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Carter Hart Deal Analysis

Créé par: jonh514
Équipe: 2023-24 Canadiens de Montréal
Date de création initiale: 8 juin 2023
Publié: 8 juin 2023
Mode - plafond salarial: Basique
Description
My thinking on the below deal is that the 37 OA pick is going to be high enough to choose any of the Goalies in this draft who project to be as good as Hart.

Then the 2nd next season is a sort of insurance since not all 2nd round picks work out.

Finally Allen is more of a cap clearing move and the Flyers will need to dress someone competent, so while I do not think Allen adds value, I don't believe he subtracts value either.
Transactions
MTL
  1. Hart, Carter
Détails additionnels:
Analysis in the description above
PHI
  1. Allen, Jake
  2. Choix de 2e ronde en 2023 (MTL)
  3. Choix de 2e ronde en 2024 (COL)
Détails additionnels:
This is the most I would give up. I do not believe Hart's "upside" is the heir apparent to Carey Price.

If the price is set as a superstar Goalie, I would pass.
Rachats de contrats
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2023
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2024
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2025
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TAILLE DE LA FORMATIONPLAFOND SALARIALCAP HITEXCÉDENTS Info-bulleBONISESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
2083 500 000 $69 778 166 $1 170 000 $4 195 000 $13 721 834 $
Ailier gaucheCentreAilier droit
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4 500 000 $4 500 000 $
AG
UFA - 1
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7 875 000 $7 875 000 $
C
UFA - 7
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6 500 000 $6 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
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1 100 000 $1 100 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 1
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4 450 000 $4 450 000 $
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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5 500 000 $5 500 000 $
AD, AG
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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812 500 $812 500 $
AG, AD
UFA - 2
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3 362 500 $3 362 500 $
C, AD
RFA - 3
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3 400 000 $3 400 000 $
AD, AG
UFA - 2
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1 700 000 $1 700 000 $
C
UFA - 2
Défenseur gaucherDéfenseur droitierGardien de but
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4 875 000 $4 875 000 $
DG
M-NTC
UFA - 3
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3 500 000 $3 500 000 $
DD
UFA - 2
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875 000 $875 000 $
DG/DD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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925 000 $925 000 $ (Bonis de performance275 000 $$275K)
DD
RFA - 1
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1 000 000 $1 000 000 $
G
UFA - 1
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1 400 000 $1 400 000 $
DG/DD
RFA - 2
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766 667 $766 667 $
DD
UFA - 2
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3 979 000 $3 979 000 $
G
RFA - 1
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863 333 $863 333 $ (Bonis de performance420 000 $$420K)
DG/DD
RFA - 2
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762 500 $762 500 $
DD
UFA - 1
Laissés de côtéListe des blessés (IR)Liste des blessés à long terme (LTIR)
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7 850 000 $7 850 000 $
AG, AD
UFA - 8
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10 500 000 $10 500 000 $
G
NMC
UFA - 3
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950 000 $950 000 $ (Bonis de performance3 500 000 $$4M)
AD, AG
RFA - 2
Logo de Canadiens de Montréal
828 333 $828 333 $
DG/DD
RFA - 1

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8 juin 2023 à 8 h 58
#26
Joe
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Quoting: jonh514
I'll bite. Why is he a great goalie today? Does he have to "take another step" to reach his potential, or did he peak early?


Hart was decent this season, top 5 in GSAx for a fair chunk of the year.
He's also been apart of a really cruddy Flyers team, which certainly does not help his case; the good team buff exists. I don't doubt that he'd find himself back in the top 10 of goalies if he played on a stable team.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 6
#27
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Quoting: jonh514
I'll bite. Why is he a great goalie today? Does he have to "take another step" to reach his potential, or did he peak early?


Or did he take a step back that really wasn't, because he had a god awful team in front of him.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 7
#28
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FN Habs fans wonder why everyone thinks their fanbase are the biggest clowns. You'd have to give up that future late 2nd to have someone take back Allen's junk contract. So you are essentially giving up 37 for Hart which is laughable. Ive seen a lot 9f ****es trying to get Hart for pennies on the dollar but this might take the cake. Congrats.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 7
#29
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Hart was decent this season, top 5 in GSAx for a fair chunk of the year.
He's also been apart of a really cruddy Flyers team, which certainly does not help his case; the good team buff exists; I don't doubt that he'd find himself back in the top 10 of goalies if he played on a stable team.


