Quoting: qc14
I agree that pageau will be a better player than eller next year. The margin is not great enough to justify paying him 5m for the next four years, especially given that by the last one or two years it will be a problem contract (as Eller is currently -- the only reason he is still on the team is because of the weird backstrom situation). A forward's prime is ages 24-29. Pageau's contract doesn't cover the "back half" of it, it covers what are most likely to be his least productive years.
This is all without even mentioning that the caps would be giving up their first round pick in the best draft in 8 years just to get a second in two years back, or that it is very possible that Backstrom comes back this year or next and so taking on long term money isn't the smartest move, or that they have no incentive to help a division rival bring in Kane and Kadri.
I will have to disagree on a forwards prime ages when so many players are producing very well into their 32 age season with players even this past season like Kreider, Kadri, Duchene, Nelson, etc. At 32 I would not give a forward a contract for more then 2 years (unless it was an elite player like Crosby, Ovie, Stamkos) but there is no reason Pageau will not continue to be a top end 3C who is consistently around the 40 point mark while providing top level defense and great to have at the end of games when you need to win critical face offs.
While I completely agree the Caps would not want to give up a 1st (I think Pageau's worth is 2 2nds), in no way is his contract an albatross. Sure, I would like Pageau for the next 4 years at $4M but he can be moved fairly easily to teams that are looking for centers. An albatross is a contract that is completely immovable like Price, Brobovsky, Karlson unless the team is retaining 50% and even adding a sweetener after.