That’s an extremely weak offer for Karlsson lol

Alright hit me then. What do you think Karlsson's trade value is? Keep in mind San Jose obviously isn't going to retain 50%, they would be paying him 19 million over the next 4 years to play for a different team, I highly doubt they would retain anymore than what I have here, which would be ~10M in money owed

That 2nd alone would be the cost to move Bailey. I don’t think Salo holds any value, so Dobson is the only thing with value

I don’t know maybe Bailey, Dobson, 2023 2nd, 2024 1st, Holmstrom. Then plus picks for however much retention

The cost to dump a player is only true in the case of purely buying cap space, if your POV was true then it should have cost Vancouver a lot more to dump all 3 of Roussel, Beagle, and Eriksson.
Not sure why you think Salo holds no value, I would say the only difference between him and Holmstrom is that Salo is no longer waiver exempt.
As for Dobson he's only 23 and has put up back to back 50 point seasons. He absolutely has a lot of trade value himself and fits the Sharks timeline quite well
Also the 2nd in my post is also a conditional 1st so basically you are saying the difference here is roughly a 2nd in value

I think whether we pay 50% retention is still up in there air. Grier said around the deadline that we didn't want to retain too much, but I think there's a good chance that is just a negotiating strategy. They'll go higher if the offer is good enough.

As for how much money the high retention would be, its definitely crazy but not unthinkable. We're paying the money regardless, its just a question of whether its full price to keep him around and not help the rebuild, or half price to ship him our and get something in return. I feel like its comparable to the major buyouts we've seen in the last few years. OEL is now also getting 20m to not play for Vancouver, but that is over 8 years instead of 4. Combined the Parise and Suter buyouts are like 13m real dollars over 8 years, but in terms of cap its something like 52m+ over 8 years. Not trying to say those are worse than 50% retained on EK65, just saying the cap crunch has made teams desperate, and Grier should be given the leeway to do what he can to fix the issues of the previous front office. Plus unlike a buyout we'd actually get something back for him.

The sharks wouldn’t want anything to do with Bailey hence dumping him there and Salo couldn’t crack the lineup two years in a row and got jumped by Bolduc

Besides it wouldn’t make sense to trade all these assets for Karlsson when he doesn’t seem like a good fit for the islanders nor will he repeat his historic year

It's about what the owner is willing to do, not what the team is willing to retain. Grier would have to convince Plattner that he should burn an extra 10 million dollars for what probably ends up as another 1st in value

Why would they not have interest in Bailey? They still need to stay above the cap floor, he's only being paid 3.5M in actual money, they can retain on him and flip him for a decent return at the deadline, plus they will be getting Karlsson off their roster which is the entire point of this.

Why would Karlsson be a bad fit for a team that is trying to contend and needs to improve their offense?

Why wouldn’t the sharks utilize their cap space and take picks to take on bad contracts? Lol flip Bailey at the deadline for what a 6th?

Islanders play a structured game that relies on their defense to play shutdown defense and karlsson plays 0 defense lol. Even if you pair him with Pelech, you’d be hurting Pelech by making him cover both his side and Karlsson’s side

Might as well look at the glass as half full. A 50% retention trade is saving Plattner half of what it will cost to not trade him at all. All I'm saying is that the 50% retention in and of its self should not be a deal breaker, and should be an option for the right trade.

Bailey paced 32 points this year and had 44 points last year. At 50% retention that's 2.5M for a ~35-45 point player. Not to mention he's known to step up in the playoffs too. He didn't play this year but over the previous 2 playoffs he had 33 points in 41 games. I could absolutely see a team paying a 2nd for that type of production at the deadline when his cap hit is ~80% prorated and then 50% retained.

Um what? Noah Dobson is absolutely abysmal defensively. They also just traded for Horvat and signed him long term too. How exactly do those guys fit into the Islanders structure but Karlsson doesn't?

Here's the difference. Karlsson sells seats, I bet a lot of games leading up to him hitting 100 points were packed. So at least with the idea of paying him 100% to stay vs 50% to leave you are at least making money off him staying.

The justification should be under the assumption that he is moved. At what point does the cost to pay him outweigh the return per cap retention. That's some sort parabolic curve and you want to land around the sweat spot at the top. Personally I doubt they can get a good enough return at 50% to justify paying him that much

I would think this would be in ballpark if you just change that conditional 2nd into a unconditional 1st (maybe top 5 protected). I definitely agree that SJ would be interested in Dobson while shipping out EK, as SJ really needs RDs. They are flooded with LDs. Think a 3rd team will be involved in a EK trade no matter what to solve the retention problem

I can't imagine a 3rd team would ever get involved, he's owed a lot of money and has multiple years of term. Getting another team to retain would cost at least a 1st in compensation

I was thinking more of a combination of lesser picks, retaining around 1m/yr. Teams that want to horde picks and have plenty of space expected for the next 4 years would consider, like AZ, CHI, maybe ANA. Don't see SJ ever retaining higher than 3m (or expecting teams to pay the assets to justify 40-50% retention on EK), so including another team could put SJ's retention in the 2m-1.5m range, which I totally seeing them stomach. I could be being unrealistic, I don't know. Maybe Karlsson going anywhere is unrealistic and the market is dead.

Arizona definitely won't, OEL being bought out didn't get them their retention slot back so they only have 2 slots for the next 4 years already. Going down to 1 slot just to retain 1M is not at all worth it for them.

If Chicago is locked into the McCabe retention for 2 years and may want to move Murphy or Jones at some point too

There’s less than a 1% chance isles would trade Dobson for Karlsson straight up , let alone this trade

What you don’t understand is that

1. Dobson and karlsson will likely at worst have a similar impact next season

2. Young high end RHD in their prime are one of the most valuable assets in the game. The isles will either sign Dobson long term or trade him for a boatload when his contract is up. Trading him for a 34 year old defenseman making a lot of money would never happen.

Karlsson + wouldn’t get Dobson, so I am not sure how you think that the isles would even consider adding a 1st rd pick

I mean I don’t think Dobson will ever touch Karlsson’s offensive numbers even though islander fans think Dobson will be a Norris winner

There are maybe 2-3 defenseman that will ever touch Karlssons offensive numbers at his peak.

Taking into account age, contract , and injuries, dobson is the far more valuable asset right now . It isn’t close

I mean I said it makes 0 sense to trade for Karlsson given his age, cap, and amount of assets it’ll take to get him

dont mind me going back 7 months on AGMs here lol but what was going on here lmao. Dobson having a top 3 Norris season as a 23 year old with EK is actually not doing back but is still 33, 10 years older and making like 6 mil more.

@rags21 islanders were never gonna do Dobson for EK one for one, or even if SJS added a bit. Dobson's value trumps EKs and its not even close

Definitely not top 3 lol. Maybe top 5 but there still time for him to cool off or crash and burn with Lambert playing him 30 minutes a night

And he still won’t touch Karlsson’s 100 point season. I stand by that lol

Let’s not forget how you thought Panarin was gonna fall off this year because “the stats show him declining each year”

Crash and burn lol take the L man

Hughes, Bouchard, Makar are all up there lol Hedman seems like he’s back to form. And then Fox got hurt so lucky for Dobson

Acting like I’m saying Dobson having a top 5 season is bad lmao. Nothing is good enough for you loser islander fans