If that analysis holds... Wouldn't the same be true of Monty? Do the Habs really need a better Goalie, or is Monty a really good goalie on a better team?
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 10
#30
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Quoting: Madrigal
FN Habs fans wonder why everyone thinks their fanbase are the biggest clowns. You'd have to give up that future late 2nd to have someone take back Allen's junk contract. So you are essentially giving up 37 for Hart which is laughable. Ive seen a lot 9f ****es trying to get Hart for pennies on the dollar but this might take the cake. Congrats.


Alright sir. As I mentioned in my description and several places in comments already, this is what I would pay for him today. It's not that far from where he himself was drafted and I don't see anything really special in him. He's an upgrade on Monty but really not that much of one.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 11
#31
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Quoting: jonh514
I would sign Monty to a 4 year extension at 3.5 ASAP and just ride a good enough goalie. The Habs should build an attack first team which has enough grid to win in the playoffs the same way.

The team with the best goalie no longer wins the cup.


Totally agree these absurd Carter hart trade suggestions, particularly to SJ sending their 4th overall+ for a guy who has proven nothing is absurd.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 12
#32
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Quoting: jonh514
If that analysis holds... Wouldn't the same be true of Monty? Do the Habs really need a better Goalie, or is Monty a really good goalie on a better team?


Think it depends.
He had a great year this year, but a horrible one like last.
Would like to see maybe one more year of a decent performance.
I still think I'd give the edge to Carter Hart since he's 2 years younger than Monty.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 12
#33
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Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
Or did he take a step back that really wasn't, because he had a god awful team in front of him.


Maybe he did. The Habs can't offer much better. We finished below the Flyers!
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 13
#34
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Think it depends.
He had a great year this year, but a horrible one like last.
Would like to see maybe one more year of a decent performance.
I still think I'd give the edge to Carter Hart since he's 2 years younger than Monty.


Fair. Hart had an awful 2021-22 as well!
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 13
#35
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Think it depends.
He had a great year this year, but a horrible one like last.
Would like to see maybe one more year of a decent performance.
I still think I'd give the edge to Carter Hart since he's 2 years younger than Monty.


Look at Hill for example. He was awful on a defensively bad Sharks team minus a couple good starts. Put him on a defensively responsible team and all the sudden he is a Conn Smythe candidate.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 15
#36
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Quoting: jonh514
Then let's not pull him. Sometimes teams trade for upside, like we did on Dach. In the case of Hart, I don't really see the upside playing out on the ice. I would be willing to pay for what he is today and a little more based on his age.


That's fair, I'm just stating that will not get us Hart. EDM, TOR, OTT, or LA would likely be more than willing to beat that offer as you have it.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 16
#37
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Quoting: Megalodon
Look at Hill for example. He was awful on a defensively bad Sharks team minus a couple good starts. Put him on a defensively responsible team and all the sudden he is a Conn Smythe candidate.


Look at Nedelkovjic =(.

As a goalie who played sort of high level youth hockey; I played better when my team was better. May be ironed out in the higher levels of hockey, but I doubt it. Everyone plays better when their team is better -- like a well oiled machine.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 18
#38
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Quoting: jonh514
Fair. Hart had an awful 2021-22 as well!


He also came into the league when he was 20 (and played a majority of games) which is extremely uncommon for goalies.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 19
#39
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Quoting: Just_A_Guess
That's fair, I'm just stating that will not get us Hart. EDM, TOR, OTT, or LA would likely be more than willing to beat that offer as you have it.


I will not cry if we miss out on Hart. There will be another Hart to take a swing at every year. There are only 64 positions available and a lot more hours than that.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 19
#40
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Quoting: jonh514
Maybe he did. The Habs can't offer much better. We finished below the Flyers!


Y'all are closer on the rebuild.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 20
#41
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Look at Nedelkovjic =(.

