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Interesting development on Klingberg by Dreger

Créé par: Brad_Treliving
Équipe: 2023-24 Maple Leafs de Toronto
Date de création initiale: 22 nov. 2023
Publié: 22 nov. 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
Darren Dreger on overdrive basically said that the Leafs are trying to make Klingberg "disappear" whether its through trade or LTIR
Transactions
TOR
  1. Tanev, Christopher (2 250 000 $ retained)
  2. Zadorov, Nikita (1 750 000 $ retained)
CGY
  1. Abruzzese, Nick
  2. Niemelä, Topi
  3. Choix de 1e ronde en 2024 (TOR)
  4. Choix de 3e ronde en 2024 (NYI)
  5. Choix de 5e ronde en 2024 (TOR)
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24 nov. 2023 à 12 h 47
#76
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Modifié 24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 17
Quoting: RipNasty
I am eagerly awaiting this math

Okay, here we go, you ready!? I'm gonna work off of Zadorov's Regular Season career as a Flame:

2021-22: 4G+18A=22PTS/74GP (=0.30PPG) w/ just 16:55ATOI of which 15:57/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTOI and 0:46PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0188/EVPPM
2022-23: 14G+7A=21PTS/82GP (0.26PPG) w/ just 18:41ATOI of which 16:18/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTPI and 2:10PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0160/EVPPM
2023-24: 11G+5A=6PTS/18GP (=0.33PPG) w/ just 18:14ATOI of which 16:32/EVTOI, 0:09/PPTOI and 1:32PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0200/EVPPM
Zadorov's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0183/EVPPM

Relevant Comparisons:
Liljegren 2021-22: 5G+18A=23PTS/61GP (0.38PPG/0.34EVPPG) w/ just 16:24ATOI of which 15:02/EVTOI, 0:17/PPTOI and 1:03PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0226/EVPPM
Liljegren 2022-23: 6G+12A=18PTS/67GP (0.27PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ just 17:55ATOI of which 15:59/EVTOI, 0:29/PPTOI and 1:26PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.01375/EVPPM
Liljegren 2023-24: 0G+1A/1PT/10GP (0.10PPG/0.00EVPPG) w/ just 17:56ATOI of which 15:13/EVTOI, 0:53/PPTOI and 1:47PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.000/EVPPM
NOTE: Young Players are supposed to Improve over time, not Decline. Also notice Liljegren has never been able to play a full season and unlike Zadorov receives some PP Time Liljegren's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0121/EVPPM

Brodie: 2021-22: 4G+24A=28PTS/82GP (0.34PPG/0.30EVPPG) w/ 21:19ATOI of which 18:51/EVTOI, 0:10/PPTOI and 2:16PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0159/EVPPM
Brodie: 2022-23: 2G+12A=14PTS/58GP (0.24PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ 21:13ATOI of which 18:11/EVTOI, 0:05/PPTOI and 2:56PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0121/EVPPM
Brodie: 2023-24: 0G+2A=2PTS/17GP (0.11PPG/0.11EVPPG) w/ 22:27ATOI of which 19:12/EVTOI, 0:03/PPTOI and 3:11PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0057/EVPPM
Brodie's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0112/EVPPM

So using the Even Strength Scoring Factor and a Full 82GP Season, here's what Zadorov may have scored given the same Top-4 Even Strength TOI as, say:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0183EVSF = 0.35EVPPG x 82GP = 28-29 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.183 EVSF = 0.31EVPPG x 82GP = 26-27 Even Strength Points

Now let's do the same thing and compare Liljegren's:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.23EVPPG x 82GP = 18-19 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.206EVPPG x 82GP = 16-17 Even Strength Points

Clearly Zadorov is the More Consistent and Productive Offensive Defensemen at Even Strength than both Liljegren & Brodie and if given more ice time in a Top-4 Role, which he deserves, he would be a 25-30+ Point Even Strength Contributor. Give him some Power Play Time and that could increase to 40PTS+/0.50PPG+ results (I'd put him right in front of the Goalie myself). NOW, at least Brodie Kills Penalties, but Liljegren doesn't. What Zadorov does that they BOTH don't do though, is throw HEAVY Hits and Drop the Gloves, which increases his value substantially as well

