That’s a very bad offer that’s easily rejected.

Maybe. I don't think Tor can stay status quo. They need to make multiple moves including a new GM that might have no loyalty to the group. Not sure a team will trade more for Marner but you could be right.

Why are we in need of major changes after the most successful season of the last two decades?

TOR deal probably needs more… and I don’t think the assets matter for TOR unless they are able to immediately flip them for a top line forward.

Also, where’s the 24 2nd and Rutta coming from in terms of value for Addison? Seems low.

if tor did that, i would be very shocked

Because their most successful season saw them get embarrassed in the 2nd round. Boston at least controlled the play in a few of their games vs Fla. Tor showed few signs of life.

I gave it another 3rd but maybe a 2nd in 2024 instead.

I'm not sure about the value of Addison. 5v5 he was ok but not good. A 3rd for him would be appropriate and Rutta could replace him on the defense. But Rutta isn't very good so a 2nd.

I don't think Jarry is taking a paycut unless they have to amputate one of this legs in the offseason or something

2 years and 3MM would be to regain his value. He would then be a UFA again. Currently, his value is at an all time low, having three seasons of ineffectiveness or injury in a row.

He doesn't have anything to regain though. He's the best UFA goalie available. Why would he take a paycut from an already low salary? And for multiple years and then sign another one when he's 30? One half season of injuries doesn't overshadow 3 and a half years of good, healthy play.

3 seasons of ineffectiveness or injury? Uh - what?

Adin Hill will disagree with your best UFA goalie available statement.

Jarry has been injured 2 of the last 3 seasons, playing a total of 86 games in those 2 seasons combined. The last year he was healthy, he put up mediocre numbers in the regular season. And his playoff numbers, ARE BAD. The only playoff he was healthy... a 3.18 GAA and 0.888 SV%.

So last three seasons have been either injured or ineffective.

He personally will probably disagree with it. But everyone else will agree with it. Hill hasn't even started more than 25 games in a season in his 6 year career - I don't even think he qualifies for the list.

Jarry has played 105 games the last 2 seasons - 10th most in the league. Not sure what you're looking at there bub. And that's 53 more games than Hill. The last year Jarry was healthy was last year - where he was 7th in sv% and GSAA and finished 7th in VEZINA voting while leading the Penguins to the 2nd best save % in the league.

So no - they haven't. The guy had one bad half season while playing injured.

Ok let's dig in then.
Jarry over the last 3 years:

2022
Goals Saved Above Expected: -2.8 (27th)
WAR: -0.47 (27th)
Injured during regular season
No playoffs

2021
Goals Saved Above Expected: 12.8 (11th)
WAR: 2.13 (11th)
Played a starters amount of games
Injured for playoffs

2020
Goals Saved Above Expected: -11.8 (20th)
WAR: -1.98 (20th)
Shortened regular season
Playoff GSAE: -7.9 (worst in NHL)
Playoff WAR: -1.32 (worst in NHL)

So that's 3 seasons of injury or ineffectiveness in which he had a collective negative GSAE and WAR. And the only season he was healthy for the playoffs, he was the worst goalie in the NHL.

So, he was injured and bad this year. He wasn't available in the playoffs last year (you know, when it matters most). He was bad in the regular season and playoffs the year before. How does this man deserve a raise? I'm guessing you don't run a business. Employees who are subpar or unavailable don't get big bumps in their salary.

You can think Jarry is a great goalie, but that data does not back that up. It was not one half season of injury. It was two seasons of injury and one where he was terrible.

As for Hill, I just watched him play a great game to stop the best player on Earth. He is making more with every game.

Okay let's dig in then

2020
6th most games played in the entire league
Of the 51 goalies that played 1000+ minutes
26th in save%
27th in GSAA

2021
8th most games played in the league
Of the 65 goalies that played 1000+ minutes
7th in save %
7th in GSAA

2022
20th most games played in the league
Rankings prior to playing with injury
7th in save %
6th in GSAA

Overall rankings last 3 seasons for the 69 goalies with 2000+ minutes
6th most games played
15th in save%
11th in GSAA
And it would be even better if he didn't play through injury this season.

So no - it's not. And most importantly, nothing you gave shows he's not the best UFA available. Nobody called him the best goalie in the league. I said he's the best UFA available

He was bad because this past season because he was injured. He was fantastic when healthy. He deserves a raise because he's a good goalie and the best UFA available. How does he not deserve a raise is really the pressing question here. Lol - except he's not subpar or unavailable. I sincerely hope you don't run a business haha - those poor employees man.

