Worst Contracts in my opinion

TAILLE DE LA FORMATION	PLAFOND SALARIAL	CAP HIT	EXCÉDENTS	BONIS	ESPACE SOUS LE PLAFOND SALARIAL
20	82 500 000 $	147 760 000 $	0 $	0 $	-65 260 000 $

Ailier gauche	Centre	Ailier droit
Lee, Anders 7 000 000 $7 000 000 $ AG NTC UFA - 4	Seguin, Tyler 9 850 000 $9 850 000 $ C, AD NMC UFA - 5	Gallagher, Brendan 6 500 000 $6 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC, NMC UFA - 5
Benn, Jamie 9 500 000 $9 500 000 $ AG, C NMC UFA - 3	Bäckström, Nicklas 9 200 000 $9 200 000 $ C NMC UFA - 3	Anderson, Josh 5 500 000 $5 500 000 $ AD, AG M-NTC UFA - 5
Palat, Ondrej 6 000 000 $6 000 000 $ AG, AD NMC UFA - 5	Kuznetsov, Evgeny 3 900 000 $3 900 000 $ C M-NTC UFA - 3	Rust, Bryan 5 125 000 $5 125 000 $ AD, AG NMC UFA - 6
Huberdeau, Jonathan 5 900 000 $5 900 000 $ AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 1	Copp, Andrew 5 625 000 $5 625 000 $ C, AG, AD M-NTC UFA - 5	Oshie, T.J. 5 750 000 $5 750 000 $ AD M-NTC UFA - 3

Défenseur gaucher	Défenseur droitier	Gardien de but
Nurse, Darnell 9 250 000 $9 250 000 $ DG NMC UFA - 8	Jones, Seth 9 500 000 $9 500 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 8	Bobrovsky, Sergei 10 000 000 $10 000 000 $ G NMC UFA - 4
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver 7 260 000 $7 260 000 $ DG NMC UFA - 5	Trouba, Jacob 8 000 000 $8 000 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 4	Grubauer, Philipp 5 900 000 $5 900 000 $ G NTC UFA - 5
Vlasic, Marc-Édouard 7 000 000 $7 000 000 $ DG/DD NMC UFA - 4	Doughty, Drew 11 000 000 $11 000 000 $ DD NMC UFA - 5

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 14

#1

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Palat contract is bad but not terrible. Buyout in year 5 is super manageable and even in year 4 wouldn't be a disaster. Devils have so much cap space the next few years that they were able to afford it.

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 16

#2

Howie

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Only one I'd say is borderline is Kuznetsov as his base salary is lower than his aav and has had past success just last season being a ppg player.

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17 mars 2023 à 23 h 19

#3

dgibb10

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

Palat contract is bad but not terrible. Buyout in year 5 is super manageable and even in year 4 wouldn't be a disaster. Devils have so much cap space the next few years that they were able to afford it.

I'd be a lot happier with it if it didn't have a full NMC. There's also only 22 qualifying LWs based on my criteria
LWs
Idk who you'd say has a worse deal, but guys I considered were Ovi (age+term+AAV), Panarin (AAV), Skinner (age+AAV), Gaudreau (AAV+term), and Kreider

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 22

#4

pretzelcoatl

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Quoting: dgibb10

I'd be a lot happier with it if it didn't have a full NMC. There's also only 22 qualifying LWs based on my criteria
LWs
Idk who you'd say has a worse deal, but guys I considered were Ovi (age+term+AAV), Panarin (AAV), Skinner (age+AAV), Gaudreau (AAV+term), and Kreider

I'd say if any of them, Skinner's is worse. He's playing better than he was, but to my knowledge he's still underperforming his comparables

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 24

#5

dgibb10

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Quoting: Howie

Only one I'd say is borderline is Kuznetsov as his base salary is lower than his aav and has had past success just last season being a ppg player.

He was the last addition, others considered from this list of Cs (expiring 2025 or later to qualify) Cs
Tavares, Strome, Trocheck, Hertl, Kadri, Schenn, Copp, Hayes, Coyle, Pageau, Johansen.

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 24

#6

MoSeider53

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Andrew Copp is hardly the worst contract in Detroit, That would belong to Ben Chiarot. Andrew Copp is still productive.

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 27

#7

OldNYIfan

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I wouldn't have Benn on the list this season. He's the second highest scoring forward on his team, outscoring such worthies as Nico Hischier, Johnny Gaudreau and Jake Guentzel, with a mighty plus-minus number (which I know is a coarse statistic), and he's three million dollars cheaper than his cap hit, which therefore isn't as bad as it looks.

