Quoting: Tintin
I couldn't disagree more, McLeod really shouldn't have a bigger role than as a 13-14th forward in the NHL.
Most nights the Devils got caved in with him on the ice at 5v5 and the PK was mediocre at best, the Devils were worse off with McLeod despite him winning more faceoffs than not.
This is due to the fact that faceoffs truly don't matter in the grand scheme of things.
On average they have no power to predict whether a goal is scored for or against in any given sequence, whereas being able to successfully breakout from a d zone possession and transition the puck up the ice does matter.
If the McLeod-Johnsson tradeoff is a substantially lowered faceoff percentage in exchange for an overall more talented and valuable player drawing into the lineup, I'm going with Johnsson everytime.
The same goes for any McLeod-Boqvist tradeoff, Boqvist is more talented in every valuable aspect of the game (aside from straight-line speed) and should always be picked ahead of McLeod when available.
Losing a faceoff in your own zone does lead to a higher probability of getting scored upon. And also, this is one of those areas where “stats” can be misleading. When you are baking all situations, all teams into one big data cake, it’s understanding how some arrive at that conclusion.
But if you account for teams play style, game situation, and zone, you would find the correlations of FO% to GF% becomes meaningful.
Another way to look at it: Say I offer you a challenge in a coin-flip contest. We will flip 1,000 times and if you win 67% or more, I will pay you $1,000. If you win 33% or less, you pay me $1,000. Fair? Since the probability of one getting 667 wins out of 1000 flips is about one-septillion-to-one. What if I offered the same deal, with only 3 flips, we would each have 50/50 chance of losing $1000.