppg

He doesn't need to play with anyone. Reinhart was a 50-65 point player before he went to Florida. That's who you asked about. If Thomas was on Florida - he definitely would have 100 points.

Kyrou picks and chooses which games he wants to try hard in. Buch is a great player, but not a superstar. And the defense as a whole is sub-par.

Anyway, maybe one day you'll understand the concept of term and being able to look beyond the immediate present

And the fact that you make comments like this shows that you don't understand why some teams win and have success in the playoffs and others haven't in a long long time...

Because one team led by Lou kept looking into the immediate present instead of planning for the future and set the team back a half decade when the window had ended and it was clearly time to rebuild and kept the team in a state of mediocrity while decimating the future pool and roster?