Yes - the data does. No - it was one half season of injury issues. And that half season playing injured was the only time he was terrible. You can think he's an awful goalie - but the data does not back that up. If Jarry is so bad wtf are you signing him for lol?

WOAH NO WAY HE HAD ONE GOOD GAME WOW LETS GIVE HIM 10 MIL I'M IN! One good game absolutely trumps for 4 years for sure - you totally convinced me

First man, let's calm it down. No reason to get emotional. I recognize that I played a part in that and I apologize.



Those are pretty bad numbers. The playoffs were even worse.

2021, very good regular season. Injured before playoffs.



Those numbers look good but he only played 24 games before the injury that took him out. Not really a large enough sample size to discount the performance when he returned. Especially after he reported that he was injured since the beginning of the season.

I am a bit confused. So you keep saying he was only bad for one half season of injury (which I assume is 2022). Yet you indicate he was one of the worst goalies in the league in 2020. This makes 2021 look like the outlier.

My point is, that he was bad in 2020, injured in the end of 2021 and has been injured and / bad since, why does he deserve a raise? He needs to recoup his value.

I promise I'm calm lol - no worries. It's all in good fun - sorry if the caps were a bit much haha.

Yeah - he was average in 2020. If your down years are a .909 save % - you're pretty good imo. He's played one playoff series. Plenty of goalies struggle in their first playoff series. MAF did. Vasilevskiy did.

24 games is as many as Hill has ever played in one season - and yet that's not a large enough sample size??? What about the 130 games he played in the 3 years prior with a .917 save%. Come on man - you're saying 20 games where he played injured(everyone knew) is his true self more than the previous 3 and a half years and 150ish games of good play?

2020 he was smack dab in the middle. Squeeze, in the middle. Not one of the worst. No it doesn't. He was top 7 in Vezina votes 2 of the last 4 years and was on pace for 3 before he got hurt. If anything 2020 looks like the outlier.

He was great in 2019. Average in 2020. Great in 2021. Great in 2022 prior to injuries and then awful. He deserves a raise because he's a good goalie and the best UFA available. He doesn't though. Sure there's value to recoup - because prior to this season he could've asked for like 6mil - but his value is still higher than 3mil haha.

I thought so, we've talked before and you've always been a reasonable and rational person.

I will concede he had a great season in 2021 (aside from getting hurt before the playoffs).

I would call 2022 a wash because he was great for half and bad for half, with varying levels of injury the whole time.

2020 was objectively bad. Really bad. -2 WAR bad. That's equivalent to James Reimer this year.

2019 numbers look good from a surface level but by advanced stats, he was replacement level. He had a 0 WAR.

So 2019 = replacement level
2020 = bad
2021 = great
2022 = mixed bag

I just don't think he would want to take a 4 or 5 year deal for 5MM (20 - 25 total) when he could take 2 years for around 3MM (6 total) then hit FA again with hopefully two healthy seasons and get a 5 year 8MM contract (40MM).

But that's just my view of things. I could be wrong. Maybe someone offers him 6 or 7MM a year? After watching Hextall for the last 2 years, I will admit I have no idea what GMs are thinking.

Same to you bub.

Tough to call 2022 a wash I think in terms of using it to judge how good he is. When a guy is fantastic and then goes on IR twice and comes back and sucks and says he's injured - it's pretty obvious that play isn't his true self. 2020 wasn't objectively really bad. He had a .909 sv% and was middle of the pack. You just called a guy replacement level that came 7th in Vezina votes lol.

2019 = great. 7th in Vezina
2020 = average
2021 = great. 7th in Vezina
2022 = great before injuries then very bad

And the answer to that is because he could get 2x5m right now and then sign the other deal you mentioned later. I don't see why you think a good goalie and the best UFA available would take a paycut from an already low salary? Look at what the recent contracts that have been given out for guys like Merzlikins, Husso, Campbell, Bernier, Demko etc.

I wouldn't go as high 6 or 7 - but someone will definitely give him 4.5 -5. So you're hoping he takes one crazy hometown discount haha.

I mean I don't consider Vezina voting because they can be swayed by good looking numbers. If a team is great and the goalie has a 0.950 save percentage but never faces any quality shots, he will get votes.