So you and @Kinger25 can continue to claim he's just a 3rd Pairing D-Man, who's no better than Luke Schenn, that's fine, but as shown above, continuing to do so would be completely naive and ignorant. I mean, if you just want a Big Goon who can Kill Penalties, Block Shots, Hit and Drop the Gloves, go pay a 3rd+ for a $2-4mil/yr Player, like Schenn

But if you want the BIGGER, BETTER, STRONGER Zadorov who can also Score and Contribute Offensively just as much as a 1st Pairing D-Man and who's currently suggested to be worth around $5mil/yr+ on his next contract (comparable to Chiarot's/$4.75mil, Brodie's/$5mil, Gavrikov's/$5.875, Pelech's/$5.75, Cernak's/$5.25, R.Grave's/$4.5), that's literally gonna cost you a 1st with retention or a 2nd++ without retention. This is what all the "Hockey Insider's" are saying too, simply because he's improved substantially since joining the Flames and he's clearly NOT just a 3rd Pairing D-Man anymore, whereas Liljegren is and likely will forever be and both McCabe & Brodie are heading that direction now as well
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 24
#77
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Okay, here we go, you ready!? I'm gonna work off of Zadorov's Regular Season career as a Flame:

2021-22: 4G+18A=22PTS/74GP (=0.30PPG) w/ just 16:55ATOI of which 15:57/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTOI and 0:46PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0188/EVPPM
2022-23: 14G+7A=21PTS/82GP (0.26PPG) w/ just 18:41ATOI of which 16:18/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTPI and 2:10PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0160/EVPPM
2023-24: 11G+5A=6PTS/18GP (=0.33PPG) w/ just 18:14ATOI of which 16:32/EVTOI, 0:09/PPTOI and 1:32PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0200/EVPPM
Zadorov's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0183/EVPPM

Relevant Comparisons:
Liljegren 2021-22: 5G+18A=23PTS/61GP (0.38PPG/0.34EVPPG) w/ just 16:24ATOI of which 15:02/EVTOI, 0:17/PPTOI and 1:03PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0226/EVPPM
Liljegren 2022-23: 6G+12A=18PTS/67GP (0.27PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ just 17:55ATOI of which 15:59/EVTOI, 0:29/PPTOI and 1:26PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.01375/EVPPM
Liljegren 2023-24: 0G+1A/1PT/10GP (0.10PPG/0.00EVPPG) w/ just 17:56ATOI of which 15:13/EVTOI, 0:53/PPTOI and 1:47PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.000/EVPPM
NOTE: Young Players are supposed to Improve over time, not Decline. Also notice Liljegren has never been able to play a full season and unlike Zadorov receives some PP Time Liljegren's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0121/EVPPM

Brodie: 2021-22: 4G+24A=28PTS/82GP (0.34PPG/0.30EVPPG) w/ 21:19ATOI of which 18:51/EVTOI, 0:10/PPTOI and 2:16PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0159/EVPPM
Brodie: 2022-23: 2G+12A=14PTS/58GP (0.24PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ 21:13ATOI of which 18:11/EVTOI, 0:05/PPTOI and 2:56PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0121/EVPPM
Brodie: 2023-24: 0G+2A=2PTS/17GP (0.11PPG/0.11EVPPG) w/ 22:27ATOI of which 19:12/EVTOI, 0:03/PPTOI and 3:11PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0057/EVPPM
Brodie's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0112/EVPPM

So using the Even Strength Scoring Factor and a Full 82GP Season, here's what Zadorov may have scored given the same Top-4 Even Strength TOI as, say:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0183EVSF = 0.35EVPPG x 82GP = 28-29 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.183 EVSF = 0.31EVPPG x 82GP = 26-27 Even Strength Points

Now let's do the same thing and compare Liljegren's:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.23EVPPG x 82GP = 18-19 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.206EVPPG x 82GP = 16-17 Even Strength Points

