I am in a minority but I would be happy for that return for Samsonov and then run Murray/Woll as the tandem next season.

That’s a legitimate option - especially if cost to move Murray prices exorbitant (although I don’t think it’ll take a 1st in return for 2nd). But I think leafs mgmt has lost trust in him so he’ll be moved or bought out

It's hard to say, he did play well when healthy. And his last injury was just terrible luck. Woll's the guy though I think. He was very good in the playoffs and was great all season. I think he's mentally sound and that's 90% of being a good goalie.

I'd definitely be happy to run this roster -assuming these trades get accepted. Which might be a bit iffy

Which one(s) do you think are iffy?

Nothing major really - they might be fine - mostly just said that to cover myself haha.

If TOR really likes Samsonov, you'd might need to add more there. I doubt Lindberg carries any value anymore after signing in Europe. I was going to say you'd need to pay FLA - but just now realized you have MTL eating half of Rutta's salary. Even with retention I'd be surprised if DAL goes for that Granlund trade. And I would think the 3rd round pick goes the other way in the VAN trade. I know they have cap issues - but I doubt they pay to move Garland. All just speculation obviously - just my two cents. Nothing egregious, just maybe off a little

All totally fair. I think Dal needs 3rd liners and for 3.5MM and their style of play, Granlund fits. Van is in a similar situation to the Pens with Granlund. 3rd liner who is making too much and doesn't fit their style. If they retained some, the pick would go the other way.

But this is just me speculating too.

You're not wrong. I guess I just figure people in the league probably looked at Granlund on the Pens and collectively decided he cannot play in the bottom 6 haha. As for Garland - I think he's better than Granlund, and considering we paid a 2nd for him, I guess I figured Vancouver could at least get a mid round pick for him from someone and not have to pay to get rid of him. That was my logic. But who knows. I'd be cool giving up a mid pick if they retained for sure.

Toronto isn’t doing Pittsburg any favours. Dubas might as well lose the Leafs’ number.

Is Samsonov for a 2nd and a prospect a favor? Would you rather trade Woll? No one is taking Murray off Tor hands unless they pay a fairly large price. They could buy him out but again, dead cap isn't fun.

I don't think looking at Ron Hextall trades for a comp is a good idea. 😉

Yeah, it's possible they would want something for him, but they have 5MM in space and need another 5 players. They are (somehow) against the cap, and could use the space.

He’s a NHL starting goalie with a top 10 save % of .919 and still young.

This year he had a WAR of 2.8
Last year it was -1.5
The year before it was -0.6
He might be a starting goalie. I, obviously, think he will be. But Tor might want to take a 2nd, and see if Woll can take the reins. That would give them stability and be much cheaper.

But you're entitled to you opinion.

Fair enough haha - it's not the best I agree.

They do have cap issues for sure(somehow) - I just think they would have no problem getting at least something for Garland - he's a good player. Even more so if they throw in a little retention

A second round pick is meaningless for a team that wants to win now, especially considering he was their #1 goalie last year. He’s still young for a goalie and if he improves upon last season — well that would be pretty awesome. You don’t trade that for a 2nd round pick. Especially to a conference rival.

Ok. I figured the 2nd and cap space would help. If Tor buys out Murray and gives Samsonov 4.5MM a year and keeps Woll, that is roughly 7.5MM in goalies. Tor is 13.5MM under the cap (assuming a Murray buyout) and needs a 3rd liner and 2 4th liners, assuming they don't want to upgrade their top or middle 6. So going cheap, they could have a full roster and around 8MM in cap space. Then in 2024 they would have to resign Matthews and Nylander and Robertson (if they wanted to) and would have 9MM to do it. Matt and Ny would probably want another 3MM each, so that means they have 3MM.

Working backwards, if Tor keeps Samsonov, they have around 3MM to sign someone to this offseason to upgrade their roster. If they don't keep Samsonov, they have between 8MM and 6MM.

With Woll looking good and the ability to sign a good FA, it makes sense to move Samsonov.

But again, you can disagree if you'd like.

Muzzin will be on LTIR giving the Leafs almost 15 million in cap without moving Murray.

