I’d rather get a 2nd and a prospect

Probably costs more. Tarasenko at $3.75M (alongside Mikkola, a depth 3rd pairing D) fetched a 1st, 3rd, Blais and a C-tier prospect just last year coming off of 29 P in 38 GP.

At 50% he'd be worth $2.5M and has 19 P in 24 GP, which is a similar pace. A mid prospect and a 3rd is not enough, especially when it's fair to assume there would be a bidding war for him.

Ottawa easily gets 7 offers that blow this pittance away. Still think they make a run at signing him though

If he's on track for 65-70 points at the deadline I'd offer him 5.5x2.

Similar to the Kuzmenko deal.

GMs don't typically pay much for guys who have signed one-year deals. See; Tatar, Klingberg, Domi, etc.