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 30

#8

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

I wouldn't have Benn on the list this season. He's the second highest scoring forward on his team, outscoring such worthies as Nico Hischier, Johnny Gaudreau and Jake Guentzel, with a mighty plus-minus number (which I know is a coarse statistic), and he's three million dollars cheaper than his cap hit, which therefore isn't as bad as it looks.

I only considered from a cap perspective.
Hischier is A) a center B) 2 points behind in 2 less games C) a decade younger D) 2 mill cheaper E) an elite defensive center

Gaudreau was considered but he's a lot younger

Guentzel doesn't have term

17 mars 2023 à 23 h 41

#9

OldNYIfan

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Modifié 17 mars 2023 à 23 h 46. Raison: added a thought

Quoting: dgibb10

I only considered from a cap perspective.
Hischier is A) a center B) 2 points behind in 2 less games C) a decade younger D) 2 mill cheaper E) an elite defensive center

Gaudreau was considered but he's a lot younger

Guentzel doesn't have term

If an older guy is outperforming a younger guy, how is his contract bad by comparison as a result of his age?
Furthermore, what does being a center vs being a LW have to do with whether the contract delivers better value? In fact, it works just the opposite way in the case of Hischier: centers should be MORE productive than wingers. Moreover, your math skills need improvement. Hischier isn't $2 million cheaper than Benn, he's $1.5 million more expensive. (Hischier is due $32 million over the next 4 seasons, Benn $13 million over the next two.)
I mentioned Guentzel not because I think that his contract is bad, but just to note that if a player is outperforming one of the premier offensive players in the league, it's pretty snarky to consider him to be on a bad contract.
In short, what you've done here is list big contracts, not bad ones.

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 0

#10

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

If an older guy is outperforming a younger guy, how is his contract bad by comparison as a result of his age?
Furthermore, what does being a center vs being a LW have to do with whether the contract delivers better value? In fact, it works just the opposite way in the case of Hischier: centers should be MORE productive than wingers. Moreover, your math skills need improvement. Hischier isn't $2 million cheaper than Benn, he's $1.5 million more expensive. (Hischier is due $32 million over the next 4 seasons, Benn $13 million over the next two.)
I mentioned Guentzel not because I think that his contract is bad, but just to note that if a player is outperforming one of the premier offensive players in the league, it's pretty snarky to consider him to be on a bad contract.
In short, what you've done here is list big contracts, not bad ones.

Bc if you read the description, I'm comparing players at their respective positions.
So hischier is compared to other Cs. and Benn is compared to other LWs.

And if you read description, you would have also seen I based it off AAV not cash. And like I just said, I'm viewing from a cap perspective.

Age matters bc a 24 year old will maintain/improve as he reaches his prime, while a 33 year old will regress as he gets older.

Hischier's AAV is 7.25, Benns 9.5.

You're welcome to look at the list of 26 qualifying LWs and tell me which you'd have as a worse contract than Benn going forward

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 0

#11

Levig01

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How is risto, hayes, sanheim, coots not on here

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 1

#12

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

If an older guy is outperforming a younger guy, how is his contract bad by comparison as a result of his age?
Furthermore, what does being a center vs being a LW have to do with whether the contract delivers better value? In fact, it works just the opposite way in the case of Hischier: centers should be MORE productive than wingers. Moreover, your math skills need improvement. Hischier isn't $2 million cheaper than Benn, he's $1.5 million more expensive. (Hischier is due $32 million over the next 4 seasons, Benn $13 million over the next two.)
I mentioned Guentzel not because I think that his contract is bad, but just to note that if a player is outperforming one of the premier offensive players in the league, it's pretty snarky to consider him to be on a bad contract.
In short, what you've done here is list big contracts, not bad ones.

Centers are more valuable than wingers at equal production bc they are generally play drivers*

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 4

#13

dgibb10

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Quoting: Levig01

How is risto, hayes, sanheim, coots not on here

Hayes considered, Risto I got a lot of overpaid defensemen so I stopped at around 5.5 mill to make life easier, prob should be considered, sanheim doesn't reach cutoff, Coots ignored bc LTIR means little cap implications

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 11

#14

OldNYIfan

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Modifié 18 mars 2023 à 0 h 23. Raison: added a thought

Quoting: dgibb10

Centers are more valuable than wingers at equal production bc they are generally play drivers*

My point exactly. That's why a center who scores fewer points than a winger is being outperformed, and is underperforming his contract.

