Sharks aren't eating $15,750,000 on Erik Karlsson, For a cap dump in Tyson Barrie a lesser valued Jesse Puljujarvi and a late 1st and 2nd round pick.

Finally, a plausible Karlsson to Edmonton trade. The only matter left is if Grier is satisfied by the return and if Karlsson waives for Edmonton.

Someone is going to complain about the retention but it is under 11m in real dollars and others will complain about the value without acknowledging that there won't be many trade options and Karlsson's contract still has potential to handicap a team.

Oilers set a record for 500 goals scored in the post lockout era. But set another for 600 goals allowed.
Erik Karlsson is definitely not the answer for Edmonton.

Yes everyone should complain about the retention, come on now. If I were trading a Norris level dman (albeit on a crazy contract) and team wanted me to retain $3+M a year for 5 YEARS - you better be sending me value in return, and that ain’t value in return. SJ’s only motivation is to move out salary and kickstart a rebuild - what is coming back that’ll help them take meaningful steps to do that? Send me your 1st & top prospect (along with some cap dumps on short term deals) or take off, eh. Even Grier is not dumb enough to take that deal.

It's like 30% for 4 years, they might be able to flip Barrie or Puljujarvi elsewhere and you never know with Edmonton that those could be lottery picks, teams won't be knocking down the door for him, it's either Barrie or Zaitzev or someone else not worth mentioning

There's probably 10 other trades I'd prefer before this but I like to look at the options

Yes he is, and he’s on the sharks.

It’s $3M dead cap for this year & the next 4 years! And he’s the front runner for Norris trophy this year.
No way SJ agrees to retain for that package, imo. Minimum should be 1st + top prospect - otherwise keep him. I hope SJ learned their lesson from Brett Burns deal & Karlson > Burns.

Lets say they add Borberg, cuz i agree with you that the Oilers have to add more..i bet that trade is fairly realistic

I don’t know the oiler prospects but if he’s top 2-3 in their system, then i agree - you’re getting close.

Let's call it 4.5 years at best.

If you look at it from a financial perspective:
Karlsson only has 2m in salaries left this year, his future salaries is 39m, if you ask me getting out of paying over 28m is great. SJ doesn't have much cap space, and the move frees up 8.35m (that's currently enough cap to sign an elite player). His contract is pretty much buyout proof since it doesn't save them much cap and would require the team to pay 2/3 of his contract too.

With Burns being traded already, and Karlsson and Meier being made available, SJ is probably headed into some sort of rebuild, whether it be a 2-3 year or 5 year remains to be seen, but how much is Karlsson going to be an asset to SJ if he's on their squad?

Yes, Karlsson is a Norris caliber dman, but do you think he's going to be a Norris caliber D-man for 4 more years? His NMC can become very problematic if he drops off especially at 11.5m, since he can't be sent to the minors either if he doesn't want to be there.

His NMC and large reduced cap hit are going to limit his destinations, so it will also limit the return.

Getting off that contract would not be a dumb move by Grier regardless of the return if the plan is to rebuild anyways. He probably can get more but he's not getting a team's 1st+top prospect. Anyone willing to pay that price will just pursue Chychrun. Both guys have a lengthy injury history, but Chychrun is 8 years younger, and carries a cap hit that is 45% less than the retained amount here. Plus, he doesn't have a NMC.

Fine, you can have Lavoie.

Erik Karlson has won and looks to be front runner this year to win Norris. Chykrun will never be at that level. Prior to his injury, there was an argument that he was top 3 player in the league and he looks to be getting back close to that level. He’s only 32; with that contract doubtful he can be moved without retention but that will cost you. Imo - he could be the most impactful player on the trade block this year (and he has term); the deal proposed above is garbage and no way SJ accepts that.
If that’s all it takes the Leafs should jump in with a better offer, we have bags of money & cap space.

If this particular trade happend I think they could resign Meier

Doesn't matter that Karlsson is better than Chychrun.

Just merely moving Karlsson benefits the SJs if they are getting 8.35m back, that's enough to sign an elite player. If they are rebuilding, they don't need him. Their core isn't good enough to compete clearly, so it's time to dismantle the core. So, whatever assets they can recuperate it's a bonus. Couture and Vlasic are probably going nowhere.

