Pass, i don’t see Boston moving Lohrei.

Mercer is not on the table. Mercer has more value alone than Markstrom. Mercer is a 22 year old stud who does everything for the Devils. He’s not going anywhere

Zero chance in hell that Craig Conroy is eating $16,000,000 between Kadri and Markstrom. He's not retaining on a single one of those players.

Devils pass. Mercer not on the table

Can't see CAL or COL doing the Kadri deal. No way CAL eats $10M on Kadri.

Get real COL isn’t doing that, COL isn’t doing Byram for that alone. COL chose Lehkonen, Nichushkin and Manson over Kadri they aren’t going to pay a massive premium to bring him back 2 years later.

1. sign and trades are so absurdly rare that they aren't even worth discussing
2. it's lohrei or a first. not both.

I believe the deal as outlined really is more than Boston should pay. It’s kind of weighing the risk that he doesn’t make it to free agency vs the upside of the players given.

What would Calgary have to include to make this deal feasible?

1. Brett Harrison (former third round pick) for a second round pick in 2024 . Harrison produced in the OHL and has shown some development potential at Providence. I’d consider that.

2. Calgary adds a 3rd rounder in 2024, but I probably wouldn’t do it for that.

Otherwise, I think it is Lohrei or a first in 25, a 2nd in 2026, and a prospect or two not named Lysell or Poitras. If they say no, Boston takes the risk that he makes it to free agency

Just curious, how other people evaluate prospects before they hit the AHL?

1. I try to give former first round picks the benefit of the doubt until they hit the AHL level as long as they are producing at expected level. A bad AHL stint can reset expectations quickly, If they maintain production levels, they should be more attractive than most players drafted outside of the best of the best.

2. I tend to focus on junior production skeptically for non first rounders until they hit the AHL level. I’ve seen too many players struggle with the adjustment, but a 2nd or 3rd rounder who shows they can maintain junior or college production in the AHL likely was a steal.

3. Undrafted or lower drafted players who produce in the AHL should not be ignored, but they need to have developed plus NHL tools and most of the time they have a deficiency that prevents them from emerging into a top 2 liner or they would have been picked higher

4. Most of a players failures as they move up are based on what they can’t do vs what they can’t, so pay attention to flaws

5. I’d rather have a player who has produced at the AHL level than a pick because they are easier to project, but that’s only if you don’t believe waivers will be an issue in the future