Clearly Zadorov is the More Consistent and Productive Offensive Defensemen at Even Strength than both Liljegren & Brodie and if given more ice time in a Top-4 Role, which he deserves, he would be a 25-30+ Point Even Strength Contributor. Give him some Power Play Time and that could increase to 40PTS+/0.50PPG+ results (I'd put him right in front of the Goalie myself). NOW, at least Brodie Kills Penalties, but Liljegren doesn't. What Zadorov does that they BOTH don't do though, is throw HEAVY Hits and Drop the Gloves, which increases his value substantially as well

So you and Kinger25 can continue to claim he's just a 3rd Pairing D-Man, who's no better than Luke Schenn, that's fine, but as shown above, continuing to do so would be completely naive and ignorant. I mean, if you just want a Big Goon who can Kill Penalties, Block Shots, Hit and Drop the Gloves, go pay a 3rd+ for a $2-4mil/yr Player, like Schenn

But if you want the BIGGER, BETTER, STRONGER Zadorov who can also Score and Contribute Offensively just as much as a 1st Pairing D-Man and who's currently suggested to be worth around $5mil/yr+ on his next contract (comparable to Chiarot's/$4.75mil, Brodie's/$5mil, Gavrikov's/$5.875, Pelech's/$5.75, Cernak's/$5.25, R.Grave's/$4.5), that's literally gonna cost you a 1st with retention or a 2nd++ without retention. This is what all the "Hockey Insider's" are saying too, simply because he's improved substantially since joining the Flames and he's clearly NOT just a 3rd Pairing D-Man anymore, whereas Liljegren is and likely will forever be and both McCabe & Brodie are heading that direction now as well


Yes let's ignore the goals against when discussing how good a defenseman is.
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 28
#78
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Quoting: palhal
I don't what is with Leaf fans. They seem to great fascination with middling Dmen....as long as are on non playoff teams.
Certainly Dreger's report isn't anything new. Of course the Leafs would love to have Klingberg's cap to disappear.
Trevling's UFA signings have been poor. Gee how you trust him to know value in a trade.


Yes, lets trade for a forward.
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 29
#79
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Quoting: palhal
Sorry, I don't believe in this nonsense about toughness and grit. I would prefer good, instead of this phathom "grit and toughness". If it's so important and Zaradov and Tanev have it, why are the Flames out of the playoff with them. Hanifan and Andersson are the the top Dmen for Flames, then Weager, and then Zaradov and Tanev. How is that a massive improvement for the Leafs ?
Timmins hasn't played this season, Liljegren and Klingbergt are injured, and the Leafs are doing "OK". No need ot give up a whole whack of futures (which the Leafs don't have).
Now I admit the Leafs may have to get a Dman at some time, especially if the cap allows Klingberg to "disappear" via LTIR;
Never hear about one Tampa Bay trade for Dmen...when there GAA is worse than the Leafs despite some so called high end Dmen. It just seems to me that there is there constant decades old nonsense that all Leaf Dmen are bad, and any other NHLer is better.


"I don't believe in grit" - someone who has never watched an NHL playoff game.
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 31
#80
TrevorA
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Quoting: fangm
Yes let's ignore the goals against when discussing how good a defenseman is.

Lol he’s only one of 3-5 players on the ice at a time and doesn’t play goaltender…

He’s certainly not amazing defensively, but he’s definitely more than a 3rd Pairing D-Man like many ppl are trying to suggest and believe, yet constantly insert him at 2LD/RD on all the Leafs lineups. I’ve even seen him at 1RD from time to time
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 35
#81
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: fangm
"I don't believe in grit" - someone who has never watched an NHL playoff game.


Any player that makes it to the NHL has grit. If grit was so important that Leafs lack, why do folks keep on trading for middling players from non playoff teams.
24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 37
#82
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Lol he’s only one of 3-5 players on the ice at a time and doesn’t play goaltender…

He’s certainly not amazing defensively, but he’s definitely more than a 3rd Pairing D-Man like many ppl are trying to suggest and believe, yet constantly insert him at 2LD/RD on all the Leafs lineups. I’ve even seen him at 1RD from time to time


He's a high end #5. Can carry a third pair or can be the supporting guy on the second pair.

