-Lafreniere is a legitimate offersheet candidate.
-It's Kotkaniemi on steroids, because he actually might be perceived to have very high upside that a team with cap space on the upswing could offer him 1 year at 6-8M or a 5 year deal at 6-8M, and if would be difficult for the Rangers to match.
-Offer sheets rarely happen, but the threat of them does influence teams to deal players to hedge against them (Hamilton at the draft BOS to CGY).
-Let's say the FLA pick is in that 8-12 type ballpark where the Rangers might have a top 10 talent fall to them.

While I can see your logic here. I think the Rangers would look for a replacement roster player, to combine with draft picks. Honestly (even though they just picked him up last draft he hasn't really fit in well.) I can see Kirby Dach, + 2nd rounder.

I like the logic for this, but I could see them rather a depth piece than picks. Maybe Dvorak retained plus florida's first and a late round pick

Ya the habs would have 0 intersst in this.

Hughes and Gorton talked a lot on handling the market and a bust 1st overall francophone would not survive in montreal.

Drouin v2

No interest in dach tbh

While I agree, if the Rags can't afford what he wants, I think they'd want a player than can affect the roster right now than a prospect that will maybe help in 3 years. Your window is now.

tbh, Laf will be a part of the core regardless. We'll be able to afford him, He's gonna be the asset we work around.

Oh yeah 100%
I'm guessing they bridge him 2-3 years for 2500k-4000k

I think I can see them also resigning Tarasenko.

If they trade Lafreniere, it's partly motivated by the cap. They won't want to take back players like Dvorak.

It comes down to whether they want to push to try and keep Kane and/or Tarasenko. If they keep either of them, it pushes Lafreniere even further down the depth chart. The only reason they would do the trade I proposed is if they have completely given up on him, or they still think he can become a star but feel the threat of an offer sheet is too risky.

Someone could come out and offer him 1 year at between 6-8 million, with the idea that a 5-8 year extension can be signed when eligible in January. That would be a toxic offer sheet for the Rangers because if they match, they almost certainly lose out on Kane or Tarasenko. They also would have to qualify Lafreniere at 6M or take him to club elected arbitration, which could get him down to about 5M.

If the Rangers do a trade like I outlined, part of it would be cap motivated. I think they prefer a top 10 talent prospect in a strong draft over Dach.

And I don't think the Habs would trade a top 10 pick for someone who hasn't fully found his stride on the Rags(mainly due to being pushed down the chart)

Not sure if I’m understanding you correctly, but did you just say Kirby Dach hasn’t fit in well with the Habs? He’s fit in amazingly well. He’s having the best season of his career and will only get better.

They just made a similar deal to acquire Dach. Dach was in a similar situation to Lafreniere, in that he as a blue chip prospect who had failed to become a star on his ELC.

The thing with Lafreniere is that he already puts up a pace of close to 20/40 while playing hard. Most teams would be happy if an 8th-12th type pick developed into that by the time their ELC is done. It's only a disappointment with Lafreniere because he was expected to become a superstar. While Lafreniere may not end up as the player he was hyped as at the draft, he still has upside to become a top 6 forward.

If the Rangers can get Lafreniere signed to a market value bridge deal (2.5 or so million x 2), they don't trade him. The trade would be predicated on the threat of a possible offer sheet that over-pays Lafreniere in the short term to exploit the Rangers cap situation.