Quoting: Devil
That’s a terrible argument
just because a player is already established doesn’t mean they have more value
Luke Hughes is gonna be better than Pettersson. i’ll be willing to bet a large amount of money. it’s stupid to trade a 19 year old, former top 5 pick, for a 27 YO dman.
Take off those biased black and yellow glasses
It's not biased to look at facts.
Let's look at the defenseman chosen 3, 4 or 5 from 2007 to 2017
2007: Hickey and Alzner
Both played solid hockey for 7-8 seasons. Pettersson's floor.
2008: Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn
Pietriangelo is the only one better than Pett here.
2009: None in 3-5
2010: Gudbranson
Bounced around a lot. Better recently. Again, equivalent to Pett now but towards the end of his career.
2011: Adam Larsson
Probably equivalent to Petterson as a shut down defenseman. Gets a bad rap for the Hall trade. Not his fault.
2012: Griffin Reinhard and Morgan Rielly
Talk about night and day. Wow.
2013: Seth Jones
There is a guy you can argue has been better than Pettersson.
2014: None
2015: Noah Hanifin
Arguably better than Pettersson.
2016: Olli Juolevi
Not yet established if he ever will be.
2017: Cale Makar
Best of the bunch.
So in that time frame we have 5 players better than Pettersson, 1 or 2 equivalent to Petterson at his current age, and 6 or 7 who were worse than Pettersson.
By that logic, around 39% of guys drafted in that range in that time period were better.
Looking at top ten picks from 2007 to 2014
30 All Stars
18 Current NHL regulars
32 Non-Regulars / Out of the NHL (most fell out by 5 years)
So in an 7 year span 48 / 70 players drafted in the top 10 are still in the NHL. That's 68%. I would consider Pettersson to be not quite All Star worthy so that's 30 / 70 that are better than Pettersson or 43%.
So is Hughes in that 39 - 43%? Or is he in the other half?
Prospects are volatile. And a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Chances are Hughes will be around what Pettersson currently is. He could be Makar. He could be Reinhard. There is more risk to the team trading the established player, so it will take two prospects to mitigate the risk.
But you can disagree. That is your right. But don't assume I am biased. I rely on facts and logic.