Definitely not like a 5/6 more of a 4/5.
24 nov. 2023 à 15 h 57
#83
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Okay, here we go, you ready!? I'm gonna work off of Zadorov's Regular Season career as a Flame:

2021-22: 4G+18A=22PTS/74GP (=0.30PPG) w/ just 16:55ATOI of which 15:57/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTOI and 0:46PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0188/EVPPM
2022-23: 14G+7A=21PTS/82GP (0.26PPG) w/ just 18:41ATOI of which 16:18/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTPI and 2:10PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0160/EVPPM
2023-24: 11G+5A=6PTS/18GP (=0.33PPG) w/ just 18:14ATOI of which 16:32/EVTOI, 0:09/PPTOI and 1:32PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0200/EVPPM
Zadorov's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0183/EVPPM

Relevant Comparisons:
Liljegren 2021-22: 5G+18A=23PTS/61GP (0.38PPG/0.34EVPPG) w/ just 16:24ATOI of which 15:02/EVTOI, 0:17/PPTOI and 1:03PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0226/EVPPM
Liljegren 2022-23: 6G+12A=18PTS/67GP (0.27PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ just 17:55ATOI of which 15:59/EVTOI, 0:29/PPTOI and 1:26PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.01375/EVPPM
Liljegren 2023-24: 0G+1A/1PT/10GP (0.10PPG/0.00EVPPG) w/ just 17:56ATOI of which 15:13/EVTOI, 0:53/PPTOI and 1:47PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.000/EVPPM
NOTE: Young Players are supposed to Improve over time, not Decline. Also notice Liljegren has never been able to play a full season and unlike Zadorov receives some PP Time Liljegren's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0121/EVPPM

Brodie: 2021-22: 4G+24A=28PTS/82GP (0.34PPG/0.30EVPPG) w/ 21:19ATOI of which 18:51/EVTOI, 0:10/PPTOI and 2:16PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0159/EVPPM
Brodie: 2022-23: 2G+12A=14PTS/58GP (0.24PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ 21:13ATOI of which 18:11/EVTOI, 0:05/PPTOI and 2:56PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0121/EVPPM
Brodie: 2023-24: 0G+2A=2PTS/17GP (0.11PPG/0.11EVPPG) w/ 22:27ATOI of which 19:12/EVTOI, 0:03/PPTOI and 3:11PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor: 0.0057/EVPPM
Brodie's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0112/EVPPM

So using the Even Strength Scoring Factor and a Full 82GP Season, here's what Zadorov may have scored given the same Top-4 Even Strength TOI as, say:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0183EVSF = 0.35EVPPG x 82GP = 28-29 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.183 EVSF = 0.31EVPPG x 82GP = 26-27 Even Strength Points

Now let's do the same thing and compare Liljegren's:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.23EVPPG x 82GP = 18-19 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.206EVPPG x 82GP = 16-17 Even Strength Points

Clearly Zadorov is the More Consistent and Productive Offensive Defensemen at Even Strength than both Liljegren & Brodie and if given more ice time in a Top-4 Role, which he deserves, he would be a 25-30+ Point Even Strength Contributor. Give him some Power Play Time and that could increase to 40PTS+/0.50PPG+ results (I'd put him right in front of the Goalie myself). NOW, at least Brodie Kills Penalties, but Liljegren doesn't. What Zadorov does that they BOTH don't do though, is throw HEAVY Hits and Drop the Gloves, which increases his value substantially as well

So you and Kinger25 can continue to claim he's just a 3rd Pairing D-Man, who's no better than Luke Schenn, that's fine, but as shown above, continuing to do so would be completely naive and ignorant. I mean, if you just want a Big Goon who can Kill Penalties, Block Shots, Hit and Drop the Gloves, go pay a 3rd+ for a $2-4mil/yr Player, like Schenn

But if you want the BIGGER, BETTER, STRONGER Zadorov who can also Score and Contribute Offensively just as much as a 1st Pairing D-Man and who's currently suggested to be worth around $5mil/yr+ on his next contract (comparable to Chiarot's/$4.75mil, Brodie's/$5mil, Gavrikov's/$5.875, Pelech's/$5.75, Cernak's/$5.25, R.Grave's/$4.5), that's literally gonna cost you a 1st with retention or a 2nd++ without retention. This is what all the "Hockey Insider's" are saying too, simply because he's improved substantially since joining the Flames and he's clearly NOT just a 3rd Pairing D-Man anymore, whereas Liljegren is and likely will forever be and both McCabe & Brodie are heading that direction now as well


His career high is 22 points and scored all the goals he got last here on a unsustainable shooting percentage. He'll never score more than 20 odd points a season. Just give it a rest.
24 nov. 2023 à 17 h 37
#84
TrevorA
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Quoting: RipNasty
His career high is 22 points and scored all the goals he got last here on a unsustainable shooting percentage. He'll never score more than 20 odd points a season. Just give it a rest.

