I put math in hockey
Rejoint: juin 2018
Messages: 624
Mentions "j'aime": 167
Alright, so the first problem I see here is basically the entire D corps. In terms of 3-year GAR from Even strength defence, this Oilers top-4 features the worst (Keith), third-worst (Barrie), and 10th-worst (Nurse) defensemen in the NHL. 75% of your top-4 being bottom-10 defensively is not good, especially when your two star forwards are the third-worst and fifth-worst defensive forwards in the league. Darcy Kuemper has got his work cut out for him.
The defensive woes can of course be overcome by strong enough offensive talent. Unfortunately, Keith's numbers are sub-replacement level and Nurse's 15.2 total GAR and Barrie's 14.1 put them in the vicinity of players like Michal Kempny, Erik Gustafsson, and Christian Djoos. Imagine a top-4 of Keith-Djoos and Gustafsson-Larsson, and I don't think you'll be all that impressed. Remarkably, GAR also has Larsson below replacement level due to godawful offensive impacts. I wouldn't go that far, Hockeyviz has him as more of a Hjalmarsson/Savard-level defender, and his GAR numbers are penalizing him for poor on-ice finishing, which, even with a 3-year sample, probably isn't his fault given how little he shoots. Regardless, this top-4 is optimistically 3 second-pair guys and a sub-replacement level guy, and even an above-average third pair isn't gonna salvage that blueline.
Up front is way, way better, but Yams and Haula are projected to cost 1 and 1.6 (roughly) million more than you gave them, which I don't see being available on this roster (Barrie's also projected to cost an extra 1.2 million, which is just one more excellent argument for not bringing him back)
That Arizona trade is one of the cleverest trades I've seen on this website, but the signings on this one do not add up.