Quoting: dgibb10

Bc if you read the description, I'm comparing players at their respective positions.
So hischier is compared to other Cs. and Benn is compared to other LWs.

And if you read description, you would have also seen I based it off AAV not cash. And like I just said, I'm viewing from a cap perspective.

Age matters bc a 24 year old will maintain/improve as he reaches his prime, while a 33 year old will regress as he gets older.

Hischier's AAV is 7.25, Benns 9.5.

You're welcome to look at the list of 26 qualifying LWs and tell me which you'd have as a worse contract than Benn going forward

And you've conceded my point that you've chosen the wrong criteria for the analysis you're performing. You've age-biased, restricted the group of results to 4 per position, and used the patently flawed standard of cap hit vs. salary. Because the term "worst contracts" is value-based, not amount-based. If one player has a cap hit of $8 million and an actual salary of $6 million, and another player has a cap hit of $6 million and an actual salary of $8 million, and they both score the same number of points, who has the "bad" contract? To say that Benn is underperforming Hischier when his actual salary is less than his cap hit is both childish and absurd.

Quoting: dgibb10

Age matters bc a 24 year old will maintain/improve as he reaches his prime, while a 33 year old will regress as he gets older.

How does your expectation that a player's performance will improve over time or at least stay the same feature in what is supposed to be a mathematical analysis of whether a contract is a good one today?

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 12

#15

Howie

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Quoting: dgibb10

He was the last addition, others considered from this list of Cs (expiring 2025 or later to qualify) Cs
Tavares, Strome, Trocheck, Hertl, Kadri, Schenn, Copp, Hayes, Coyle, Pageau, Johansen.

Oh 100% Kadri that deal is gonna be awful and it isn't great rn either

18 mars 2023 à 0 h 15

#16

Levig01

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Quoting: dgibb10

Hayes considered, Risto I got a lot of overpaid defensemen so I stopped at around 5.5 mill to make life easier, prob should be considered, sanheim doesn't reach cutoff, Coots ignored bc LTIR means little cap implications

But sanhiem extension is 6.25m x 8

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18 mars 2023 à 0 h 34

#17

TheFastAndTheFleuryous

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I think this is the first list I haven’t seen both Duchene and Johansen on so it’s a win in my book

18 mars 2023 à 2 h 40

#18

dgibb10

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Quoting: TheFastAndTheFleuryous

I think this is the first list I haven’t seen both Duchene and Johansen on so it’s a win in my book

Johansen not having a NTC helped keep him off

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18 mars 2023 à 2 h 41

#19

dgibb10

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Quoting: Levig01

But sanhiem extension is 6.25m x 8

Ahh forgot abt that

18 mars 2023 à 2 h 51

#20

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

My point exactly. That's why a center who scores fewer points than a winger is being outperformed, and is underperforming his contract.

And you've conceded my point that you've chosen the wrong criteria for the analysis you're performing. You've age-biased, restricted the group of results to 4 per position, and used the patently flawed standard of cap hit vs. salary. Because the term "worst contracts" is value-based, not amount-based. If one player has a cap hit of $8 million and an actual salary of $6 million, and another player has a cap hit of $6 million and an actual salary of $8 million, and they both score the same number of points, who has the "bad" contract? To say that Benn is underperforming Hischier when his actual salary is less than his cap hit is both childish and absurd.

How does your expectation that a player's performance will improve over time or at least stay the same feature in what is supposed to be a mathematical analysis of whether a contract is a good one today?

um because the contracts don't expire this year. And age leading to player decline is generally how these contracts become bad in the first place, so acknowledging age decline through the life of a contract is important? Jamie Benn will still have that 9.5 mill cap hit at 35.

Again, Idk why you're stuck on Hischier vs Benn. He's just as good production wise while being a much bigger play driver, lightyears ahead defensively, while playing a more expensive position (meaning it would cost a lot more to replace hischier than benn).
In addition he's not expected to regress through the life of the contract, and has a cheaper AAV. Are you that worried about the cash, when btw nico's cash hit this year is 4.5, then 7.75,7.75, or a grand total of 1 million dollars total more over the next 3 years.

18 mars 2023 à 2 h 51

#21

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

My point exactly. That's why a center who scores fewer points than a winger is being outperformed, and is underperforming his contract.