A Matt Murray buyout also carries only a $687,500 for this year and 2 million for next. Saving the Leafs another 4 million this year and giving them almost 19 million in cap space.

Sammy made 1.8 million last year and won’t make 4.5 million this year. He was good, but the days of better on goalies to be consistent is over. I expect he’ll get around 3-3.5 on a shorter term deal.

You don’t go into the NHL season with Woll as your only goalie. He’s young and has only a handful of games. Fact is, him and Sammy will make a decent pairing and the Leafs will role with that unless another, better goalie is dropped on their lap. That said, there aren’t any better goalies available to the Leafs. Helly is not coming to a Canadian team.

The Leafs have plenty of cap space to get done whatever they need to. If anything Pittsburg has more of a cap problem than the Leafs do.

Let's break down the math.
Tor (as it is right now) needs 5 forwards and 1 defenseman and has 13.5MM in cap space.
If they sign all of those spots to 1MM / 1yr guys, they have 8.5MM in space.

Now, let's buy out Murray (0.8MM this year and 2MM next year). So now they have 7.7MM this year. They then get Samsonov for 3.5MM for 2 years. Now they have 4.2MM in space.

2024 offseason rolls around. They have 2 UFAs of note and 1 RFA of note next offseason. In this roster they have 5F, 3D, 2G and around 32MM in cap space

Math:
11.6 + 7 + 5 + 1.4 + 1.2 + 0.8 + 0.8 + 0.8 - 2 + 4.2 + 1 = 32.7MM
Matthews + Nylander + Brodie + Liljegren + Lafferty + Robertson + McMann - Murray + prior year leftover + cap increase

Matthews will want around 14MM
Nylander will want around 10MM

So now, Tor has 8.7MM in cap space and needs 6F and 3D. Welcome to cap hell.

Conversely, if they kept Murray to backup Woll, they would free up 5.5MM, giving them 14.2MM for the same needs but adding in a backup goalie. A good backup might cost 2MM, so they have 12.2MM to fill 9 slots. Still not great, but more doable.

How can I reply to something that is so wrong. Go click on the Capfriendly Leafs link. 14.768 million in cap space with Murray on the roster.

Add Robertson, McMann, Holmberg….that’s 10 forwards and those guys don’t even eat up another 2.5 million. 1.55 for Robertson and McMann and Holmberg will get league minimum or slightly more. Making that 2.3 million and almost 12.5 million left with 10 forwards, 6 dmen and 2 goalies on the roster.

It won’t be hard to fill the rest with 12.5. Expect the Leafs to try and sign Schenn, Acciarri and Kampf to deals. None of which will break the bank. Expect 2 million or less. That would give them 12 forwards, 7 Dmen and 2 goalies with over 6 million left.

If they buy out Murray and sign Sammy I’d expect Sammy to come in under Murray’s old number plus 600K buyout. So they will still be left with 6 million or so to add another forward or two.

I appreciate your concern but they are fine and they sure as heck aren’t gifting a starting goalie to Pittsburg and Dumbas for a 2nd round pick. It ain’t happening.

Matthews’ and Nylander’s contracts are irrelevant for next year. They don’t change and Brodie is off the books the following year with an expected large cap increase since the escrow will be paid.

Well first, I have to correct you. Pittsburgh. There is an H.

Second, your first sentence was "How can I reply to something that is so wrong." You then proceed to put in nearly the same numbers as me.

You said they have 12F, 7D, 2G with 6MM left.

I said they have 14F, 7D, 2G with 4.2MM left.

Add two league minimum forwards to your math and you get... 4.2MM

Lastly, the expected increase in cap for 24-25 is 4MM. With the raises that Matthews and Nylander will ask for, Tor will have around 12MM in space for 6F and 3D (I, incorrectly said 8.7MM above, forgetting it would likely raise by 4MM not 1MM).

My math is correct. You even came to the same conclusion.

Did you forget this part? So now, Tor has 8.7MM in cap space and needs 6F and 3D. Welcome to cap hell….

Have a nice life ________

Did I forget that part? Hmm...

Well you quoted be twice above but let me do it again to see if I forgot about the 8.5MM statement...



No, I corrected myself. So where is the confusion? Is needing 9 players with 12MM in cap space not cap hell? I think it might be...