we want RHD that aren't small and can play shutdown too. Marin Kaut is 22 and hasn't made the NHL yet. 1st will be late too. This doesn't do it for Horvat because it doesn't fit our needs at all. If u want Horvat ur sending us Newhook or Byram and a 1st since we can sign him next year and there's no pressure to move him. You could try and get Miller without paying as much since he is older and maybe we cant sign him, but u won't be able to sign him either so its a pure rental. But the avs roster would be really good with miller at 2C. It would probably be worth it to get Miller cause avs will probably win the cup again and then new hook will be ready for 2C the year after

Holy overpay, Batman! You'd be lucky to get Girard for Horvat 1 for 1. That's not a situation in which the Avs add IMO.

Is it just common for Canadian fan bases to overrate their players? Genuine question here. I find that it's predominantly isolated to the Habs and Leafs bases, but you thinking that one year of Horvat would get you Byram or Newhook is asinine to me.

There is no chance we’d get Byram, let alone Byram and a 1st. I could maybe see Newhook getting moved but even that seems unlikely. Canucks and Avs aren’t really good trade partners after the Avs moved Barron/Helleson though

I think every fan base does it, especially with players like Horvat who are the captain and a fan favourite. Some fan bases are definitely worse than others (MTL/TOR) but I’ve seen a fair share of Canucks fans overvalue our players

L.O.L. did you just make that comment after saying VAN would be lucky to get Girard for Horvat, 1-for-1?? Talk about overvaluing your players. This is why its tough to discuss Hockey with American fan bases.

Montreal fans are far and away the worst. These Girard discussions just fascinate me because he's a top-4 defenseman who was in consideration for the Norris in '20-'21, yet he's apparently worth peanuts whereas Horvat (a decent 2C no doubt) with 1 year left is somehow worth Byram.

Let's have a look, shall we? We'll use the Barrie/Kadri trade as a model since Horvat is such a similar player. In that trade, the Avs got Kadri, Rosen, and a 3rd in exchange for Barrie, Kerfoot, and a 6th. Kadri had 3 years remaining on his deal with Barrie only having one year left. In this trade, Horvat has one year left whereas Girard is signed for the next 5 years on a team-friendly deal ($1m more than Gudbranson, lol). Girard is far and away better than Barrie, and the term in his contract holds immense value in this flat cap world. Horvat is no doubt valuable, but arguing that he is a 1st and a prospect more valuable than Girard is laughable.

Im not making any argument or the sort, brother. You said VAN would be lucky to get Girard for Horvat, straight up. Directly, after saying the VAN fan base was overvaluing its player. Using a convoluted trade from the past that has nothing to do with the 1-for-1 you brought up is weird. The burden-of-proof is on you to support your claim that Girard is more valuable than Horvat (because VAN would be "lucky" to swap players).

im not necessarily overrating the player himself. What im really trying to say is that Horvat is sooo much more useful to canucks then Girard, Kaut and a 1st. We have OEL Hughes and Rathbone who are all similar to Girard. The last thing we need is an offensive LHD. And since we can re-sign Horvat, there's zero reason to trade him as a rental. So from our perspective, Girard Kaut and a late first is literal trash in return for Horvat. Unless Horvat suddenly does not want to re-sign and wants to go to America, which is highly unlikely, Canucks have every last bit of leverage in this trade and COL has zero. That's why if Horvat goes to COL it will be for much better pieces than Girard Kaut and a 1st. Also, good left handed D grow on trees nowadays, but extremely solid 2 way centres with size and that have the 2nd highest face-off % in the NHL do not grow on trees. So in terms of the player as an individual Horvat is way more valuable than Girard.

Haha fair enough. I disagree with the fact that the Kadri trade has nothing to do with this one since Horvat and Kadri are nearly identical in many respects, but hey, your call.

Comparable Center Trades:
2021: Sam Reinhart to Florida for Devon Levi & a 1st to Buffalo (signing rights)
2021: Pavel Buchnevich to St. Louis for Sammy Blais & a 2nd to New York (signing rights)

Given that Horvat has one year left on his deal, let's argue he's valued at a blue chip prospect and a low-first/high second.

Comparable Defense Trades:
2022: Ben Chiarot (pending UFA) to Florida for Ty Smilanic, a '23 1st, and a '22 4th
2021: Seth Jones (1 year remaining), '21 1st, and '22 6th to Chicago for Adam Boqvist, '21 1st, '21 2nd, and a '22 1st to Columbus

Now one could argue Seth Jones is more valuable that he plays on the right side (which Girard is capable of), but given Girard's term, let's say his value is somewhere between Chiarot and Jones.

Feel like that's a fair review of the respective values, no?

It has to do with our situation though. We have the ability to re-sign Horvat and we most definitely will unless he wants to leave. So it really isn't trading a rental from our perspective if we plan on signing him. That's why his value to us is much higher than Girard Kaut and a 1st, and if we trade him under these circumstances we will want a high quality piece in return that will fit into our roster that makes sense, which would be new hook. COL needs a 2C and Van doesnt need to trade Horvat, so we have leverage and therefore we ask for very good pieces in return.

