Spit out my coffee looking at that Miller deal. Need to tack on 2-3M to that AAV.

Not sure I understand what you mean but I take it as you think I need to add 2-3 M per year? And that is just crazy, that is a 3 year deal for almost 4 M, which is more than fair.

Yeah. I mean... I don't think the contract is correct. But I also didn't think it was so egregious that I'd spit out my coffee. haha. If Miller takes something that low, it's only gonna be one or two years, not three. Otherwise, yeah, he will need $1.5 to $2M more with term. Wouldn't be surprised to see him take a one year contract to get through the flat cap and then get a proper contract next summer.

If you need his cap hit to be this low, the Rangers will probably have to give him at least 6 years of term and front load the contract.
23-24: $6.5M
24-25: $5.5M
25-26: $4M
26-27: $3M
27-28: $2M
28-29: $2.5M

That way he gets paid and averages out to a cap hit of $3.92M.

Yes, reading your comment I realise that you are right. Probably for 2 years then or bump it up half a mil for three then? Or...

not for just 3 years. At most he'll get 4m for 3 years. Chytil was projected to be the most expensive and signed for under 4.5m for 4 years. Even if they are "equal", taking a year off of that would lower the AAV.

If you "tack on 2-3m AAV", you are also "tacking" on another 3+ years

It's a bridge deal for three years. Noah Dobson had a better year in his RFA season last season and signed for 3x$4M on his bridge deal - I would assume K'Andre signs a bridge deal in the $3.5-4M range and kicks the big contract a few years down the road, when the cap situation will work more in his favor.

That's how it works for old ufas, opposite for rfas. He gets 2x4m or 5x5.6m ish. Same with the front loading salary stuff, it's the cap that matters

Huh? Yeah. But what I am saying is that he has earned MORE money and that it might be smart to lock him up now, because in a couple years he could be asking for A LOT more money than the Rags will be able to afford under the cap. If he doesn't like the number, he can opt for arbitration, and with his production, arbitration will probably award him more than $4M. If he wants to get paid NOW but the Rangers need the cap hit to be under $4M, they will need to give him term and front load. You can structure RFA contracts that way too.

Yeah no, Miller is better than Dobson by a pretty significant margin defensively. The only reason Dobson has better offensive numbers is due to PP opportunity. Miller clears Dobson 10/10. Him getting anything less than 5 million a year is absurd, bridge deal or not

Who said he had to bridge? Why would he take one? He’s the rangers second best defenseman. He’s earned a contract that pays him 5-6 million a year (in my opinion more)- bridge deal or not.

Miller has a -3.5 defensive GSVA this year while Dobson had a 5.9 last year. And Miller this year has nearly the same PP opportunity that Dobson did last year (1:55 vs. Dobson's 2:37.) Add in the fact that RHD are currently valued slightly higher than LHD like Miller and you've got a very strong contract comp.

The numbers you're throwing around for a bridge deal are unprecedented, and that alone means they're extremely unlikely to happen. Mikhail Sergachev played nearly 23 playoff minutes a night for a Cup winner and *his* bridge deal only came in at a $4.8M AAV - why would Miller warrant a bigger contract than him?

Because he’s better than any of the players that you’ve mentioned

there's a ton of numbers that disagree with you buddy. I think Key's a great player, for sure, I just think your valuation on him is completely out of line with how the NHL works.

to expand on the Sergachev comp: Mikhail had played 3 full NHL seasons by the time he signed his extension, scoring 40, 32, & 34 points in them. He added in another 17 over 46 playoff games, and, again, played nearly 23 minutes a night on the Lightning team that won the Cup in 2019-20. He signed a 3x$4.8M bridge deal entering his age-22 season.

Miller scored a combined 32 points over 135 GP in his first 2 NHL seasons before getting 41 (so far) this year. He's got 7 points in 20 playoff GP to date, and while he still may win a Cup in his ELC, I think Boston and Carolina are going to make it incredibly difficult to do that. But even if he does, he'll have worse offensive production paired with worse defensive/possession numbers than Sergachev had during his ELC, while also being a year older at the time he signs his extension.

So seeing as the cap is more or less in the same place it was prior to the 2020-21 season when Sergachev signed his bridge deal, do you have any other reasons as to why Miller would sign for a higher AAV, higher than any bridge contract for a defenseman in recent memory? Would love to hear it.

I don’t care about points. Points (especially as a defenseman) are a product of opportunity, playing time, and who you’re surrounded by. Miller’s on pace to put up 45ish? This season, which IMO is his first full season playing big minutes (I know he played a ton in the playoff run).

Defense possession numbers- what are you looking at? Genuinely curious. I’m using EH’s RAPM models and they’re not telling the same story.

Don't pay for EH so using NST's on-ice numbers - Sergachev in 2019-20 had a higher xG%, was better at suppressing high danger chances and goals, and generally Tampa was better at controlling play while he was on the ice - in fact, he was better in all 3 of his first 3 NHL seasons at that than Miller has been. I understand that RAPM tries to cut out some noise from the affect teammates and QoC can have between two players, but sorry, I'm already subscribing to too many sports sites to add another!

Beyond that, though - I think it gets into splitting hair territories, because we can sit here all day arguing over which analytics provide a better picture of a player and it would be ignoring the simple fact that NHL GMs are loathe to set precedents when it comes to RFA players - while I won't disagree that in a completely open market Miller could get $5-6M AAV, there's no way in hell Chris Drury is going to go that far above and beyond that most recent highwater mark for an RFA defenseman, especially not in a flat cap world. What's the worst that'll happen to him, another team actually getting off their ass and offer sheeting someone?

Honestly yeah man I think one of Miller or Laf is ripe for the picking in terms of an O/S. Will it happen? Probably not. More than likely not. But a team like MTL has the means/motive to go after a guy like Laf or Miller (space, Gorton drafted them, fills a need). Will it happen, probably not, but it wouldn’t shock me if it did