With Weber on LTIR and assuming that Kotkaniemi is bridged for 2 years @ approximately 2.5M AAV, the Habs would have around 2.2M in cap space left for 2021-2022; likely 3.9M if Byron is indeed out until early 2022.
In any event, without shedding existing contracts, not enough to significantly upgrade the Habs’ current weaknesses, namely an experienced C to share middle-6 duties with KK and, even more dire, a top-4 PMD who can contribute offensively.
I thus see two possibilities for next year:
1) Double-down on the current roster and hope for the best :
- If the kids do end up rising to the occasion, some tweakings could then be made around TDL to add some playoffs warriors. (Glass half-full scenario)
- If the kids sink rather than swim, the Habs could on the other end sell expiring contracts (Chiarot, Lekhonen, ie.) at the TDL to the highest bidder for future assets, which could then be used in trades to acquire talented players who fit with the Habs’ young core and/or to overpay to get rid of Byron’s last year of contract (and/or Drouin’s, if he doesn’t rebound) at a less prohibitive price than this offseason. (Glass half-empty scenario, but with a potential silver lining)
2) Use the Habs’ deep prospect pool, depth on the wings and numerous picks to aggressively pursue missing pieces before the beginning of the 2021-2022 season :
- This strategy however entails that Montreal must absolutely shed salary in the process. In that regard, besides Lekhonen - and maybe Kulak - I don’t see any other contract who could be shipped elsewhere without the Habs having to add some significant incentives (Byron’s AAV and injury; Drouin’s AAV and clouded future, ie.)
- Bearing that in mind, the Habs should try to build up a package centered around Kulak/Lekhnonen (approx. 4M for the pair) + Prospects and Picks in order to fill their most dire need, namely a top-4 PMD.
- Vince Dunn, who recently signed two years for 4M AAV with Seattle, might now be off the table. If not, he should be a prime target. Alternatively, Carson Soucy / Jérémie Lauzon are also an interesting, less expensive options from Seattle. I list defensemen from the Kraken since it appears to be a good trading partner for the Habs; Seattle indeed has an overflow of D (and might thus have to expose 1 or 2 young D on waivers if no further moves are made), still lacks some quality forwards and has obviously a very shallow prospect pool.
- More ambitiously, the Habs could make a hard pitch to pry Samuel Girard from Colorado. The latter’s contract’s value is optimal (5M AAV) in light of the rate at which offensive Ds are signing nowadays ; he would not obviously come cheap, even with a disappointing postseason last year. Colorado is a legitimate contender and a package for future assets might not be as enticing as it would be for the Kraken. This being said, since the Avalanche has no picks in the first two rounds in what promises to be a very deep draft next year, maybe : a 1st + a 2nd + Lekhonen + Kulak + One quality prospect among Harris/Struble/Norlinder/Ylonen could be enough?
bad offer for girard. toffoli ++, or suzuki or caufield straight up.
Agreed, there isn't really a deal between these two teams that'd make any sense. Colorado has their roster locked up for the year, and has some cap space to add at the deadline if needed. Zero reason to move Girard without a crippling overpay.
What a garbage offer for Girard. You want a top pairing 23 yr old dman on a long term team friendly deal, you are overpaying not giving a hodge podge of stuff not useful to the Avs. The response from COL would be yeah we will need Romanov and the draft picks.
I had a inkling that I was likely underestimating Girard’s contract value in light of all these recent 9M+ AAV deals and see that I severely overreached in my humble proposal. I was initially aiming for a deal with the Kraken for Dunn (same package, but a 3rd instead of the 1st) and should definitely have revised even more my package before switching to Girard!
In retrospect however, it would be near-impossible to fit Girard under the cap with a revised offer around Lekhonen, Romanov, Harris/Struble/Norlinder, 1st and 2nd - at least without shedding another contract elsewhere.
(This being said, let’s not forget that the Avalanche owes the Habs a great deal for obtaining Patrick Roy for scraps. Girard could be the long-awaited consolation prize, Hehe.)