I don't get why it's specifically Hawks fans keep proposing that the Caps will pay a 2nd rounder to dump Mantha. Caps fans always say it's not happening, and no other fanbase is so consistently out of touch on Mantha's value, but I swear 9/10 times when I see a Hawks ACGM with a Caps trade it's Mantha + 2nd for nothing. There's some weird hive mind thing going on.

Seems to be the going rate for cap Dumps.

CHI isn't moving Raddysh for that.

SPECIFICALLY, it was WSH fans who started, and ALSO incessantly post, the Mantha dump trades. They started out with WSH fans thinking they could get something for him, which is ridiculous. And every other fan base knows it too. He is a cap dump, can't stay healthy, he is overpaid, the Caps need cap space, and CHI is one of very few teams that can provide that for them. Those things create leverage. Also, there are studies on what picks are worth, what cap dumps cost, and how actual salary dollar amount effects the price of cap dumps, which CHI fans have used to determine prices. It isn't hive mind. It is being informed, and standing your ground on what cap relief costs. CHI doesn't need other teams garbage. We need assets that our rebuild can benefit from. These Mantha dumps have been going back and forth for months now. So where have you been?

Yes, most Caps fans think he's a cap dump. I don't agree, but he's one of those players who becomes a fanbase's whipping boy. For what it's worth, the local Caps media person with actual connections, Tarik El-Bashir, thinks the same way I do - he's available, but they won't pay to get rid of him. From a Q&A earlier this month:



No Caps fan though, and no other fanbase, thinks he'll cost a 2nd rounder to dump. Here's the last few offers by non-Caps or Hawks fans where Mantha's the main part of the deal (I'm leaving out ones where he's part of a trade up to #5 for example, since it's too muddied to determine exactly how he's being valued).

To the Avs with 700K returned for the 2024 COL 4th

To the Habs with the Caps' 2023 and 2024 4ths for no return

To the Canucks with the Caps' 2023 2nd and 2024 4th for Brock Boeser

To the Leafs with 1M in retention for no return

To the Habs for Mike Hoffman (1.5M retained) and Rem Pitlick

To the Habs with the Caps' 2023 2nd for Rem Pitlick and the Habs' 2023 3rd (OP comments on the trade, "might be a reach")

As bizarre as it is to say, I've found Leafs, Habs, and Canucks fans to be much more reasonable in their offers for Mantha than Hawks fans have been. The Hawks are the only fanbase that keeps doing Mantha + 2nd for nothing despite Caps fans saying every time that it's not happening.

If you've got studies on cap dumps feel free to post them. It'll be interesting to see how the players involved compare to Mantha. Over his time with the Caps Mantha has 58 points in 118 games, which is a 40 point pace. He's only gotten second unit powerplay time, so almost all of that came at even strength. His 5 on 5 P/60 is 1.73, which puts him in the same neighborhood as Tyler Seguin, Bo Horvat, and Logan Couture. His 53.3 SAT% is the second highest amongst Caps forwards over the last three seasons (min 82 GP), and despite how lazy he might look on the ice the advanced stats have said he's good defensively every time I've seen them. Put it all together and that's a strong third-line winger. Is that worth a 5.7M cap hit? Obviously not, but that's his floor. Even if he doesn't bounce back, a player like that can be moved at the deadline with retention for a pick or two. If he's on pace for 30 goals come the next deadline, he could return a 1st. Personally I think the Caps will just keep him and see how he does under Carbery. The Caps aren't at all desperate for cap space except in unrealistic ACGMs where they trade for or sign 3 top 6 forwards.

That's fair. But this time of year doesn't count. This is the time of year when all the casuals come out of the woodwork and, after months and months of discussion, debate, and compromise, make awful proposals that do not align with the consensus realities of a given team or players situation. But, maybe you and Tarik are right and the Caps can get him going. But, I feel like they've seen enough to know what they get from him, though. He is injured constantly and has massively underperformed in comparison to his contract. I think there will be some urgency with WSH because of their aging core and missing the playoffs this past season.

Here's some links I've been using over the last few months to help evaluate pick and cap dump values:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/
https://theathletic.com/1798463/2020/06/12/by-the-numbers-revisiting-the-true-value-of-a-draft-pick/
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-trade-deadline-countdown-which-teams-will-be-third-party-money-brokers

You can just look through trade history to make comparisons, as well. There are also some pretty unique circumstances this summer specifically that, I believe, has the potential to inflate the cost of cap space. "Cap dumps as a service" I like to call it. There are lots of cap strapped teams who are in situations where they need to win now, as well as very few teams who can provide that cap space, and, of course, the flat cap due to the pandemic. But, it is also a pretty small window to take advantage of if the cap is truly going to increase significantly for the 24-25 season. So teams like CHI also don't want to overplay their hand and end up not getting the assets they need for their rebuild or retool, depending on the team. I still believe CHI has a majority of the leverage in these types of deals, but who knows what will happen. I think that OEL buyout was VAN saying "screw you. we aren't paying." to teams like CHI. So that is a decision each team will have to make for themselves. I don't think Davidson is actively trying to squeeze teams, but he has made it quite clear what he is capable of and willing to do, for the right price.