And you've conceded my point that you've chosen the wrong criteria for the analysis you're performing. You've age-biased, restricted the group of results to 4 per position, and used the patently flawed standard of cap hit vs. salary. Because the term "worst contracts" is value-based, not amount-based. If one player has a cap hit of $8 million and an actual salary of $6 million, and another player has a cap hit of $6 million and an actual salary of $8 million, and they both score the same number of points, who has the "bad" contract? To say that Benn is underperforming Hischier when his actual salary is less than his cap hit is both childish and absurd.

How does your expectation that a player's performance will improve over time or at least stay the same feature in what is supposed to be a mathematical analysis of whether a contract is a good one today?

Hischier's contract is also widely regarded as a bargain btw

18 mars 2023 à 3 h 0

#22

dgibb10

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Quoting: OldNYIfan

My point exactly. That's why a center who scores fewer points than a winger is being outperformed, and is underperforming his contract.

And you've conceded my point that you've chosen the wrong criteria for the analysis you're performing. You've age-biased, restricted the group of results to 4 per position, and used the patently flawed standard of cap hit vs. salary. Because the term "worst contracts" is value-based, not amount-based. If one player has a cap hit of $8 million and an actual salary of $6 million, and another player has a cap hit of $6 million and an actual salary of $8 million, and they both score the same number of points, who has the "bad" contract? To say that Benn is underperforming Hischier when his actual salary is less than his cap hit is both childish and absurd.

How does your expectation that a player's performance will improve over time or at least stay the same feature in what is supposed to be a mathematical analysis of whether a contract is a good one today?

Let's look at non ELC Cs making less than 7.25. List

Take off Mckinnon, Horvat, Miller, Larkin, PLD, Barzal, Thomas, Hintz, bc after this year all of them (unless PLD just signs his QO, and hischier's better than him anyway) will be on contracts upwards of 8.

And I'm only seeing 1 C better than hischier on this list making less, and that's Tage Thompson.

Nico Hischier's contract is a bargain and at least 1 mill less than what'd he'd get today.

18 mars 2023 à 6 h 6

#23

Blacktown

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Quoting: TheFastAndTheFleuryous

I think this is the first list I haven’t seen both Duchene and Johansen on so it’s a win in my book

Johansen definitely belongs on this list lol

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18 mars 2023 à 10 h 32

#24

OldNYIfan

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Quoting: dgibb10

um because the contracts don't expire this year. And age leading to player decline is generally how these contracts become bad in the first place, so acknowledging age decline through the life of a contract is important? Jamie Benn will still have that 9.5 mill cap hit at 35.

Again, Idk why you're stuck on Hischier vs Benn. He's just as good production wise while being a much bigger play driver, lightyears ahead defensively, while playing a more expensive position (meaning it would cost a lot more to replace hischier than benn).
In addition he's not expected to regress through the life of the contract, and has a cheaper AAV. Are you that worried about the cash, when btw nico's cash hit this year is 4.5, then 7.75,7.75, or a grand total of 1 million dollars total more over the next 3 years.

I'm "stuck" on Hischier vs Benn because it should be the easiest for you to understand, but it's obvious that you don't, because several of the points you just made only reinforce my conclusion. None of the arguments you have advanced have come close to explaining why Benn's contract is a "bad" one, which is an objective judgment, let alone one of the "worst" contracts, which is a subjective judgement comparing bad contracts. Your complete misconception about what constitutes a "bad" contract in the first place is the root cause of your lack of understanding about Benn (or Hischier, for that matter), and thus about this entire subject: it is a fallacy to think that the biggest contracts are the worst.

18 mars 2023 à 10 h 49

#25

dgibb10

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Modifié 18 mars 2023 à 10 h 54

Quoting: OldNYIfan

I'm "stuck" on Hischier vs Benn because it should be the easiest for you to understand, but it's obvious that you don't, because several of the points you just made only reinforce my conclusion. None of the arguments you have advanced have come close to explaining why Benn's contract is a "bad" one, which is an objective judgment, let alone one of the "worst" contracts, which is a subjective judgement comparing bad contracts. Your complete misconception about what constitutes a "bad" contract in the first place is the root cause of your lack of understanding about Benn (or Hischier, for that matter), and thus about this entire subject: it is a fallacy to think that the biggest contracts are the worst.

Bc he's an aging player with the third highest contract of all LWs.

Meanwhile there's at least 15 LWs I'd take over him.

Nico hischier meanwhile has the 33rd highest C contract (might go lower), and there's also only about 15-20 Cs I'd take over him

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