Modifié 24 nov. 2023 à 14 h 17
Quoting: RipNasty
I am eagerly awaiting this math
Okay, here we go, you ready!? I'm gonna work off of Zadorov's Regular Season career as a Flame:
2021-22: 4G+18A=22PTS/74GP (=0.30PPG) w/ just 16:55ATOI of which 15:57/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTOI and 0:46PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0188/EVPPM
2022-23: 14G+7A=21PTS/82GP (0.26PPG) w/ just 18:41ATOI of which 16:18/EVTOI, 0:11/PPTPI and 2:10PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0160/EVPPM
2023-24: 11G+5A=6PTS/18GP (=0.33PPG) w/ just 18:14ATOI of which 16:32/EVTOI, 0:09/PPTOI and 1:32PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0200/EVPPM
Zadorov's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0183/EVPPM
Relevant Comparisons:
Liljegren 2021-22: 5G+18A=23PTS/61GP (0.38PPG/0.34EVPPG) w/ just 16:24ATOI of which 15:02/EVTOI, 0:17/PPTOI and 1:03PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0226/EVPPM
Liljegren 2022-23: 6G+12A=18PTS/67GP (0.27PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ just 17:55ATOI of which 15:59/EVTOI, 0:29/PPTOI and 1:26PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.01375/EVPPM
Liljegren 2023-24: 0G+1A/1PT/10GP (0.10PPG/0.00EVPPG) w/ just 17:56ATOI of which 15:13/EVTOI, 0:53/PPTOI and 1:47PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.000/EVPPM
NOTE: Young Players are supposed to Improve over time, not Decline. Also notice Liljegren has never been able to play a full season and unlike Zadorov receives some PP Time Liljegren's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0121/EVPPM
Brodie: 2021-22: 4G+24A=28PTS/82GP (0.34PPG/0.30EVPPG) w/ 21:19ATOI of which 18:51/EVTOI, 0:10/PPTOI and 2:16PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0159/EVPPM
Brodie: 2022-23: 2G+12A=14PTS/58GP (0.24PPG/0.22EVPPG) w/ 21:13ATOI of which 18:11/EVTOI, 0:05/PPTOI and 2:56PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0121/EVPPM
Brodie: 2023-24: 0G+2A=2PTS/17GP (0.11PPG/0.11EVPPG) w/ 22:27ATOI of which 19:12/EVTOI, 0:03/PPTOI and 3:11PKTOI: Even Strength Scoring Factor:
0.0057/EVPPM
Brodie's Even Strength Scoring Factor Average: 0.0112/EVPPM
So using the Even Strength Scoring Factor and a Full 82GP Season, here's what Zadorov may have scored given the same Top-4 Even Strength TOI as, say:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0183EVSF = 0.35EVPPG x 82GP = 28-29 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.183 EVSF = 0.31EVPPG x 82GP = 26-27 Even Strength Points
Now let's do the same thing and compare Liljegren's:
1st Pairing: MTL-Chiarot's/Brodie's ~19:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.23EVPPG x 82GP = 18-19 Even Strength Points
2nd Pairing McCabe's ~17:00EVTOI x 0.0121EVSF = 0.206EVPPG x 82GP = 16-17 Even Strength Points
Clearly Zadorov is the More Consistent and Productive Offensive Defensemen at Even Strength than both Liljegren & Brodie and if given more ice time in a Top-4 Role, which he deserves, he would be a 25-30+ Point Even Strength Contributor. Give him some Power Play Time and that could increase to 40PTS+/0.50PPG+ results (I'd put him right in front of the Goalie myself). NOW, at least Brodie Kills Penalties, but Liljegren doesn't. What Zadorov does that they BOTH don't do though, is throw HEAVY Hits and Drop the Gloves, which increases his value substantially as well
So you and
@Kinger25 can continue to claim he's just a 3rd Pairing D-Man, who's no better than Luke Schenn, that's fine, but as shown above, continuing to do so would be completely naive and ignorant. I mean, if you just want a Big Goon who can Kill Penalties, Block Shots, Hit and Drop the Gloves, go pay a 3rd+ for a $2-4mil/yr Player, like Schenn
But if you want the BIGGER, BETTER, STRONGER Zadorov who can also Score and Contribute Offensively just as much as a 1st Pairing D-Man and who's currently suggested to be worth around $5mil/yr+ on his next contract (comparable to Chiarot's/$4.75mil, Brodie's/$5mil, Gavrikov's/$5.875, Pelech's/$5.75, Cernak's/$5.25, R.Grave's/$4.5), that's literally gonna cost you a 1st with retention or a 2nd++ without retention. This is what all the "Hockey Insider's" are saying too, simply because he's improved substantially since joining the Flames and he's clearly NOT just a 3rd Pairing D-Man anymore, whereas Liljegren is and likely will forever be and both McCabe & Brodie are heading that direction now as well