In 2019 Jarry had the following save % depending on the situation (ranking is vs goalies with at least 20 starts)
Low danger: 0.974 (1st)
Medium danger: 0.859 (42nd)
High danger: 0.738 (9th)

For reference Matt Murray's numbers the same year:
Low danger: 0.960 (52nd)
Medium danger: 0.842 (52nd)
High danger: 0.728 (12th)

So it seemed the Pens defenseman played a strong role in preventing medium and high danger shots. Jarry made the saves, Murray didn't. That's why his save% looks good but was more an artifact of strong dmen and two-way forwards preventing dangerous shots.

Also for reference (and a point for you), Jarry this year was also top 5 at preventing low danger shot goals. He was bottom 5 at preventing medium and high danger shot goals. So perhaps even his downturn this season was less him and more a bad defense letting him down.

The numbers indicate Jarry probably won't win you a series but he won't lose the series for you either.

I will say, he could get 4.5 or 5MM per in the open market. I would give it to him (if it was a 2 year deal) but there is a lot of risk. If he wanted more, I would prefer to trade for Hellebuyck or Saros (as I'm sure every NHL team would).

I mean - awards and voting clearly mean something though. They don't just put bad players near the top of their position.

That's save % though - not shots per 60. Those numbers show how good the goalie was saving shots at each of those dangers - not how often the team in front of them gives up those chances. I think what you're looking for is chances per 60 at each of those categories, no?

The Pens overall team defense wasn't great this year - although they were significantly worse in front of Desmith than Jarry. I think they were fairly average in front of Jarry. Horrendous in front of Desmith. Okay cool - at least we can agree he would get something like that on the open market. That's all I was trying to say. My guess is 3x4.5 is what they end up giving him. I think he could have asked for around 5.5mil AAV if he played the same the whole season - but knocking him around 1mil for the injuries/bad play in the 2nd half. I wouldn't give him over 5. I'd rather take a risk on a cheap goalie and make the skaters better at that point.

I would pretty much give up anything for Saros. Hellebuyck I'd be somewhat interested in - but his higher AAV and shorter term don't make him as appealing to me

Ha. I couldn't find shots / 60 according to danger in the 2 sites I like. I'm sure they're there but I was being lazy and just inferred based on overall save % and various degrees of danger.

It was not good team defense but guys like Dumoulin did get a little better as the year went on. They need to do something to make it better or it won't matter who is in net.

I would agree on your range and term. Maybe a little less but looking at his numbers, I blame him less and the defense more.

Saros would be interesting. He would probably need the 23 1st and 24 1st along with Pickering. His comparable would be hard since goalies of his ability, age, and term are rarely available.

Hellebuyck should go for around a high 2nd / low 1st, a backup goalie, and a 6th or so. That was about what Bishop got and they have remarkably similar stats, age when traded, and term remaining.

It's all good haha - not trying to give you homework. I'm not saying the stats you gave are useless or anything - just that they don't really show the point you were trying to make.

Dumo did get better as the year went on for sure. I'm sure spending that time on the 3rd pair for confidence and also less ice time in the middle of the season helped him out a good bit. I agree there - team defense needs to be better. Especially the forwards imo. That's why I worry about going after one of the BOS goalies - who knows what they're going to look like in front of our team defense after playing behind BOS haha.

Fair enough. What people get paid also depends on what the market looks like too ya know? If there were a lot of good goalies available then maybe he's forced to come in more around what you're thinking. Lack of availability at a certain position gives them more market value.

Even me, who is all for going all in and loves Saros, probably wouldn't do that for Saros. Maybe, possibly, for two of those pieces and then a mid pick or something. People on this forum are definitely overestimating what Helle will go for. I could see him going for similar to Kuemper though - which was like a 1st, 3rd, and decent prospect.

Even men, who is all for going all in and loves Saros, probably wouldn't do that for Saros. Maybe, possibly, for two of those pieces and then a mid pick or something. People on this forum are definitely overestimating what Helle will go for. I could see him going for similar to Kuemper though - which was like a 1st, 3rd, and decent prospect.[/quote]

Kuemper could be a good comparison. B prospect, a protected 1st, and a conditional 3rd for Hellebuyck at 50% salary.

That would be around Poulin, 2024 1st and a conditional 3rd...

Kuemper could be a good comparison. B prospect, a protected 1st, and a conditional 3rd for Hellebuyck at 50% salary.

That would be around Poulin, 2024 1st and a conditional 3rd...[/quote]

I didn't even realize Kuemper was 50% retention. I think I'd take that if I was the Pens to be honest. I'm not as high on Poulin as most I feel like.