Fair value

I think, like Gaudreau last summer, maybe we NJD fans may be getting a little over our skies on Meier. Especially at the cost of losing Holtz.

The path goal-scorers take isn’t always a slow progression like centers, dmen. There are usually big step changes around age 20-22. Just look at other guys around the league…including Meier. Further, guys with the pedigree of a top-10 pick and top-25 overall prospect are very rarely moved. Especially if they have a shot like Holtz’s. And have 2.5 years on ELC. Fortunately, NJD has tons of ammo to work with since we have been a rebuilding for years, so there are plenty of other alternatives (unlike, NYI, who really had just Dufour or Raty).

So I’d think NJD passes on anything that includes Holtz.

Or Holtz can be another wahlstrom and flop. To get an 80pt + power forward , you do it

Because we don’t have to. We have plenty of other assets.

Also…while it’s early to call Wahlstrom a flop, I don’t think he ever had a golden shot like Holtz.

But @csick is right. He's an 80-point forward. He's 26. He can create his own scoring chances and converts them. That's extremely valuable. Unlike many other high-scoring wingers, he's not a product of the system or talent around him. Meier is legit. The cost to acquire him should be very high because that's his value.

I'm sure y'all are opposed, but I want to hear what you think of Nemec + Holtz (with the assumption that Meier would sign an extension upon arrival). While Holtz sounds like he'll pan out to be a true top-6 wing, historically, less than 18% of players who are drafted between picks 6 and 10 end up even close to how good Meier is now. If the Devils believe they have a legit shot at the cup this year and next year, who is helping them more, Meier? Or Nemec and Holtz? Easy, it's Meier. I understand the value of Nemec and Holtz, but neither are likely to be true key pieces (top6F/top4D) next year, let alone for this playoff run. The Devils would still have Luke Hughes on the way. Maybe the Sharks send Bonino and/or Reimer if NJ wants them as well. The Sharks should expect to take back Johnsson to make the money work (or another cap dump).

Holtz and Nemec? Is that a joke? Nemec in untouchable and if he were to be moved, the trade would be 1 for 1. Holtz, Sharangovich, 2023 1st, 2024 3rd for Meier and Bonino

Not joking, but as I said, I'm sure y'all are opposed becaus Nemec plus Holtz would be more than Meier's value -- which I already consider quite high. But I just don't see a reason to give up Meier for Holtz (who, while being a very good prospect, still is very unlikely to reach Meier's level) + the usual package of young third-line winger and a late first. Late firsts usually churn out third-line players (if that). Sharangovich, who I see value in, will never be more than a supporting second-line winger. If Holtz hits and becomes a first-line goal scorer, then great, but that's not as historically likely as people often think.

I don't think it's one-for-one. No matter how good Nemec is/will be, he's not a can't-miss (almost no such thing) and defensemen usually take a while to develop. Maybe Nemec plus the late first (and dump Johnsson) to SJ for Meier (50% retained) and Bonino. If I'm building a franchise to win Cups, I would focus on acquiring/keeping elite talent. You can always find role players in the middle rounds of drafts and in free agency. Always. What you can't find easily are top-line/pairing players. Meier is one. So, with the benefit of his qualifying offer in my back pocket, Grier has some leverage and doesn't need to rush a trade. He has 12 months to trade Meier if he wants. With that in mind, and with Meier now the top talent on the market, Grier should be holding out for a haul. The worst case scenario is they don't get a massive package of assets and they trade him next year -- or just re-sign him. My hope is, with how many ludicrous trades real NHL GMs make, that Grier will be patient. Holtz + Nemec for Meier is too much but it's not nearly as one-sided as trading Huberdeau, Weeger, a first, and change for Tkachuk. And the Panthers are rightly suffering for that.

I think while it's reported there's a lot of teams interested in Meier, the truth of the situation is the Devils and maybe the Jets are the only teams that can afford to extend him, that's where the trade leverage takes a little hit. The Rangers can't pay him $9M next season and neither can the Leafs. Winnipeg is one of the least aggressive teams when it comes to the deadline, I don't see them willing to pay a player more than they're paying Wheeler.

There's no way a team trades 2 A prospects for a pending RFA with a $10M QO in this cap environment. Maybe it's Nemec or Holtz, but certainly not both. The Sharks are not getting a DeBrincat return. DeBrincat had a year on his contract left, Meier is expiring.

Fiala, a star winger just as good as Meier went for #19 pick + B level prospect.
Mark Stone, one of the best two way wingers in the game went for Brännström + a 2nd rd pick.
Taylor Hall, coming off a MVP season got the Devils a 1st + B level prospect + 2 warm bodies.
Alex DeBrincat, coming off two consecutive 40+ goal (per 82 games) seasons got the Blackhawks pick #7 in a rather underwhelming draft + 2nd + 3rd.

Why are you even talking about Nemec?
The Sharks aren't even a lock to get Holtz + a 1st rd pick...