Then argue that it's not a fit, not that Girard is somehow that much lower in value than Horvat. See my post above regarding similar trades.

I said before that good offensive LHD are basically growing on trees lately. Guys like Horvat who play a good two way game, put up points, have size and speed, and are a face-off specialist are very hard to find. Girard is very good but Horvat is more valuable on any team.

Okay so basically none of these players mentioned have anything to do with Horvat. Admittedly, Kadri is the best comparable but was like 1.5/2 years older than Bo. Bo is a legit goal scorer in addition to being one of the best faceoff centermen in the league. Aside from Kadri's outlier season this past year, Bo is the superior player. But since one of the things that sets him apart from the crowd is his finishing ability.

Goals/82 Games played in previous 4 seasons before trade
Kadri = 25.5
Reinhart (who is NOT a full time center) = 26.8
Buchnevich (who is NOT a center) = 22.4

Horvat = 29.3.

The Seth Jones return was HIGH the moment it happened and everyone knew it, also not the same kind of under-sized defender that Girard is. Chiarot is a 6'3 234lb stay-at-home defender, I dont think I need to point out he is a different kind of defender than Girard.

Feel like we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

Would you rather have Horvat or Girard on your team right now?

That's my bad on Buchnevich. I was looking through the past three years of trades for comparables and thought I'd remembered him as a C. As for Horvat and Kadri comparable, they're more similar than you think:

Points Per Game: 0.69 (Kadri) vs. 0.64 (Horvat)
Goals Per Game: 0.30 (Kadri) vs. 0.30 (Horvat)
Corsi %: 51.5% (Kadri) vs. 48.6% (Horvat)

They're legit the same player aside from age and a slight edge to Horvat in faceoffs.

As for defensive comparables, it could not be more challenging to find a comparable trade for Girard. If you're arguing that size somehow plays an enormous role in value, then sure, go for it. As for how they compare statistically though, Girard is right there with those guys on Corsi %, points per game, and takeaways. He's also far and away the better zone exit player. We can definitely agree on the Jones overpay though, that's for sure; hence why I argued the value was somewhere in between. Still not hearing an argument as to why Girard is less valuable than either of those guys though.

I’d take Miller also but I would pay more for Horvat, this is my pipe dream, canucks should obviously move on from Miller before Horvat. What I’m looking at is next year when Miller and Horvat are both UFA would the canucks really re-up both centers when they have Elias? Plus they have some bad contracts on the back end that should be moved before signing more and Girard would help with replacing talent.

You keep moving the goalposts on our conversation. The discussion (debate) is that Girard is more valuable than Horvat, not that "Girard is less valuable than either of those guys." You have NOT provided reason to say that Girard is more valuable than Horvat, unequivocally. All you've done is bring up a bunch of players that have nothing to do with either player in our discussion.

Neither of us is qualified whatsoever to establish the value of these players on their own, so I'm attempting to establish a frame of reference for our conversation using previously agreed to deals. What I HAVE done is provided reference points for valuing Horvat and Girard, which from my vantage point, favors Girard. Though you seem to be doing all you can to ignore that fact and coming up with excuses (Girard's size, Kadri and Horvat not the same player, etc.) as to why those reference points somehow don't apply.

You should have thought about how "neither of us is qualified whatsoever to establish the value of these players" before establishing that Girard is apparently more valuable than Horvat. You opened the conversation with a statement that needed support and haven't been able to provide that support.

I gave you two reference trades with defenseman that demonstrated they are generally valued higher than forwards, as well as another trade involving an extremely similar player in Kadri. You are the one choosing to ignore those facts, but hey, you do you.

Kadri is the only player that bares any resemblance to Horvat or Girard. And with that one player, all we have agreed on is that he was less valuable at the time of his trade than Horvat is now. But you did not prove that Girard is more valuable to an NHL team than Horvat is.

I have attempted to do so, but historical trades involving a top-4 defenseman signed to a 5 year team-friendly deal are few and far between. The closest comparison will likely be the Chychrun trade (when it inevitably happens), and the rumors there are two 1sts, a top prospect, and a good young player. Chychrun is no doubt better than Girard, but the term in those contracts clearly carries value in today's NHL and it is extremely difficult to quantify without comparables. Jones is likely the closest behind Chychrun, which we both agreed was too expensive. The question then is how much did the Hawks overpay and can we then compare that to the packages I referenced for Horvat (a 1st and a good young prospect)? Even if you don't consider Reinhart or Buchnevich the same players, that is arguably the going price for a top-6 forward. At a high-level, even if you took out one of the 1st round picks that Chicago paid, a defenseman still appears to be considered more valuable than a forward.

As for my initial comment, you will have to forgive the posturing, but it gets old seeing Girard so undervalued. Bit of a hot take on my part.