22-26 is peak for most players. The exception being that the decline is usually much more gradual for players at the top end.

If we take take Fiala as an example this is tracking. He’s been on a 60 pt pace two years prior and 85 pts this year (age 24). That means he has 2 more years of “peak” which is probably 70 pts. I think he’s a 60 pt guy except in a year 6/7 of his next deal where he’s probably a 50 pt guy. He’s the age to lock up a guy long term and get value over the deal.

I think Fiala is closer to the top of the distribution than the center meaning he’s a pretty safe bet. But you’re reading the same stuff I am.

Not to quibble, but Fiala was on a 30 goal 70 point pace the last two years before this one. He's a 70 point player on his own without top six linemate help.

Saying he's only a 60 point player is just... odd.

I do not think you will be getting 2, Mercer, or Holtz.

I agree that that's likely the case and if any of them move it would probably be Holtz. But it is upsetting as a fan knowing that Fiala's value is likely Holtz or Mercer. Is it likely for the Devils to be able to retain Holtz if he breaks out and they acquire Fiala? Or will he become trade bait then?

Very likely not.

But he switches to a 10-team M-NTC this off-season. So moving him is potentially doable. And if it meant keeping Fiala, Guerin should at least explore that option. Zuccarello will be 36 this year but has demonstrated he is more than capable of still producing with elite/high-end talent the past two seasons as Kaprizov's partner in goal crimes.

But no, I don't see it happening. I don't think it'd be wise to upset our franchise winger. Y'know...

Otherwise, I agree 100%. That's why the lowball offers from Devils fans irk me so damn much.

Well as long as you remember that the return for a trade is based solely on the cap hit of the extension and not the actual player you're getting, you'll be fine...