I wonder how the Oilers would afford their guys though in the long-term if the cap only goes up like 20m in the next 4 years. Draisaitl is probably taking 5m more, Skinner could be 4.1m more, then there's Bouchard, Broberg, and Holloway if they amount to anything.

You brought up chykrun - I was just pointing out Karlson is at a different level, so not sure what your point was. Agree 100%, SJ should move him, but not for that garbage offer. He is an elite player and elite players - with term and a reasonable cap (assuming retention as proposed) - get more than a late 1st + mid level prospect + cap dumps back.
And your argument about saving cap space makes no sense - if they are rebuilding, there is no urgency to move him for cap space

This is probably in the range of the better offers they can receive while not retaining as much, no team is picking up EK at 11.5M who finally looks to be back from a history of injuries, is a gamble in fact the biggest gamble, not the most impactful, that's Kane, Toews, Horvat, Meier maybe Karlsson. Chychrun is a gamble but still young, almost 3 times cheaper and plays defense

Agree to disagree; karlson’s 6th in the league in scoring as a dman. He has 1 less goal & 10 more points than Meier as a dman! He would have way more impact than any of the forwards you mentioned and all of them will cost much more than what was shown above. Contract is tough but $3-4M retention puts him at $7.5-8.5M which is great value for a perennial Norris contender. He’s only 32 so as long as he stays healthy (& he looks fantastic so far), minimal risk. Just no way that’s the best offer for him. If it is, my Leafs should jump in - we can offer better than that

I mentioned Chychrun because if the ask on Karlsson is a 1st+top prospect, they might as well pursue him, especially a cap-strapped team like EDM. They could then also add someone else with the remaining 3.75m like Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews or a free agent next season. Karlsson is probably not having a larger impact than Chychrun and Kane or Toews combined.

Any team making an offer for Karlsson is probably offering a late 1st, so there really is no need to mention that, it's why there is the 2nd round pick too. Barrie is a good OFD (on pace for 50 pts) and sucks defensively but Karlsson is literally just an elite version of him, his cap hit isn't significant, so while he may have no value to SJ now, he is someone that they can move as a rental the following year. Puljujarvi is possibly a bust but he's an RFA up for an extension next year, he was a former 3rd OV pick so there's some upside there. They probably could get a B-level prospect too, but a GM who gives a top prospect and a current 1st for Karlsson at 8.35m or more would be the fool.

There's also the risk that Karlsson gets injured, he's been mediocre for years because of injuries. His history cannot be ignored. It's a very high risk move to acquire Karlsson, even if the reward is high.

By your logic, Ceci is similar to Hedman , just not an elite version.
When Karlson wins the Norris (again) and Barrie is still on oilers after they crash & burn( b/c if he could be flipped, he would have been by now) we’ll talk

The difference is one team is trying to compete and the other probably isn't. SJ will have 1 retention slot next year, and I'm sure they can get something for Barrie at 2.25m. No one is going to take Barrie off the Oilers to just help them, plus the Oilers won't be looking for assets since they are trying to win. Even if Barrie was a straight cap dump it doesn't matter since he's off the books after next season, Karlsson still has 4 more. My comment about Barrie vs Karlsson is just to say that Barrie is actually a good OFD, if he was a trash player, then Karlsson is overrated and is just a good player and not elite which is obviously not the case.

What exactly does Karlsson winning the Norris mean for SJ as an organization, if they aren't even a playoff team? There are so many players who would trade all their personal accolades for a cup.

I agree Karlsson is ELITE for about 50 games a season at least.

This would cost way too much real dollar for San Jose to accept. Barrie is owned close to 10mil, retention is 15 mil. Puljujarvi, late first and second is not worth that much.

The above retention is less than 15m, Karlsson's base salary is only 2m this season (bonus is already paid) and his future salaries are 39m. Barrie is owed 5m next year, so they could always just wait until the deadline where the Oilers have paid 2/3 of Barrie's 4.5m this year. However, Karlsson is owed 39m in future salaries 30% (3.45m retention) would be 11.7m in real dollars cost to them, so even if you want to call it 9.5m+3m+11.7m that SJ has to pay, they are still saving ~14.8m.