As a goalie who played sort of high level youth hockey; I played better when my team was better. May be ironed out in the higher levels of hockey, but I doubt it. Everyone plays better when their team is better -- like a well oiled machine.


Which speaks to my point that paying massive sums for a hyped up goalie is irrelevant if the team in front of him is average. Get an average goalie, pay a ton less for him and when your team improves the goalie improves with them.

Martin Jones is not a great goalie, never was. When SJ was good, he brought us to the finals. When SJ started to suck, Jones really sucked. So why pay a kings ransom for Hart who by the way hasnt done anything ‘elite’ in this league.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 21
#42
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Quoting: Megalodon
Which speaks to my point that paying massive sums for a hyped up goalie is irrelevant if the team in front of him is average. Get an average goalie, pay a ton less for him and when your team improves the goalie improves with them.

Martin Jones is not a great goalie, never was. When SJ was good, he brought us to the finals. When SJ started to suck, Jones really sucked. So why pay a kings ransom for Hart who by the way hasnt done anything ‘elite’ in this league.


Agreed. Think there's maybe 3 goalies that are resilient despite a cruddy team; Saros, Sorokin, and Hellebuyck. Could assume Vasilevskiy, but we don't have any samples.
There's also Giguere's insane run too.

Whoever pays Ullmark is going to be real disappointed.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 22
#43
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
He also came into the league when he was 20 (and played a majority of games) which is extremely uncommon for goalies.


I get that. His career wins at the end of his career will be impressively high as a result. But I don't feel he is stealing games like Price used to.

I really don't think the NHL wants the game to be about the Goalie anyway. They are pushing for scoring and skill. They want more Michigan goals and they keep changing the rules to ensure that they get them.
8 juin 2023 à 9 h 23
#44
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Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
Y'all are closer on the rebuild.


I'm not gonna overpay for the player he might one day be. I will overpay for the player he currently is.
8 juin 2023 à 9 h 25
#45
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Quoting: jonh514
I'm not gonna overpay for the player he might one day be. I will overpay for the player he currently is.


Fair enough but as someone else said that offer gets beat, and you're good with that I get.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 25
#46
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Quoting: jonh514
I get that. His career wins at the end of his career will be impressively high as a result. But I don't feel he is stealing games like Price used to.

I really don't think the NHL wants the game to be about the Goalie anyway. They are pushing for scoring and skill. They want more Michigan goals and they keep changing the rules to ensure that they get them.


I mean, Price was an elite top-3 goalie in the league. Only goalie on the trade block that I can see as somewhat comparable is Saros and Maybe Hellebuyck (Not too big on him though) and they're both gonna cost a pretty penny.
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 26
#47
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Quoting: Megalodon
Which speaks to my point that paying massive sums for a hyped up goalie is irrelevant if the team in front of him is average. Get an average goalie, pay a ton less for him and when your team improves the goalie improves with them.

Martin Jones is not a great goalie, never was. When SJ was good, he brought us to the finals. When SJ started to suck, Jones really sucked. So why pay a kings ransom for Hart who by the way hasnt done anything ‘elite’ in this league.


Agreed! I would pay 2 x 2nds and Allen because I believe Monty/Hart tandem wins more than Monty/Allen, but I am looking at him as a tandem starter, not a superstar.
8 juin 2023 à 9 h 26
#48
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Quoting: Boltsbeathabs
Fair enough but as someone else said that offer gets beat, and you're good with that I get.


For sure!
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8 juin 2023 à 9 h 27
#49
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Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
I mean, Price was an elite top-3 goalie in the league. Only goalie on the trade block that I can see as somewhat comparable is Saros and Maybe Hellebuyck (Not too big on him though) and they're both gonna cost a pretty penny.


I agree with you. Saros is special! Hart... Maybe sorta one day...
8 juin 2023 à 9 h 28
#50
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Quoting: jonh514
I agree with you. Saros is special! Hart... Maybe sorta one day...


Agreed. It's really either you draft a great goalie, or you deal with having a mediocre goalie.
Last time I can recall a top goalie being on the market was Bobrovsky.
 
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