Clearly you’ve got it all figured out OR you’re just stubborn and extremely closed minded. I guess by the same logic, Liljegren will never do any better either, but that not your position is it now!?

You’re like talking to a wall man. I’m going back to my original position that talking to you is both pointless and a serious waste of my time
24 nov. 2023 à 17 h 42
#85
Rip
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Quoting: KingofRnR
Clearly you’ve got it all figured out OR you’re just stubborn and extremely closed minded. I guess by the same logic, Liljegren will never do any better either, but that not your position is it now!?

You’re like talking to a wall man. I’m going back to my original position that talking to you is both pointless and a serious waste of my time


Liljegren is 24 and has scored at a 30 point pace twice. Given his natural progression as he enters his prime (Zadorov is about to leave his over the next 2 seasons) it's very reasonable to think he continues to get better. You know because that's kind of what young players do. This isn't stubborn or anything it's just logic and pretty easy to follow. The math is super easy to follow as well. Bending numbers to try to make Zadorov become a potential 40-50 point defenceman is beyond silly.
24 nov. 2023 à 18 h 9
#86
TrevorA
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Modifié 24 nov. 2023 à 18 h 24
Quoting: RipNasty
Liljegren is 24 and has scored at a 30 point pace twice. Given his natural progression as he enters his prime (Zadorov is about to leave his over the next 2 seasons) it's very reasonable to think he continues to get better. You know because that's kind of what young players do. This isn't stubborn or anything it's just logic and pretty easy to follow. The math is super easy to follow as well. Bending numbers to try to make Zadorov become a potential 40-50 point defenceman is beyond silly.

You’re so annoying. You completely dismissed/ignored the numbers and facts I provided you. Liljegren is on a downward trajectory. You don’t even know the age ages for a Defensemen either. Overall you’re absolutely clueless and you’ve proven that to me without a doubt
24 nov. 2023 à 18 h 58
#87
Rip
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Quoting: KingofRnR
You’re so annoying. You completely dismissed/ignored the numbers and facts I provided you. Liljegren is on a downward trajectory. You don’t even know the age ages for a Defensemen either. Overall you’re absolutely clueless and you’ve proven that to me without a doubt


Your numbers are just nonsensical. Liljegren has legitimately had a season where he scored at a 30 point pace. To think he will be around a 30 point defenceman is pretty accurate since he's already done so and is still developing. Meanwhile Zadorov has never scored at a 30 point pace. Ever. His best season is 22, he's not developing, he's developed. This is who he is. And it's not a bad player but you can't go around trying to inflate his value by trying to make up some nonsense that he's a 40-50 point defenceman on a different team. He's already on his 3rd team and this is what he is. A physical 3rd pair defender. End of story.
24 nov. 2023 à 19 h 34
#88
TrevorA
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Quoting: RipNasty
Your numbers are just nonsensical. Liljegren has legitimately had a season where he scored at a 30 point pace. To think he will be around a 30 point defenceman is pretty accurate since he's already done so and is still developing. Meanwhile Zadorov has never scored at a 30 point pace. Ever. His best season is 22, he's not developing, he's developed. This is who he is. And it's not a bad player but you can't go around trying to inflate his value by trying to make up some nonsense that he's a 40-50 point defenceman on a different team. He's already on his 3rd team and this is what he is. A physical 3rd pair defender. End of story.

You’re wrong and I proved that already. Time to move on
24 nov. 2023 à 19 h 38
#89
Rip
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Quoting: KingofRnR
You’re wrong and I proved that already. Time to move on


No you didn't prove anything. You just wasted time and made up nonsense.
 
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